Week 5 · October 8–12 · 2 weeks ahead
NFL predictions, week 5 An early look at week 5, from what each team’s play has been worth so far adjusted for luck and what it was worth last season. This far ahead nobody knows yet who will start or who will be hurt, so each team’s usual quarterback is assumed and no injury report is in; the curves are wider for it. On past seasons, forecasts made 2 weeks ahead picked 64.2% of winners, against 65.3% for forecasts made the week before. These update every day, and sharpen when the week comes up: this week’s predictions .
Weeks ahead 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±13.1, so about 85% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Cowboys by 5.5 · 66% to win · line Cowboys −9.5
Ours: Cowboys by 5.5 Line: Cowboys by 9.5 Buccaneers win 34% Cowboys win 66% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Buccaneers win by Cowboys win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Buccaneers win 33.6% Cowboys win 66.4% Middle 50%: Buccaneers by 3 to Cowboys by 14 50% Middle 90%: Buccaneers by 16 to Cowboys by 27 90% Middle 95%: Buccaneers by 20 to Cowboys by 31 95% Exactly Cowboys by 3 8.3% Exactly Buccaneers by 3 6.9% Exactly Cowboys by 7 5.7% Exactly Cowboys by 14 4.6% Exactly Cowboys by 10 4.3%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Cowboys +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck Cowboys +1.7 Quarterbacks Cowboys +1.2 Last season Cowboys +0.2
Jaguars by 7.2 · 71% to win · line Jaguars −3.0
Ours: Jaguars by 7.2 Line: Jaguars by 3.0 Eagles win 29% Jaguars win 71% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Eagles win by Jaguars win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Eagles win 28.8% Jaguars win 71.2% Middle 50%: Eagles by 3 to Jaguars by 16 50% Middle 90%: Eagles by 14 to Jaguars by 28 90% Middle 95%: Eagles by 18 to Jaguars by 33 95% Exactly Jaguars by 3 8.1% Exactly Eagles by 3 6.3% Exactly Jaguars by 7 5.7% Exactly Jaguars by 14 5.0% Exactly Jaguars by 10 4.4%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Jaguars +4.2 Home field Jaguars +2.3 Last season Jaguars +0.6 Quarterbacks Jaguars +0.1
Bears by 1.8 · 56% to win · line Packers −2.5
Ours: Bears by 1.8 Line: Packers by 2.5 Bears win 56% Packers win 44% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Bears win by Packers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Bears win 55.6% Packers win 44.4% Middle 50%: Bears by 10 to Packers by 7 50% Middle 90%: Bears by 24 to Packers by 20 90% Middle 95%: Bears by 28 to Packers by 24 95% Exactly Bears by 3 8.5% Exactly Packers by 3 7.9% Exactly Bears by 7 5.3% Exactly Packers by 7 4.5% Exactly Bears by 10 3.7%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Bears +5.5 Home field Packers +2.3 Quarterbacks Packers +1.1 Last season Packers +0.2
Bengals by 3.9 · 62% to win · line Bengals −8.5
Ours: Bengals by 3.9 Line: Bengals by 8.5 Bengals win 62% Dolphins win 38% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Bengals win by Dolphins win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Bengals win 61.9% Dolphins win 38.1% Middle 50%: Bengals by 13 to Dolphins by 5 50% Middle 90%: Bengals by 25 to Dolphins by 18 90% Middle 95%: Bengals by 29 to Dolphins by 21 95% Exactly Bengals by 3 8.5% Exactly Dolphins by 3 7.4% Exactly Bengals by 7 5.5% Exactly Bengals by 14 4.2% Exactly Bengals by 10 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Bengals +5.1 Home field Dolphins +2.3 Quarterbacks Bengals +1.1
Jets by 2.7 · 58% to win · line Jets −1.5
