luckadjusted

Week 15 2019 · December 15, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jaguars at Raiders, Week 15 2019: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Raiders 20–16, but the Raiders played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 3.7 points to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:34 left): the Jaguars converted 3rd & 4, worth 25 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 20
Oakland Raiders 16

December 15, 2019 · Ring Central Coliseum · Closing line: Raiders −7

Luck index +75 Jaguars very lucky · −75 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 3, Raiders win 7.

  1. 1 JAX 22 OAK 6
  2. 2 JAX 20 OAK 13
  3. 3 JAX 24 OAK 21
  4. 4 JAX 8 OAK 10
  5. 5 JAX 21 OAK 26
  6. 6 JAX 16 OAK 24
  7. 7 JAX 13 OAK 23
  8. 8 JAX 13 OAK 27
  9. 9 JAX 22 OAK 41
  10. 10 JAX 2 OAK 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 25% of them, Raiders 75%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+2.8%
Jaguars by 9–166.6%
Jaguars by 1–814.3%
Level after regulation4.1%
Raiders by 1–826.8%
Raiders by 9–1621.5%
Raiders by 17+23.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jaguars by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 6.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Lambo, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Carlson, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • D. Carlson, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • D. Carlson, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Lambo, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • D. Carlson, 45 yds missed · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 94%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:13 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +10% JAX JAX: Field goal
2 Q1 6:31 The Raiders converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +8% OAK OAK: Field goal
3 Q2 8:20 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +5% JAX OAK: Punt
4 Q3 2:44 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +6% JAX JAX: Field goal
5 Q4 1:48 D. Carlson missed 45-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 2 of 5 from 45+ before +19% JAX OAK: End of game
6 Q4 0:47 Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Dion Jordan), 9 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 112 snaps before, position avg 1 per 249 +6% JAX JAX: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:34 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +25% JAX JAX: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Ronnie Harrison), 33 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 651 snaps before, position avg 1 per 441 +8% OAK OAK: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trent Brown (OAK T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Daryl Worley (OAK CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Karl Joseph (OAK SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Marcell Dareus (JAX DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Myles Jack (JAX LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Quincy Williams (JAX LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Najee Goode (JAX LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 91% · Raiders 9%

Final margin
Jaguars by 4
Luck in points
2.7 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 6.7
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 25% · Raiders 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2019 games · Jaguars · Raiders

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