Week 7 · October 22–26 · 4 weeks ahead
NFL predictions, week 7 An early look at week 7, from what each team’s play has been worth so far adjusted for luck and what it was worth last season. This far ahead nobody knows yet who will start or who will be hurt, so each team’s usual quarterback is assumed and no injury report is in; the curves are wider for it. On past seasons, forecasts made 4 weeks ahead picked 62.9% of winners, against 65.3% for forecasts made the week before. These update every day, and sharpen when the week comes up: this week’s predictions .
Weeks ahead 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±13.2, so about 83% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Bears by 4.6 · 64% to win
Ours: Bears by 4.6 Patriots win 36% Bears win 64% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Patriots win by Bears win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Patriots win 36.1% Bears win 63.9% Middle 50%: Patriots by 4 to Bears by 14 50% Middle 90%: Patriots by 17 to Bears by 27 90% Middle 95%: Patriots by 21 to Bears by 31 95% Exactly Bears by 3 8.3% Exactly Patriots by 3 7.1% Exactly Bears by 7 5.5% Exactly Bears by 14 4.4% Exactly Bears by 10 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Bears +4.5 Home field Bears +2.3 Last season Patriots +1.9 Quarterbacks Patriots +0.3
Saints by 0.1 · 50% to win
Ours: Saints by 0.1 Steelers win 50% Saints win 50% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Steelers win by Saints win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Steelers win 49.8% Saints win 50.2% Middle 50%: Steelers by 8 to Saints by 9 50% Middle 90%: Steelers by 21 to Saints by 21 90% Middle 95%: Steelers by 26 to Saints by 26 95% Exactly Saints by 3 8.2% Exactly Steelers by 3 8.2% Exactly Saints by 7 4.9% Exactly Steelers by 7 4.9% Exactly Saints by 10 3.4%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Steelers +0.6 Home field Saints +0.6 Quarterbacks Saints +0.1 This season, adjusted for luck Saints +0.1
Ravens by 5.1 · 65% to win
Ours: Ravens by 5.1 Bengals win 35% Ravens win 65% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Bengals win by Ravens win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Bengals win 34.8% Ravens win 65.2% Middle 50%: Bengals by 3 to Ravens by 14 50% Middle 90%: Bengals by 17 to Ravens by 27 90% Middle 95%: Bengals by 21 to Ravens by 31 95% Exactly Ravens by 3 8.3% Exactly Bengals by 3 7.0% Exactly Ravens by 7 5.6% Exactly Ravens by 14 4.5% Exactly Ravens by 10 4.2%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Ravens +2.3 Last season Ravens +1.9 Quarterbacks Ravens +0.5 This season, adjusted for luck Ravens +0.4
Browns by 0.4 · 51% to win
Ours: Browns by 0.4 Browns win 51% Titans win 49% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Browns win by Titans win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Browns win 51.2% Titans win 48.8% Middle 50%: Browns by 10 to Titans by 8 50% Middle 90%: Browns by 22 to Titans by 21 90% Middle 95%: Browns by 27 to Titans by 25 95% Exactly Browns by 3 8.2% Exactly Titans by 3 8.1% Exactly Browns by 7 5.0% Exactly Titans by 7 4.8% Exactly Browns by 10 3.5%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Titans +2.3 Last season Browns +1.2 This season, adjusted for luck Browns +1.0 Quarterbacks Browns +0.5
Vikings by 5.4 · 66% to win
Ours: Vikings by 5.4 Colts win 34% Vikings win 66% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Colts win by Vikings win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Colts win 34.0% Vikings win 66.0% Middle 50%: Colts by 3 to Vikings by 14 50% Middle 90%: Colts by 17 to Vikings by 27 90% Middle 95%: Colts by 21 to Vikings by 31 95% Exactly Vikings by 3 8.3% Exactly Colts by 3 6.9% Exactly Vikings by 7 5.6% Exactly Vikings by 14 4.5% Exactly Vikings by 10 4.2%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Vikings +4.1 Home field Vikings +2.3 Last season Colts +0.9 Quarterbacks Colts +0.2
Jets by 4.3 · 63% to win
Ours: Jets by 4.3 Dolphins win 37% Jets win 63% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Dolphins win by Jets win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Dolphins win 37.0% Jets win 63.0% Middle 50%: Dolphins by 4 to Jets by 14 50% Middle 90%: Dolphins by 17 to Jets by 26 90% Middle 95%: Dolphins by 21 to Jets by 30 95% Exactly Jets by 3 8.4% Exactly Dolphins by 3 7.2% Exactly Jets by 7 5.5% Exactly Jets by 14 4.3% Exactly Jets by 10 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Jets +3.7 Home field Jets +2.3 Last season Dolphins +1.4 Quarterbacks Dolphins +0.3
Texans by 4.5 · 64% to win
Ours: Texans by 4.5 Giants win 36% Texans win 64% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Giants win by Texans win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Giants win 36.5% Texans win 63.5% Middle 50%: Giants by 4 to Texans by 14 50% Middle 90%: Giants by 17 to Texans by 27 90% Middle 95%: Giants by 21 to Texans by 31 95% Exactly Texans by 3 8.3% Exactly Giants by 3 7.2% Exactly Texans by 7 5.5% Exactly Texans by 14 4.3% Exactly Texans by 10 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Texans +2.6 Home field Texans +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck Giants +0.4
