2024 NFL season · final
Dropped passes, 2024: every team’s drops and drop luck
The Bengals dropped the most passes in 2024: 31 of 521 catchable balls (6.0%), 5.8 more than their receivers usually drop. The Lions dropped the fewest, 7. The most by one player: M. Nabers (Giants), 10.
FTN’s charting marks every catchable ball and every drop. Each drop is measured against the receiver’s own record, so a sure-handed receiver’s drop counts as bad luck and a shaky one’s as less so. Drops above expected don’t carry over from one season to the next (−0.09). Luck in wins weighs each drop by the moment, own receivers’ and opponents’. Regular season only. Methodology
Drops by team, 2024
| # | Team | Drops | Catchable balls | Drop rate | Above expected | Drop luck in wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bengals | 31 | 521 | 6.0% | +5.8 | +0.07 |
| 2 |  Giants | 28 | 410 | 6.8% | +7.0 | −0.36 |
| 3 |  Jets | 28 | 434 | 6.5% | +6.6 | −0.50 |
| 4 |  Colts | 23 | 329 | 7.0% | +7.2 | −0.81 |
| 5 |  Browns | 23 | 437 | 5.3% | +1.1 | +0.14 |
| 6 |  Buccaneers | 21 | 412 | 5.1% | 0.0 | −0.48 |
| 7 |  Steelers | 20 | 349 | 5.7% | +3.4 | −1.10 |
| 8 |  49ers | 20 | 377 | 5.3% | +2.9 | −0.14 |
| 9 |  Texans | 20 | 393 | 5.1% | +1.8 | +0.57 |
| 10 |  Packers | 19 | 346 | 5.5% | +1.7 | −0.57 |
| 11 |  Chiefs | 19 | 439 | 4.3% | −2.6 | −0.10 |
| 12 |  Dolphins | 19 | 444 | 4.3% | −2.3 | +0.24 |
| 13 |  Bears | 18 | 383 | 4.7% | +1.4 | −0.10 |
| 14 |  Saints | 18 | 385 | 4.7% | −0.6 | −0.17 |
| 15 |  Panthers | 17 | 372 | 4.6% | −0.7 | −0.55 |
| 16 |  Chargers | 17 | 375 | 4.5% | −0.9 | −0.23 |
| 17 |  Jaguars | 17 | 384 | 4.4% | −2.4 | −0.10 |
| 18 |  Titans | 16 | 363 | 4.4% | −2.5 | +0.34 |
| 19 |  Vikings | 16 | 394 | 4.1% | −1.9 | −0.04 |
| 20 |  Commanders | 16 | 399 | 4.0% | −2.3 | 0.00 |
| 21 |  Broncos | 16 | 407 | 3.9% | −3.8 | +0.18 |
| 22 |  Cowboys | 16 | 434 | 3.7% | −4.4 | +0.45 |
| 23 |  Seahawks | 16 | 451 | 3.5% | −5.3 | +0.01 |
| 24 |  Rams | 14 | 393 | 3.6% | −5.4 | +0.35 |
| 25 |  Falcons | 13 | 402 | 3.2% | −5.5 | +0.69 |
| 26 |  Cardinals | 13 | 410 | 3.2% | −5.7 | −0.13 |
| 27 |  Patriots | 12 | 365 | 3.3% | −6.1 | +0.60 |
| 28 |  Raiders | 12 | 436 | 2.8% | −9.0 | −0.04 |
| 29 |  Eagles | 10 | 324 | 3.1% | −5.0 | +0.42 |
| 30 |  Ravens | 10 | 328 | 3.0% | −6.7 | +0.22 |
| 31 |  Bills | 10 | 356 | 2.8% | −7.3 | +0.52 |
| 32 |  Lions | 7 | 420 | 1.7% | −13.4 | +0.64 |
Drops and catchable balls: FTN Data via nflverse (interceptions excluded). Above expected: drops minus the sum of each receiver’s expected drop rate. League rate 2024: 4.4%.
Most drops by a player, 2024
Questions
Which NFL team dropped the most passes in 2024?
The Bengals: 31 drops on 521 catchable balls, 6.0%. The league rate is 4.4%.
Are drops luck?
Mostly. Some receivers drop more than others, so each drop is measured against that receiver’s own rate. What’s left doesn’t carry over: a team’s drops above expected correlate from one season to the next at −0.09 (96 team-seasons). A drop on third down costs the most, since it costs the first down.
Who gained the most from drops in 2024?
The Falcons, +0.69 wins, counting their own receivers’ drops and their opponents’, each weighted by the moment it came.
Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2023 · 2022
2024 luck rankings · Turnover luck · Kicking luck · Every kind of luck