Week 8 · October 29 – November 2 · 5 weeks ahead
NFL predictions, week 8 An early look at week 8, from what each team’s play has been worth so far adjusted for luck and what it was worth last season. This far ahead nobody knows yet who will start or who will be hurt, so each team’s usual quarterback is assumed and no injury report is in; the curves are wider for it. On past seasons, forecasts made 5 weeks ahead picked 62.0% of winners, against 65.3% for forecasts made the week before. These update every day, and sharpen when the week comes up: this week’s predictions .
Weeks ahead 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±13.3, so about 83% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Packers by 2.7 · 58% to win
Ours: Packers by 2.7 Panthers win 42% Packers win 58% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Panthers win by Packers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Panthers win 41.9% Packers win 58.1% Middle 50%: Panthers by 7 to Packers by 12 50% Middle 90%: Panthers by 19 to Packers by 24 90% Middle 95%: Panthers by 24 to Packers by 28 95% Exactly Packers by 3 8.4% Exactly Panthers by 3 7.6% Exactly Packers by 7 5.3% Exactly Panthers by 7 4.3% Exactly Packers by 14 3.9%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Panthers +2.5 Home field Packers +2.3 Quarterbacks Packers +1.8 Last season Packers +1.1
Cowboys by 7.4 · 71% to win
Ours: Cowboys by 7.4 Cardinals win 29% Cowboys win 71% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Cardinals win by Cowboys win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Cardinals win 28.5% Cowboys win 71.5% Middle 50%: Cardinals by 3 to Cowboys by 17 50% Middle 90%: Cardinals by 14 to Cowboys by 29 90% Middle 95%: Cardinals by 18 to Cowboys by 34 95% Exactly Cowboys by 3 7.9% Exactly Cardinals by 3 6.1% Exactly Cowboys by 7 5.6% Exactly Cowboys by 14 5.0% Exactly Cowboys by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Cowboys +2.4 Home field Cowboys +2.3 Quarterbacks Cowboys +1.6 Last season Cowboys +1.2
Buccaneers by 4.8 · 64% to win
Ours: Buccaneers by 4.8 Falcons win 36% Buccaneers win 64% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Falcons win by Buccaneers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Falcons win 35.7% Buccaneers win 64.3% Middle 50%: Falcons by 4 to Buccaneers by 14 50% Middle 90%: Falcons by 17 to Buccaneers by 27 90% Middle 95%: Falcons by 21 to Buccaneers by 31 95% Exactly Buccaneers by 3 8.3% Exactly Falcons by 3 7.0% Exactly Buccaneers by 7 5.5% Exactly Buccaneers by 14 4.4% Exactly Buccaneers by 10 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Quarterbacks Buccaneers +2.4 Home field Buccaneers +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck Buccaneers +0.5 Last season Falcons +0.4
Bills by 4.8 · 64% to win
Ours: Bills by 4.8 Ravens win 36% Bills win 64% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Ravens win by Bills win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Ravens win 35.8% Bills win 64.2% Middle 50%: Ravens by 4 to Bills by 14 50% Middle 90%: Ravens by 17 to Bills by 27 90% Middle 95%: Ravens by 21 to Bills by 31 95% Exactly Bills by 3 8.3% Exactly Ravens by 3 7.1% Exactly Bills by 7 5.5% Exactly Bills by 14 4.4% Exactly Bills by 10 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Bills +2.3 Last season Bills +1.4 This season, adjusted for luck Bills +0.7 Quarterbacks Bills +0.3
Steelers by 4.9 · 65% to win
Ours: Steelers by 4.9 Browns win 35% Steelers win 65% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Browns win by Steelers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Browns win 35.3% Steelers win 64.7% Middle 50%: Browns by 4 to Steelers by 14 50% Middle 90%: Browns by 17 to Steelers by 27 90% Middle 95%: Browns by 21 to Steelers by 31 95% Exactly Steelers by 3 8.3% Exactly Browns by 3 7.0% Exactly Steelers by 7 5.5% Exactly Steelers by 14 4.4% Exactly Steelers by 10 4.2%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Steelers +2.3 Last season Steelers +1.7 Quarterbacks Steelers +0.8 This season, adjusted for luck Steelers +0.1
Jaguars by 9.6 · 77% to win
Ours: Jaguars by 9.6 Colts win 23% Jaguars win 77% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Colts win by Jaguars win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Colts win 23.3% Jaguars win 76.7% Middle 50%: Jaguars by 2 to Jaguars by 18 50% Middle 90%: Colts by 13 to Jaguars by 31 90% Middle 95%: Colts by 17 to Jaguars by 35 95% Exactly Jaguars by 3 7.4% Exactly Jaguars by 7 5.5% Exactly Colts by 3 5.3% Exactly Jaguars by 14 5.3% Exactly Jaguars by 10 4.5%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Jaguars +5.5 Home field Jaguars +2.3 Last season Jaguars +1.2 Quarterbacks Jaguars +0.5
Raiders by 1.0 · 53% to win
