2020 NFL season · final

Injury luck, 2020: who lost the most to injuries

The 49ers lost the most to injuries in 2020: key players missed 110 games, worth 102.6 points, most of all Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, 8 games). The Colts lost the least, 13.5 points. Net of their opponents’ injuries, the 49ers were the unluckiest (−1.48 wins).

Every regular-season game, the engine checks which key players each team was missing before kickoff (a key player: half the snaps or more over his previous eight games) and values them by position, quality and playing time. Losing players is luck; so is facing a team that’s missing its own. Unlike a fumble bounce, it lasts: an injured player is out for weeks. Methodology

Injuries by team, 2020

#	Team	Key-player games missed	Value lost, points	Opponents missing, points	Injury luck in wins	Biggest absences
1	49ers	110	102.6	26.1	−1.48	Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, 8 games), Richard Sherman (CB, 8 games)
2	Cowboys	97	94.3	35.6	−1.05	Dak Prescott (QB, 7 games), Tyron Smith (T, 7 games)
3	Bengals	74	52.0	30.3	−0.32	Joe Burrow (QB, 6 games), Geno Atkins (DT, 4 games)
4	Saints	41	51.3	27.4	−0.46	Drew Brees (QB, 4 games), Michael Thomas (WR, 9 games)
5	Eagles	92	47.3	42.1	−0.12	Lane Johnson (T, 8 games), Zach Ertz (TE, 5 games)
6	Broncos	81	43.9	31.1	−0.34	Courtland Sutton (WR, 7 games), Elijah Wilkinson (T, 7 games)
7	Titans	71	37.4	34.2	−0.08	Taylor Lewan (T, 7 games), Adoree' Jackson (CB, 6 games)
8	Chiefs	43	37.0	31.5	−0.10	Mitchell Schwartz (T, 7 games), Patrick Mahomes (QB, 1 game)
9	Texans	72	36.0	24.3	−0.21	Gareon Conley (CB, 7 games), Will Fuller (WR, 5 games)
10	Chargers	61	35.3	43.7	+0.15	Melvin Ingram (DE, 9 games), Derwin James (FS, 7 games)
11	Jets	85	34.4	32.7	−0.01	Brian Poole (CB, 7 games), Chris Hogan (WR, 6 games)
12	Ravens	47	33.2	44.4	+0.20	Ronnie Stanley (T, 8 games), Lamar Jackson (QB, 1 game)
13	Panthers	53	32.0	29.1	−0.07	Russell Okung (T, 9 games), Teddy Bridgewater (QB, 1 game)
14	Vikings	58	31.4	31.3	−0.04	Danielle Hunter (DE, 7 games), Holton Hill (CB, 6 games)
15	Jaguars	93	31.0	26.4	−0.07	Josh Lambo (K, 11 games), C.J. Henderson (CB, 8 games)
16	Lions	67	30.1	32.7	+0.10	Kenny Golladay (WR, 9 games), Desmond Trufant (CB, 8 games)
17	Seahawks	62	29.6	32.6	+0.04	Quinton Dunbar (CB, 9 games), Brandon Shell (T, 5 games)
18	Cardinals	65	28.1	43.4	+0.33	Chandler Jones (LB, 7 games), Larry Fitzgerald (WR, 3 games)
19	Washington	47	27.7	50.5	+0.48	Kyle Allen (QB, 5 games), Landon Collins (S, 7 games)
20	Giants	65	26.4	43.7	+0.37	Saquon Barkley (RB, 6 games), Daniel Jones (QB, 2 games)
21	Bills	52	25.8	31.9	+0.13	John Brown (WR, 7 games), Cody Ford (T, 7 games)
22	Steelers	47	25.6	49.9	+0.33	Ben Roethlisberger (QB, 1 game), Maurkice Pouncey (C, 3 games)
23	Falcons	48	25.5	42.1	+0.37	Julio Jones (WR, 7 games), Kaleb McGary (T, 2 games)
24	Browns	50	25.4	37.9	+0.20	Denzel Ward (CB, 4 games), Greedy Williams (CB, 7 games)
25	Raiders	62	24.1	24.2	+0.01	Tyrell Williams (WR, 7 games), Clelin Ferrell (DE, 5 games)
26	Packers	42	24.1	35.6	+0.21	David Bakhtiari (T, 4 games), Allen Lazard (WR, 6 games)
27	Patriots	45	22.8	35.7	+0.28	Stephon Gilmore (CB, 5 games), Julian Edelman (WR, 7 games)
28	Rams	38	21.8	33.9	+0.22	Jared Goff (QB, 1 game), Andrew Whitworth (OL, 7 games)
29	Buccaneers	37	20.8	26.6	+0.08	Vita Vea (DL, 7 games), Chris Godwin (WR, 4 games)
30	Dolphins	45	15.9	34.0	+0.31	Preston Williams (WR, 7 games), Austin Jackson (T, 3 games)
31	Bears	31	14.9	29.1	+0.30	Bobby Massie (OL, 7 games), James Daniels (OL, 7 games)
32	Colts	28	13.5	27.3	+0.25	Anthony Castonzo (T, 4 games), Malik Hooker (FS, 5 games)

Value lost: the points of play the missing players were worth, summed over games. Injury luck in wins: each game’s injury gap in win probability, the opponent’s missing players counted in the team’s favor. Snap counts arrive a few days after a game, so the latest games may not count yet.

Questions

What was the most injured NFL team in 2020?

The 49ers, by what their missing players were worth: 110 games missed by key players, 102.6 points of play in all. A key player is one who played at least half the snaps over his previous eight games.

How are injuries valued?

Each missing key player costs his position’s value, scaled by how good he is against a typical starter and how much he played. A quarterback is valued as the drop from the starter to the one who played instead, from their passing. The same loss counts in the opponent’s favor.

Are injuries luck?

Mostly. Which team loses players barely carries over from one season to the next: 0.08 over 192 team-seasons since 2019. Within a season it does, because an injured player is out for weeks, so injury luck doesn’t even out the way a fumble bounce does.

Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2019

2020 luck rankings · Turnover luck · Kicking luck · Every kind of luck