Ours: Jets by 2.7 Line: Jets by 1.5 Browns win 42% Jets win 58% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Browns win by Jets win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Browns win 41.8% Jets win 58.2% Middle 50%: Browns by 7 to Jets by 12 50% Middle 90%: Browns by 19 to Jets by 24 90% Middle 95%: Browns by 23 to Jets by 28 95% Exactly Jets by 3 8.5% Exactly Browns by 3 7.7% Exactly Jets by 7 5.4% Exactly Browns by 7 4.3% Exactly Jets by 14 3.9%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Jets +2.3 Last season Browns +0.9 Quarterbacks Jets +0.8 This season, adjusted for luck Jets +0.5
Texans by 4.3 · 63% to win · line Texans −6.5
Ours: Texans by 4.3 Line: Texans by 6.5 Texans win 63% Titans win 37% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Texans win by Titans win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Texans win 63.1% Titans win 36.9% Middle 50%: Texans by 14 to Titans by 4 50% Middle 90%: Texans by 26 to Titans by 17 90% Middle 95%: Texans by 30 to Titans by 21 95% Exactly Texans by 3 8.4% Exactly Titans by 3 7.3% Exactly Texans by 7 5.6% Exactly Texans by 14 4.3% Exactly Texans by 10 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Texans +4.4 Home field Titans +2.3 Quarterbacks Texans +1.7 This season, adjusted for luck Texans +0.6
Steelers by 3.4 · 60% to win · line Steelers −1.5
Ours: Steelers by 3.4 Line: Steelers by 1.5 Colts win 40% Steelers win 60% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Colts win by Steelers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Colts win 39.5% Steelers win 60.5% Middle 50%: Colts by 6 to Steelers by 13 50% Middle 90%: Colts by 18 to Steelers by 25 90% Middle 95%: Colts by 22 to Steelers by 29 95% Exactly Steelers by 3 8.5% Exactly Colts by 3 7.5% Exactly Steelers by 7 5.5% Exactly Colts by 7 4.1% Exactly Steelers by 14 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Steelers +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck Steelers +1.9 Quarterbacks Colts +0.5 Last season Colts +0.3
Patriots by 3.8 · 62% to win · line Patriots −3.5
Ours: Patriots by 3.8 Line: Patriots by 3.5 Raiders win 38% Patriots win 62% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Raiders win by Patriots win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Raiders win 38.5% Patriots win 61.5% Middle 50%: Raiders by 5 to Patriots by 13 50% Middle 90%: Raiders by 18 to Patriots by 25 90% Middle 95%: Raiders by 22 to Patriots by 29 95% Exactly Patriots by 3 8.5% Exactly Raiders by 3 7.4% Exactly Patriots by 7 5.5% Exactly Patriots by 14 4.2% Exactly Raiders by 7 4.1%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Patriots +4.5 This season, adjusted for luck Raiders +3.6 Home field Patriots +2.3 Quarterbacks Patriots +0.5
Vikings by 0.1 · 50% to win · line Vikings −2.5
Ours: Vikings by 0.1 Line: Vikings by 2.5 Vikings win 50% Saints win 50% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Vikings win by Saints win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Vikings win 50.3% Saints win 49.7% Middle 50%: Vikings by 9 to Saints by 8 50% Middle 90%: Vikings by 21 to Saints by 21 90% Middle 95%: Vikings by 26 to Saints by 25 95% Exactly Vikings by 3 8.3% Exactly Saints by 3 8.3% Exactly Vikings by 7 5.0% Exactly Saints by 7 4.9% Exactly Vikings by 10 3.4%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Saints +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck Vikings +2.1 Quarterbacks Vikings +0.2 Last season Vikings +0.1
Commanders by 1.5 · 55% to win · line Commanders −2.5
Ours: Commanders by 1.5 Line: Commanders by 2.5 Giants win 45% Commanders win 55% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Giants win by Commanders win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Giants win 45.5% Commanders win 54.5% Middle 50%: Giants by 7 to Commanders by 10 50% Middle 90%: Giants by 20 to Commanders by 23 90% Middle 95%: Giants by 24 to Commanders by 27 95% Exactly Commanders by 3 8.4% Exactly Giants by 3 8.0% Exactly Commanders by 7 5.2% Exactly Giants by 7 4.6% Exactly Commanders by 10 3.7%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Commanders +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck Giants +0.8 Last season Giants +0.4 Quarterbacks Commanders +0.4
