Week 6 · October 15–19 · 3 weeks ahead
NFL predictions, week 6 An early look at week 6, from what each team’s play has been worth so far with the luck taken out and what it was worth last season. This far ahead nobody knows yet who will start or who will be hurt, so each team’s usual quarterback is assumed and no injury report is in; the curves are wider for it. On past seasons, forecasts made 3 weeks ahead picked 63.9% of winners, against 65.3% for forecasts made the week before. These update every day, and sharpen when the week comes up: this week’s predictions .
Weeks ahead 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±13.2, so about 84% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Broncos by 0.1 · 50% to win
Ours: Broncos by 0.1 Seahawks win 50% Broncos win 50% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Seahawks win by Broncos win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Seahawks win 49.8% Broncos win 50.2% Middle 50%: Seahawks by 8 to Broncos by 9 50% Middle 90%: Seahawks by 21 to Broncos by 21 90% Middle 95%: Seahawks by 26 to Broncos by 26 95% Exactly Broncos by 3 8.2% Exactly Seahawks by 3 8.2% Exactly Broncos by 7 4.9% Exactly Seahawks by 7 4.9% Exactly Broncos by 10 3.4%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Seahawks +2.6 Home field Broncos +2.3 Quarterbacks Broncos +1.1 Last season Seahawks +0.8
Jaguars by 5.4 · 66% to win
Ours: Jaguars by 5.4 Texans win 34% Jaguars win 66% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Texans win by Jaguars win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Texans win 34.0% Jaguars win 66.0% Middle 50%: Texans by 3 to Jaguars by 14 50% Middle 90%: Texans by 17 to Jaguars by 27 90% Middle 95%: Texans by 21 to Jaguars by 31 95% Exactly Jaguars by 3 8.3% Exactly Texans by 3 6.9% Exactly Jaguars by 7 5.6% Exactly Jaguars by 14 4.6% Exactly Jaguars by 10 4.2%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Jaguars +4.1 Quarterbacks Jaguars +0.6 Home field Jaguars +0.6 Last season Jaguars +0.1
Ravens by 5.0 · 65% to win
Ours: Ravens by 5.0 Ravens win 65% Browns win 35% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Ravens win by Browns win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Ravens win 65.0% Browns win 35.0% Middle 50%: Ravens by 14 to Browns by 4 50% Middle 90%: Ravens by 27 to Browns by 17 90% Middle 95%: Ravens by 31 to Browns by 21 95% Exactly Ravens by 3 8.3% Exactly Browns by 3 7.0% Exactly Ravens by 7 5.6% Exactly Ravens by 14 4.5% Exactly Ravens by 10 4.2%
Where the forecast comes from Quarterbacks Ravens +2.7 This season, luck taken out Ravens +2.4 Home field Browns +2.3 Last season Ravens +2.3
Eagles by 3.3 · 60% to win
Ours: Eagles by 3.3 Panthers win 40% Eagles win 60% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Panthers win by Eagles win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Panthers win 40.0% Eagles win 60.0% Middle 50%: Panthers by 6 to Eagles by 13 50% Middle 90%: Panthers by 18 to Eagles by 25 90% Middle 95%: Panthers by 23 to Eagles by 29 95% Exactly Eagles by 3 8.4% Exactly Panthers by 3 7.5% Exactly Eagles by 7 5.4% Exactly Panthers by 7 4.2% Exactly Eagles by 14 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Eagles +2.3 Last season Eagles +1.5 This season, luck taken out Panthers +1.3 Quarterbacks Eagles +0.8
Bears by 5.5 · 66% to win
Ours: Bears by 5.5 Bears win 66% Falcons win 34% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Bears win by Falcons win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Bears win 66.4% Falcons win 33.6% Middle 50%: Bears by 14 to Falcons by 3 50% Middle 90%: Bears by 27 to Falcons by 16 90% Middle 95%: Bears by 31 to Falcons by 21 95% Exactly Bears by 3 8.3% Exactly Falcons by 3 6.9% Exactly Bears by 7 5.6% Exactly Bears by 14 4.6% Exactly Bears by 10 4.3%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Bears +4.5 Quarterbacks Bears +2.6 Home field Falcons +2.3 Last season Bears +0.8
Giants by 2.0 · 56% to win
Ours: Giants by 2.0 Saints win 44% Giants win 56% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Saints win by Giants win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Saints win 44.0% Giants win 56.0% Middle 50%: Saints by 7 to Giants by 11 50% Middle 90%: Saints by 20 to Giants by 24 90% Middle 95%: Saints by 24 to Giants by 28 95% Exactly Giants by 3 8.4% Exactly Saints by 3 7.9% Exactly Giants by 7 5.3% Exactly Saints by 7 4.5% Exactly Giants by 10 3.8%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Giants +2.3 Last season Saints +0.5 Quarterbacks Giants +0.3 This season, luck taken out Saints +0.2
Patriots by 7.1 · 71% to win
