2024 NFL season · final

Injury luck, 2024: who lost the most to injuries

The Cowboys lost the most to injuries in 2024: key players missed 80 games, worth 97.5 points, most of all Dak Prescott (QB, 7 games). The Ravens lost the least, 6.2 points. Net of their opponents’ injuries, the Cowboys were the unluckiest (−1.31 wins).

Every regular-season game, the engine checks which key players each team was missing before kickoff (a key player: half the snaps or more over his previous eight games) and values them by position, quality and playing time. Losing players is luck; so is facing a team that’s missing its own. Unlike a fumble bounce, it lasts: an injured player is out for weeks. Methodology

Injuries by team, 2024

#	Team	Key-player games missed	Value lost, points	Opponents missing, points	Injury luck in wins	Biggest absences
1	Cowboys	80	97.5	28.2	−1.31	Dak Prescott (QB, 7 games), Trevon Diggs (CB, 6 games)
2	Saints	83	77.3	32.8	−0.81	Derek Carr (QB, 7 games), Paulson Adebo (CB, 7 games)
3	49ers	96	72.1	32.7	−0.78	Brock Purdy (QB, 2 games), Brandon Aiyuk (WR, 7 games)
4	Dolphins	52	70.0	33.2	−0.79	Tua Tagovailoa (QB, 6 games), Kendall Fuller (CB, 6 games)
5	Jaguars	41	57.0	31.7	−0.50	Trevor Lawrence (QB, 7 games), Evan Engram (TE, 8 games)
6	Eagles	42	49.7	35.8	−0.32	Jalen Hurts (QB, 2 games), James Bradberry (CB, 7 games)
7	Rams	57	42.3	27.7	−0.28	Puka Nacua (WR, 6 games), Cooper Kupp (WR, 5 games)
8	Buccaneers	71	39.3	48.6	+0.15	Antoine Winfield Jr. (FS, 8 games), Chris Godwin (WR, 7 games)
9	Panthers	84	39.0	31.2	−0.06	Adam Thielen (WR, 7 games), Derrick Brown (DT, 6 games)
10	Giants	78	36.7	46.0	+0.27	Andrew Thomas (T, 7 games), Theo Johnson (TE, 5 games)
11	Jets	65	36.3	34.2	−0.03	Tyron Smith (T, 7 games), Allen Lazard (WR, 5 games)
12	Raiders	71	35.1	37.1	+0.04	Maxx Crosby (DE, 5 games), Christian Wilkins (DT, 7 games)
13	Texans	71	35.0	33.2	−0.05	Stefon Diggs (WR, 7 games), Nico Collins (WR, 5 games)
14	Colts	68	33.8	40.9	+0.14	Braden Smith (T, 5 games), Ryan Kelly (C, 7 games)
15	Packers	36	32.6	46.7	+0.21	Jordan Love (QB, 2 games), Jaire Alexander (CB, 9 games)
16	Chiefs	49	32.0	26.0	−0.06	Patrick Mahomes (QB, 1 game), Rashee Rice (WR, 6 games)
17	Lions	68	30.1	34.0	+0.05	Aidan Hutchinson (DE, 7 games), Taylor Decker (T, 3 games)
18	Browns	79	29.8	30.6	+0.10	David Njoku (TE, 6 games), Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB, 7 games)
19	Bengals	58	25.1	28.7	+0.07	Tee Higgins (WR, 5 games), Trent Brown (T, 7 games)
20	Titans	57	25.0	49.9	+0.55	L'Jarius Sneed (CB, 7 games), Quandre Diggs (FS, 7 games)
21	Patriots	64	24.4	36.3	+0.24	Ja'Whaun Bentley (LB, 7 games), David Andrews (C, 7 games)
22	Chargers	50	23.3	27.1	+0.07	Asante Samuel Jr. (CB, 7 games), Alohi Gilman (SS, 6 games)
23	Bills	39	22.2	26.7	+0.07	Taron Johnson (CB, 5 games), Dalton Kincaid (TE, 3 games)
24	Vikings	40	21.3	26.2	+0.10	Christian Darrisaw (T, 7 games), T.J. Hockenson (TE, 5 games)
25	Seahawks	44	20.4	36.5	+0.32	Abraham Lucas (T, 7 games), Stone Forsythe (T, 7 games)
26	Cardinals	44	17.2	33.1	+0.32	Will Hernandez (G, 7 games), Matt Prater (K, 7 games)
27	Bears	48	17.0	28.5	+0.24	Braxton Jones (T, 5 games), Jaquan Brisker (SS, 7 games)
28	Steelers	33	14.8	25.4	+0.23	George Pickens (WR, 3 games), Alex Highsmith (LB, 6 games)
29	Commanders	43	14.6	39.4	+0.37	Jonathan Allen (DT, 7 games), Marshon Lattimore (CB, 2 games)
30	Broncos	33	14.1	48.0	+0.59	Mike McGlinchey (T, 4 games), Alex Singleton (LB, 7 games)
31	Falcons	31	11.4	37.7	+0.52	Drew Dalman (C, 7 games), DeMarcco Hellams (SS, 6 games)
32	Ravens	13	6.2	28.5	+0.34	Marcus Williams (FS, 3 games), Marlon Humphrey (CB, 1 game)

Value lost: the points of play the missing players were worth, summed over games. Injury luck in wins: each game’s injury gap in win probability, the opponent’s missing players counted in the team’s favor. Snap counts arrive a few days after a game, so the latest games may not count yet.

Questions

What was the most injured NFL team in 2024?

The Cowboys, by what their missing players were worth: 80 games missed by key players, 97.5 points of play in all. A key player is one who played at least half the snaps over his previous eight games.

How are injuries valued?

Each missing key player costs his position’s value, scaled by how good he is against a typical starter and how much he played. A quarterback is valued as the drop from the starter to the one who played instead, from their passing. The same loss counts in the opponent’s favor.

Are injuries luck?

Mostly. Which team loses players barely carries over from one season to the next: 0.08 over 192 team-seasons since 2019. Within a season it does, because an injured player is out for weeks, so injury luck doesn’t even out the way a fumble bounce does.

Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019

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