luckadjusted
NFL Week 3 · 2026

2022 NFL season · final

Turnover luck, 2022: who the fumbles bounced for

The Colts recovered 32 of the 51 fumbles in their games in 2022, 6.2 more than chance would give, worth +1.13 wins. The Jets recovered 12 of 36, 6.0 fewer than expected (−0.06 wins).

A loose ball goes back to the team that fumbled it 51.7% of the time, whoever fumbled it and wherever. Beating that rate doesn’t last: a team’s recovery rate one season correlates with the next at 0.09 (192 team-seasons since 2019). Luck in wins counts each bounce by the moment it came: a fumble recovered late in a tied game is worth most of a win, one in a blowout next to nothing. Regular season only. Methodology

Fumble recoveries by team, 2022

Every fumble in a team’s games, its own and its opponents’: how many it came away with, against how many a 51.7% bounce would give.

#TeamFumblesRecoveredRateAbove expectedLuck in winsOwn fumbles keptOpponents’ won
1 Colts 513263% +6.2 +1.13 21 of 3511 of 16
2 Raiders 271867% +4.4 +0.92 11 of 157 of 12
3 Commanders 312065% +4.4 +0.45 11 of 189 of 13
4 Panthers 392462% +4.3 +0.35 17 of 257 of 14
5 Cowboys 402460% +4.3 +0.87 7 of 1217 of 28
6 Lions 291862% +3.5 +0.20 8 of 1510 of 14
7 Ravens 372157% +2.5 +0.06 10 of 1811 of 19
8 Patriots 412356% +2.5 −0.63 12 of 2111 of 20
9 Bears 502754% +1.9 +0.23 18 of 279 of 23
10 Vikings 372054% +1.5 +0.35 10 of 1810 of 19
11 Bengals 281554% +1.1 +0.26 4 of 1011 of 18
12 49ers 321753% +1.0 +0.10 7 of 1510 of 17
13 Cardinals 442352% +1.0 −0.04 14 of 229 of 22
14 Eagles 412151% +0.5 −0.26 11 of 2110 of 20
15 Broncos 472451% +0.4 −0.29 16 of 258 of 22
16 Chiefs 351851% +0.4 −0.21 9 of 209 of 15
17 Falcons 311548% −0.6 −0.34 8 of 197 of 12
18 Jaguars 361747% −1.0 −0.19 4 of 1713 of 19
19 Saints 361747% −1.1 −0.13 10 of 207 of 16
20 Giants 371746% −1.4 +0.16 5 of 1512 of 22
21 Dolphins 331545% −1.4 −0.24 9 of 156 of 18
22 Rams 311445% −1.5 −0.03 8 of 166 of 15
23 Steelers 271244% −1.5 −0.19 9 of 143 of 13
24 Packers 391846% −1.6 +0.28 11 of 217 of 18
25 Chargers 381745% −1.9 −0.17 8 of 179 of 21
26 Texans 512345% −2.3 −0.49 12 of 2111 of 30
27 Seahawks 401743% −2.9 −0.44 7 of 1810 of 22
28 Bills 472043% −3.5 −0.56 11 of 249 of 23
29 Titans 391641% −3.6 −0.44 10 of 226 of 17
30 Buccaneers 371438% −4.4 −0.24 4 of 1610 of 21
31 Browns 391436% −5.3 −0.41 5 of 149 of 25
32 Jets 361233% −6.0 −0.06 8 of 174 of 19

Fumbles: every fumble in the team’s regular-season games where the ball was loose, its own and its opponents’. Above expected: recoveries minus the 51.7% each fumbler keeps on average. Luck in wins: each bounce’s swing in win probability at the moment it came, net of the opponent’s.

And interceptions?

Interceptions are only partly luck. FTN’s charting marks every throw a defender could have caught. How many of those a team throws is mostly its quarterback: it carries over from one season to the next at 0.39. Whether the defense holds on is closer to chance (0.02, 96 team-seasons), but within a season it runs with team quality, so our luck numbers leave interceptions out (methodology). Here are both sides, 2022.

TeamIts interception-worthy throwsPickedOpponents’ interception-worthy throwsCaughtCaught vs expected
Cowboys 3015 2615+4.6
Ravens 3313 2213+4.2
Eagles 208 2815+3.8
Lions 267 2312+2.8
Chargers 218 2914+2.4
Patriots 2412 3918+2.4
Vikings 3214 3014+2.0
Chiefs 2310 2311+1.8
Packers 2512 3616+1.6
Steelers 2612 3616+1.6
Bears 3015 3214+1.2
49ers 298 3716+1.2
Rams 3111 2511+1.0
Broncos 3514 3314+0.8
Raiders 3012 146+0.4
Buccaneers 3410 2410+0.4
Colts 4020 229+0.2
Bengals 2010 3213+0.2
Browns 2711 25100.0
Commanders 3916 2080.0
Seahawks 3012 3614−0.4
Texans 3718 3513−1.0
Cardinals 3215 269−1.4
Titans 2510 3111−1.4
Falcons 208 269−1.4
Dolphins 4314 248−1.6
Bills 3512 3612−2.4
Jaguars 258 3812−3.2
Panthers 319 3410−3.6
Jets 4013 3610−4.4
Giants 206 306−6.0
Saints 2813 337−6.2

Interception-worthy throws: FTN Data via nflverse. Expected catches use each defense’s own record on such throws, shrunk toward that season’s league rate.

Questions

Which NFL team had the most fumble luck in 2022?

The Colts: they recovered 32 of the 51 fumbles in their games (63%), 6.2 more than expected, worth +1.13 wins, the most in the league.

Is turnover luck real?

For fumbles, yes. A loose ball goes back to the team that fumbled it 51.7% of the time, and a team that beats that rate one season doesn't the next: the correlation between consecutive seasons is 0.09 over 192 team-seasons since 2019. Interceptions are different: how many interception-worthy passes a quarterback throws carries over (0.39), so part of a team's turnover margin is skill.

Do teams that recover a lot of fumbles keep doing it?

No. Recovery rates since 2019 carry over from one season to the next at 0.09, close to the zero a coin would give. Teams at the top of this table usually land near the middle a year later.

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