Week 9 · November 5–9 · 6 weeks ahead
NFL predictions, week 9 An early look at week 9, from what each team’s play has been worth so far with the luck taken out and what it was worth last season. This far ahead nobody knows yet who will start or who will be hurt, so each team’s usual quarterback is assumed and no injury report is in; the curves are wider for it. On past seasons, forecasts made 6 weeks ahead picked 61.5% of winners, against 65.3% for forecasts made the week before. These update every day, and sharpen when the week comes up: this week’s predictions .
Weeks ahead 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±13.3, so about 82% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ravens by 0.9 · 53% to win
Ours: Ravens by 0.9 Jaguars win 47% Ravens win 53% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Jaguars win by Ravens win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Jaguars win 47.2% Ravens win 52.8% Middle 50%: Jaguars by 8 to Ravens by 10 50% Middle 90%: Jaguars by 21 to Ravens by 23 90% Middle 95%: Jaguars by 25 to Ravens by 27 95% Exactly Ravens by 3 8.2% Exactly Jaguars by 3 8.0% Exactly Ravens by 7 5.0% Exactly Jaguars by 7 4.7% Exactly Ravens by 10 3.5%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Ravens +2.3 This season, luck taken out Jaguars +1.3 Last season Jaguars +1.0 Quarterbacks Ravens +0.9
Bengals by 4.4 · 63% to win
Ours: Bengals by 4.4 Bengals win 63% Falcons win 37% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Bengals win by Falcons win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Bengals win 63.2% Falcons win 36.8% Middle 50%: Bengals by 14 to Falcons by 4 50% Middle 90%: Bengals by 27 to Falcons by 17 90% Middle 95%: Bengals by 31 to Falcons by 21 95% Exactly Bengals by 3 8.3% Exactly Falcons by 3 7.1% Exactly Bengals by 7 5.5% Exactly Bengals by 14 4.3% Exactly Bengals by 10 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Quarterbacks Bengals +3.2 This season, luck taken out Bengals +2.6 Last season Falcons +0.8 Home field Falcons +0.6
Saints by 4.4 · 63% to win
Ours: Saints by 4.4 Browns win 37% Saints win 63% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Browns win by Saints win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Browns win 36.8% Saints win 63.2% Middle 50%: Browns by 4 to Saints by 14 50% Middle 90%: Browns by 17 to Saints by 27 90% Middle 95%: Browns by 21 to Saints by 31 95% Exactly Saints by 3 8.3% Exactly Browns by 3 7.1% Exactly Saints by 7 5.5% Exactly Saints by 14 4.3% Exactly Saints by 10 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Saints +2.3 Last season Saints +1.1 Quarterbacks Saints +0.9 This season, luck taken out Saints +0.2
Cowboys by 1.4 · 54% to win
Ours: Cowboys by 1.4 Cowboys win 54% Colts win 46% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Cowboys win by Colts win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Cowboys win 54.1% Colts win 45.9% Middle 50%: Cowboys by 10 to Colts by 7 50% Middle 90%: Cowboys by 24 to Colts by 21 90% Middle 95%: Cowboys by 28 to Colts by 25 95% Exactly Cowboys by 3 8.3% Exactly Colts by 3 7.9% Exactly Cowboys by 7 5.1% Exactly Colts by 7 4.6% Exactly Cowboys by 10 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Cowboys +3.4 Home field Colts +2.3 Quarterbacks Cowboys +1.3 Last season Colts +1.0
Broncos by 0.7 · 52% to win
Ours: Broncos by 0.7 Broncos win 52% Panthers win 48% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Broncos win by Panthers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Broncos win 52.2% Panthers win 47.8% Middle 50%: Broncos by 10 to Panthers by 8 50% Middle 90%: Broncos by 23 to Panthers by 21 90% Middle 95%: Broncos by 27 to Panthers by 25 95% Exactly Broncos by 3 8.2% Exactly Panthers by 3 8.0% Exactly Broncos by 7 5.0% Exactly Panthers by 7 4.7% Exactly Broncos by 10 3.5%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Broncos +2.5 Home field Panthers +2.3 Quarterbacks Broncos +0.8 This season, luck taken out Panthers +0.3
Lions by 6.5 · 69% to win
Ours: Lions by 6.5 Lions win 69% Dolphins win 31% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Lions win by Dolphins win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Lions win 68.9% Dolphins win 31.1% Middle 50%: Lions by 16 to Dolphins by 3 50% Middle 90%: Lions by 28 to Dolphins by 16 90% Middle 95%: Lions by 32 to Dolphins by 20 95% Exactly Lions by 3 8.1% Exactly Dolphins by 3 6.5% Exactly Lions by 7 5.6% Exactly Lions by 14 4.8% Exactly Lions by 10 4.3%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Lions +4.1 Last season Lions +2.5 Home field Dolphins +2.3 Quarterbacks Lions +2.2
Rams by 4.3 · 63% to win
Ours: Rams by 4.3 Rams win 63% Commanders win 37% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Rams win by Commanders win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Rams win 62.9% Commanders win 37.0% Middle 50%: Rams by 14 to Commanders by 5 50% Middle 90%: Rams by 27 to Commanders by 18 90% Middle 95%: Rams by 31 to Commanders by 21 95% Exactly Rams by 3 8.3% Exactly Commanders by 3 7.2% Exactly Rams by 7 5.5% Exactly Rams by 14 4.3% Exactly Rams by 10 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Rams +4.4 Home field Commanders +2.3 Quarterbacks Rams +1.3 This season, luck taken out Rams +1.0