Ours: Patriots by 7.1 Jets win 29% Patriots win 71% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Jets win by Patriots win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Jets win 29.2% Patriots win 70.8% Middle 50%: Jets by 3 to Patriots by 16 50% Middle 90%: Jets by 14 to Patriots by 28 90% Middle 95%: Jets by 19 to Patriots by 33 95% Exactly Patriots by 3 8.0% Exactly Jets by 3 6.3% Exactly Patriots by 7 5.7% Exactly Patriots by 14 4.9% Exactly Patriots by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Patriots +4.8 Home field Patriots +2.3 This season, luck taken out Jets +1.1 Quarterbacks Patriots +1.1
Buccaneers by 1.8 · 55% to win
Ours: Buccaneers by 1.8 Steelers win 45% Buccaneers win 55% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Steelers win by Buccaneers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Steelers win 44.5% Buccaneers win 55.5% Middle 50%: Steelers by 7 to Buccaneers by 10 50% Middle 90%: Steelers by 20 to Buccaneers by 24 90% Middle 95%: Steelers by 24 to Buccaneers by 28 95% Exactly Buccaneers by 3 8.4% Exactly Steelers by 3 7.9% Exactly Buccaneers by 7 5.2% Exactly Steelers by 7 4.5% Exactly Buccaneers by 10 3.7%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Buccaneers +2.3 Last season Steelers +0.9 Quarterbacks Buccaneers +0.6 This season, luck taken out Steelers +0.2
Colts by 6.5 · 69% to win
Ours: Colts by 6.5 Titans win 31% Colts win 69% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Titans win by Colts win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Titans win 30.7% Colts win 69.3% Middle 50%: Titans by 3 to Colts by 16 50% Middle 90%: Titans by 15 to Colts by 28 90% Middle 95%: Titans by 20 to Colts by 32 95% Exactly Colts by 3 8.1% Exactly Titans by 3 6.5% Exactly Colts by 7 5.7% Exactly Colts by 14 4.8% Exactly Colts by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Colts +3.2 Home field Colts +2.3 Quarterbacks Colts +1.8 This season, luck taken out Titans +0.8
Rams by 9.8 · 78% to win
Ours: Rams by 9.8 Cardinals win 22% Rams win 78% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Cardinals win by Rams win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Cardinals win 22.5% Rams win 77.5% Middle 50%: Rams by 2 to Rams by 18 50% Middle 90%: Cardinals by 12 to Rams by 31 90% Middle 95%: Cardinals by 16 to Rams by 35 95% Exactly Rams by 3 7.4% Exactly Rams by 7 5.5% Exactly Rams by 14 5.4% Exactly Cardinals by 3 5.3% Exactly Rams by 10 4.5%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Rams +4.7 Home field Rams +2.3 Quarterbacks Rams +1.9 This season, luck taken out Rams +0.9
Bills by 3.8 · 61% to win
Ours: Bills by 3.8 Bills win 61% Raiders win 39% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Bills win by Raiders win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Bills win 61.4% Raiders win 38.6% Middle 50%: Bills by 13 to Raiders by 5 50% Middle 90%: Bills by 25 to Raiders by 18 90% Middle 95%: Bills by 29 to Raiders by 22 95% Exactly Bills by 3 8.4% Exactly Raiders by 3 7.4% Exactly Bills by 7 5.5% Exactly Bills by 14 4.2% Exactly Raiders by 7 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Bills +4.4 Home field Raiders +2.3 Quarterbacks Bills +1.6 This season, luck taken out Bills +0.1
Chiefs by 11.1 · 80% to win
Ours: Chiefs by 11.1 Chargers win 20% Chiefs win 80% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Chargers win by Chiefs win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Chargers win 19.6% Chiefs win 80.4% Middle 50%: Chiefs by 3 to Chiefs by 20 50% Middle 90%: Chargers by 10 to Chiefs by 32 90% Middle 95%: Chargers by 14 to Chiefs by 37 95% Exactly Chiefs by 3 7.0% Exactly Chiefs by 14 5.5% Exactly Chiefs by 7 5.4% Exactly Chargers by 3 4.8% Exactly Chiefs by 10 4.5%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Chiefs +7.4 Home field Chiefs +2.3 Quarterbacks Chiefs +1.3 Last season Chiefs +0.1
Packers by 0.4 · 51% to win
Ours: Packers by 0.4 Cowboys win 49% Packers win 51% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Cowboys win by Packers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Cowboys win 48.8% Packers win 51.2% Middle 50%: Cowboys by 8 to Packers by 10 50% Middle 90%: Cowboys by 21 to Packers by 22 90% Middle 95%: Cowboys by 25 to Packers by 26 95% Exactly Packers by 3 8.3% Exactly Cowboys by 3 8.2% Exactly Packers by 7 5.0% Exactly Cowboys by 7 4.8% Exactly Packers by 10 3.5%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Cowboys +3.3 Home field Packers +2.3 Last season Packers +1.2 Quarterbacks Packers +0.1
49ers by 11.6 · 81% to win
Ours: 49ers by 11.6 Commanders win 19% 49ers win 81% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Commanders win by 49ers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Commanders win 18.6% 49ers win 81.4% Middle 50%: 49ers by 3 to 49ers by 21 50% Middle 90%: Commanders by 10 to 49ers by 33 90% Middle 95%: Commanders by 14 to 49ers by 37 95% Exactly 49ers by 3 6.8% Exactly 49ers by 14 5.6% Exactly 49ers by 7 5.3% Exactly Commanders by 3 4.6% Exactly 49ers by 10 4.5%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out 49ers +5.8 Home field 49ers +2.3 Last season 49ers +2.0 Quarterbacks 49ers +1.4
Seahawks at 
Broncos 