Ours: Raiders by 1.0 Raiders win 53% Jets win 47% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Raiders win by Jets win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Raiders win 53.0% Jets win 47.0% Middle 50%: Raiders by 10 to Jets by 7 50% Middle 90%: Raiders by 23 to Jets by 21 90% Middle 95%: Raiders by 27 to Jets by 25 95% Exactly Raiders by 3 8.3% Exactly Jets by 3 8.0% Exactly Raiders by 7 5.1% Exactly Jets by 7 4.7% Exactly Raiders by 10 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Raiders +2.5 Home field Jets +2.3 Quarterbacks Raiders +0.5 Last season Raiders +0.3
Lions by 4.9 · 65% to win
Ours: Lions by 4.9 Vikings win 35% Lions win 65% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Vikings win by Lions win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Vikings win 35.3% Lions win 64.7% Middle 50%: Vikings by 4 to Lions by 14 50% Middle 90%: Vikings by 17 to Lions by 27 90% Middle 95%: Vikings by 21 to Lions by 31 95% Exactly Lions by 3 8.3% Exactly Vikings by 3 7.0% Exactly Lions by 7 5.5% Exactly Lions by 14 4.4% Exactly Lions by 10 4.2%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Lions +2.3 Quarterbacks Lions +2.2 Last season Lions +1.8 This season, adjusted for luck Vikings +1.4
Bengals by 9.6 · 77% to win
Ours: Bengals by 9.6 Titans win 23% Bengals win 77% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Titans win by Bengals win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Titans win 23.2% Bengals win 76.8% Middle 50%: Bengals by 2 to Bengals by 18 50% Middle 90%: Titans by 13 to Bengals by 31 90% Middle 95%: Titans by 17 to Bengals by 35 95% Exactly Bengals by 3 7.4% Exactly Bengals by 7 5.5% Exactly Titans by 3 5.3% Exactly Bengals by 14 5.3% Exactly Bengals by 10 4.5%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Bengals +2.9 Quarterbacks Bengals +2.7 Home field Bengals +2.3 Last season Bengals +1.6
Rams by 9.4 · 76% to win
Ours: Rams by 9.4 Chargers win 24% Rams win 76% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Chargers win by Rams win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Chargers win 23.8% Rams win 76.2% Middle 50%: Rams by 1 to Rams by 18 50% Middle 90%: Chargers by 13 to Rams by 31 90% Middle 95%: Chargers by 17 to Rams by 35 95% Exactly Rams by 3 7.5% Exactly Rams by 7 5.5% Exactly Chargers by 3 5.4% Exactly Rams by 14 5.3% Exactly Rams by 10 4.5%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Rams +3.0 Last season Rams +2.4 Home field Rams +2.3 Quarterbacks Rams +1.7
Chiefs by 1.0 · 53% to win
Ours: Chiefs by 1.0 Chiefs win 53% Broncos win 47% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Chiefs win by Broncos win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Chiefs win 53.2% Broncos win 46.8% Middle 50%: Chiefs by 10 to Broncos by 7 50% Middle 90%: Chiefs by 23 to Broncos by 21 90% Middle 95%: Chiefs by 27 to Broncos by 25 95% Exactly Chiefs by 3 8.3% Exactly Broncos by 3 8.0% Exactly Chiefs by 7 5.1% Exactly Broncos by 7 4.7% Exactly Chiefs by 10 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Chiefs +4.1 Home field Broncos +2.3 Last season Broncos +1.5 Quarterbacks Chiefs +0.7
Patriots by 4.5 · 63% to win
Ours: Patriots by 4.5 Patriots win 63% Dolphins win 37% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Patriots win by Dolphins win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Patriots win 63.3% Dolphins win 36.7% Middle 50%: Patriots by 14 to Dolphins by 4 50% Middle 90%: Patriots by 27 to Dolphins by 17 90% Middle 95%: Patriots by 31 to Dolphins by 21 95% Exactly Patriots by 3 8.3% Exactly Dolphins by 3 7.1% Exactly Patriots by 7 5.5% Exactly Patriots by 14 4.3% Exactly Patriots by 10 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Patriots +3.5 This season, adjusted for luck Patriots +2.5 Home field Dolphins +2.3 Quarterbacks Patriots +0.8
Eagles by 0.6 · 52% to win
Ours: Eagles by 0.6 Eagles win 52% Commanders win 48% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Eagles win by Commanders win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Eagles win 51.8% Commanders win 48.1% Middle 50%: Eagles by 10 to Commanders by 8 50% Middle 90%: Eagles by 22 to Commanders by 21 90% Middle 95%: Eagles by 27 to Commanders by 25 95% Exactly Eagles by 3 8.2% Exactly Commanders by 3 8.1% Exactly Eagles by 7 5.0% Exactly Commanders by 7 4.8% Exactly Eagles by 10 3.5%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Eagles +2.5 Home field Commanders +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck Eagles +0.4 Quarterbacks Eagles +0.1
Seahawks by 3.2 · 60% to win
Ours: Seahawks by 3.2 Bears win 40% Seahawks win 60% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Bears win by Seahawks win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Bears win 40.5% Seahawks win 59.5% Middle 50%: Bears by 6 to Seahawks by 13 50% Middle 90%: Bears by 19 to Seahawks by 25 90% Middle 95%: Bears by 23 to Seahawks by 29 95% Exactly Seahawks by 3 8.4% Exactly Bears by 3 7.5% Exactly Seahawks by 7 5.4% Exactly Bears by 7 4.2% Exactly Seahawks by 14 4.0%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Seahawks +2.5 Home field Seahawks +2.3 Quarterbacks Bears +1.0 This season, adjusted for luck Bears +0.7
Panthers at 
Packers 