Eagles by 4.4 · 63% to win
Ours: Eagles by 4.4 Giants win 37% Eagles win 63% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Giants win by Eagles win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Giants win 36.9% Eagles win 63.1% Middle 50%: Giants by 4 to Eagles by 14 50% Middle 90%: Giants by 17 to Eagles by 27 90% Middle 95%: Giants by 21 to Eagles by 31 95% Exactly Eagles by 3 8.3% Exactly Giants by 3 7.1% Exactly Eagles by 7 5.5% Exactly Eagles by 14 4.3% Exactly Eagles by 10 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Eagles +2.3 Last season Eagles +2.0 Quarterbacks Eagles +0.5 This season, luck taken out Giants +0.5
Chiefs by 11.3 · 81% to win
Ours: Chiefs by 11.3 Jets win 19% Chiefs win 81% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Jets win by Chiefs win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Jets win 19.5% Chiefs win 80.5% Middle 50%: Chiefs by 3 to Chiefs by 20 50% Middle 90%: Jets by 10 to Chiefs by 33 90% Middle 95%: Jets by 14 to Chiefs by 37 95% Exactly Chiefs by 3 6.9% Exactly Chiefs by 14 5.5% Exactly Chiefs by 7 5.3% Exactly Jets by 3 4.7% Exactly Chiefs by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Chiefs +4.1 Last season Chiefs +3.2 Home field Chiefs +2.3 Quarterbacks Chiefs +1.7
Texans by 1.0 · 53% to win
Ours: Texans by 1.0 Texans win 53% Chargers win 47% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Texans win by Chargers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Texans win 53.2% Chargers win 46.8% Middle 50%: Texans by 10 to Chargers by 7 50% Middle 90%: Texans by 23 to Chargers by 21 90% Middle 95%: Texans by 27 to Chargers by 25 95% Exactly Texans by 3 8.3% Exactly Chargers by 3 8.0% Exactly Texans by 7 5.1% Exactly Chargers by 7 4.7% Exactly Texans by 10 3.6%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Texans +2.4 Home field Chargers +2.3 Last season Texans +1.0
49ers by 8.8 · 75% to win
Ours: 49ers by 8.8 Raiders win 25% 49ers win 75% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Raiders win by 49ers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Raiders win 25.1% 49ers win 74.9% Middle 50%: Raiders by 1 to 49ers by 18 50% Middle 90%: Raiders by 14 to 49ers by 31 90% Middle 95%: Raiders by 17 to 49ers by 35 95% Exactly 49ers by 3 7.6% Exactly Raiders by 3 5.6% Exactly 49ers by 7 5.5% Exactly 49ers by 14 5.2% Exactly 49ers by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from Last season 49ers +2.9 Home field 49ers +2.3 This season, luck taken out 49ers +2.0 Quarterbacks 49ers +1.6
Seahawks by 10.5 · 79% to win
Ours: Seahawks by 10.5 Cardinals win 21% Seahawks win 79% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Cardinals win by Seahawks win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Cardinals win 21.3% Seahawks win 78.7% Middle 50%: Seahawks by 3 to Seahawks by 20 50% Middle 90%: Cardinals by 11 to Seahawks by 32 90% Middle 95%: Cardinals by 16 to Seahawks by 37 95% Exactly Seahawks by 3 7.1% Exactly Seahawks by 7 5.4% Exactly Seahawks by 14 5.4% Exactly Cardinals by 3 5.0% Exactly Seahawks by 10 4.5%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Seahawks +4.7 This season, luck taken out Seahawks +3.9 Home field Seahawks +2.3 Quarterbacks Cardinals +0.3
Patriots by 4.2 · 63% to win
Ours: Patriots by 4.2 Packers win 37% Patriots win 63% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Packers win by Patriots win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Packers win 37.5% Patriots win 62.5% Middle 50%: Packers by 5 to Patriots by 14 50% Middle 90%: Packers by 18 to Patriots by 26 90% Middle 95%: Packers by 22 to Patriots by 31 95% Exactly Patriots by 3 8.3% Exactly Packers by 3 7.2% Exactly Patriots by 7 5.5% Exactly Patriots by 14 4.3% Exactly Patriots by 10 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Patriots +2.3 Last season Patriots +1.7 This season, luck taken out Patriots +1.0 Quarterbacks Packers +0.8
Bears by 7.7 · 72% to win
Ours: Bears by 7.7 Buccaneers win 28% Bears win 72% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Buccaneers win by Bears win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Buccaneers win 27.9% Bears win 72.0% Middle 50%: Buccaneers by 3 to Bears by 17 50% Middle 90%: Buccaneers by 14 to Bears by 29 90% Middle 95%: Buccaneers by 18 to Bears by 34 95% Exactly Bears by 3 7.8% Exactly Buccaneers by 3 6.0% Exactly Bears by 7 5.6% Exactly Bears by 14 5.0% Exactly Bears by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from This season, luck taken out Bears +3.9 Home field Bears +2.3 Last season Bears +1.2 Quarterbacks Bears +0.2
Bills by 2.9 · 59% to win
Ours: Bills by 2.9 Bills win 59% Vikings win 41% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Bills win by Vikings win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Bills win 58.7% Vikings win 41.3% Middle 50%: Bills by 12 to Vikings by 6 50% Middle 90%: Bills by 25 to Vikings by 19 90% Middle 95%: Bills by 28 to Vikings by 24 95% Exactly Bills by 3 8.3% Exactly Vikings by 3 7.6% Exactly Bills by 7 5.3% Exactly Vikings by 7 4.3% Exactly Bills by 14 3.9%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Bills +2.5 Home field Vikings +2.3 Quarterbacks Bills +1.9 This season, luck taken out Bills +0.8
Jaguars at 
Ravens 