49ers by 8.3 · 74% to win
Ours: 49ers by 8.3 49ers win 74% Falcons win 26% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← 49ers win by Falcons win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance 49ers win 73.6% Falcons win 26.4% Middle 50%: 49ers by 17 to Falcons by 2 50% Middle 90%: 49ers by 30 to Falcons by 14 90% Middle 95%: 49ers by 34 to Falcons by 18 95% Exactly 49ers by 3 7.8% Exactly Falcons by 3 5.9% Exactly 49ers by 7 5.6% Exactly 49ers by 14 5.1% Exactly 49ers by 10 4.5%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck 49ers +5.6 Quarterbacks 49ers +3.9 Home field Falcons +2.3 Last season 49ers +1.0
Panthers by 3.2 · 60% to win
Ours: Panthers by 3.2 Buccaneers win 40% Panthers win 60% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Buccaneers win by Panthers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Buccaneers win 40.4% Panthers win 59.6% Middle 50%: Buccaneers by 6 to Panthers by 13 50% Middle 90%: Buccaneers by 18 to Panthers by 25 90% Middle 95%: Buccaneers by 23 to Panthers by 29 95% Exactly Panthers by 3 8.4% Exactly Buccaneers by 3 7.5% Exactly Panthers by 7 5.4% Exactly Buccaneers by 7 4.2% Exactly Panthers by 14 4.0%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Panthers +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck Panthers +0.9 Quarterbacks Buccaneers +0.5 Last season Panthers +0.4
Broncos by 3.5 · 61% to win
Ours: Broncos by 3.5 Broncos win 61% Cardinals win 39% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Broncos win by Cardinals win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Broncos win 60.7% Cardinals win 39.3% Middle 50%: Broncos by 13 to Cardinals by 6 50% Middle 90%: Broncos by 25 to Cardinals by 18 90% Middle 95%: Broncos by 29 to Cardinals by 22 95% Exactly Broncos by 3 8.4% Exactly Cardinals by 3 7.4% Exactly Broncos by 7 5.4% Exactly Broncos by 14 4.1% Exactly Cardinals by 7 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Broncos +3.9 Home field Cardinals +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck Broncos +1.3 Quarterbacks Broncos +0.7
Lions by 6.2 · 68% to win
Ours: Lions by 6.2 Packers win 32% Lions win 68% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Packers win by Lions win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Packers win 31.7% Lions win 68.3% Middle 50%: Packers by 3 to Lions by 15 50% Middle 90%: Packers by 16 to Lions by 28 90% Middle 95%: Packers by 20 to Lions by 32 95% Exactly Lions by 3 8.2% Exactly Packers by 3 6.6% Exactly Lions by 7 5.6% Exactly Lions by 14 4.7% Exactly Lions by 10 4.3%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Lions +2.6 Home field Lions +2.3 Last season Lions +0.7 Quarterbacks Lions +0.6
Rams by 1.6 · 55% to win
Ours: Rams by 1.6 Rams win 55% Raiders win 45% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Rams win by Raiders win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Rams win 54.8% Raiders win 45.2% Middle 50%: Rams by 10 to Raiders by 7 50% Middle 90%: Rams by 24 to Raiders by 20 90% Middle 95%: Rams by 28 to Raiders by 24 95% Exactly Rams by 3 8.4% Exactly Raiders by 3 7.9% Exactly Rams by 7 5.2% Exactly Raiders by 7 4.6% Exactly Rams by 10 3.7%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Rams +5.2 This season, adjusted for luck Raiders +2.8 Home field Raiders +2.3 Quarterbacks Rams +1.5
Seahawks by 1.2 · 54% to win
Ours: Seahawks by 1.2 Chiefs win 46% Seahawks win 54% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Chiefs win by Seahawks win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Chiefs win 46.2% Seahawks win 53.8% Middle 50%: Chiefs by 7 to Seahawks by 10 50% Middle 90%: Chiefs by 21 to Seahawks by 23 90% Middle 95%: Chiefs by 24 to Seahawks by 27 95% Exactly Seahawks by 3 8.3% Exactly Chiefs by 3 8.0% Exactly Seahawks by 7 5.1% Exactly Chiefs by 7 4.6% Exactly Seahawks by 10 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Seahawks +2.3 Last season Seahawks +2.3 Quarterbacks Chiefs +1.8 This season, adjusted for luck Chiefs +1.5
Eagles by 1.0 · 53% to win
Ours: Eagles by 1.0 Cowboys win 47% Eagles win 53% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Cowboys win by Eagles win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Cowboys win 47.0% Eagles win 53.0% Middle 50%: Cowboys by 7 to Eagles by 10 50% Middle 90%: Cowboys by 21 to Eagles by 23 90% Middle 95%: Cowboys by 25 to Eagles by 27 95% Exactly Eagles by 3 8.3% Exactly Cowboys by 3 8.0% Exactly Eagles by 7 5.1% Exactly Cowboys by 7 4.7% Exactly Eagles by 10 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Eagles +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck Cowboys +2.1 Last season Eagles +1.6 Quarterbacks Cowboys +0.9
Patriots at 
Bears 