Broncos by 3.1 · 59% to win · line Broncos −2.5
Ours: Broncos by 3.1 Line: Broncos by 2.5 Broncos win 59% Chargers win 41% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Broncos win by Chargers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Broncos win 59.4% Chargers win 40.6% Middle 50%: Broncos by 12 to Chargers by 6 50% Middle 90%: Broncos by 24 to Chargers by 18 90% Middle 95%: Broncos by 28 to Chargers by 23 95% Exactly Broncos by 3 8.5% Exactly Chargers by 3 7.6% Exactly Broncos by 7 5.4% Exactly Chargers by 7 4.2% Exactly Broncos by 14 4.0%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Broncos +3.3 Home field Chargers +2.3 Last season Broncos +1.5 Quarterbacks Broncos +0.6
Lions by 4.7 · 64% to win · line Lions −5.5
Ours: Lions by 4.7 Line: Lions by 5.5 Lions win 64% Cardinals win 36% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Lions win by Cardinals win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Lions win 64.3% Cardinals win 35.7% Middle 50%: Lions by 14 to Cardinals by 4 50% Middle 90%: Lions by 27 to Cardinals by 17 90% Middle 95%: Lions by 31 to Cardinals by 21 95% Exactly Lions by 3 8.4% Exactly Cardinals by 3 7.1% Exactly Lions by 7 5.6% Exactly Lions by 14 4.4% Exactly Lions by 10 4.2%
Where the forecast comes from Last season Lions +3.1 Home field Cardinals +2.3 Quarterbacks Lions +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck Lions +1.7
Seahawks by 0.4 · 51% to win · line Seahawks −3.0
Ours: Seahawks by 0.4 Line: Seahawks by 3.0 49ers win 49% Seahawks win 51% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← 49ers win by Seahawks win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance 49ers win 48.7% Seahawks win 51.3% Middle 50%: 49ers by 8 to Seahawks by 9 50% Middle 90%: 49ers by 21 to Seahawks by 22 90% Middle 95%: 49ers by 25 to Seahawks by 26 95% Exactly Seahawks by 3 8.3% Exactly 49ers by 3 8.2% Exactly Seahawks by 7 5.0% Exactly 49ers by 7 4.9% Exactly Seahawks by 10 3.5%
Where the forecast comes from Home field Seahawks +2.3 Quarterbacks 49ers +2.3 Last season Seahawks +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck 49ers +1.9
Ravens by 5.4 · 66% to win · line Ravens −6.0
Ours: Ravens by 5.4 Line: Ravens by 6.0 Ravens win 66% Falcons win 34% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Ravens win by Falcons win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Ravens win 66.3% Falcons win 33.8% Middle 50%: Ravens by 14 to Falcons by 3 50% Middle 90%: Ravens by 27 to Falcons by 16 90% Middle 95%: Ravens by 31 to Falcons by 20 95% Exactly Ravens by 3 8.3% Exactly Falcons by 3 6.9% Exactly Ravens by 7 5.7% Exactly Ravens by 14 4.6% Exactly Ravens by 10 4.3%
Where the forecast comes from Quarterbacks Ravens +3.7 This season, adjusted for luck Ravens +3.0 Home field Falcons +2.3 Last season Ravens +1.1
Rams by 0.1 · 50% to win · line Rams −2.5
Ours: Rams by 0.1 Line: Rams by 2.5 Bills win 50% Rams win 50% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Bills win by Rams win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Bills win 49.5% Rams win 50.5% Middle 50%: Bills by 8 to Rams by 9 50% Middle 90%: Bills by 21 to Rams by 21 90% Middle 95%: Bills by 25 to Rams by 26 95% Exactly Rams by 3 8.3% Exactly Bills by 3 8.2% Exactly Rams by 7 5.0% Exactly Bills by 7 4.9% Exactly Rams by 10 3.4%
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Bills +2.9 Home field Rams +2.3 Last season Rams +0.8 Quarterbacks Bills +0.1
Buccaneers at 
Cowboys 
