2025 NFL season · final
Dropped passes, 2025: every team’s drops and drop luck
The Jaguars dropped the most passes in 2025: 38 of 399 catchable balls (9.5%), 17.6 more than their receivers usually drop. The Seahawks dropped the fewest, 12. The most by one player: B. Thomas (Jaguars), 10.
FTN’s charting marks every catchable ball and every drop. Each drop is measured against the receiver’s own record, so a sure-handed receiver’s drop counts as bad luck and a shaky one’s as less so. Drops above expected don’t carry over from one season to the next (−0.09). Luck in wins weighs each drop by the moment, own receivers’ and opponents’. Regular season only. Methodology
Drops by team, 2025
| # | Team | Drops | Catchable balls | Drop rate | Above expected | Drop luck in wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Jaguars | 38 | 399 | 9.5% | +17.6 | −0.88 |
| 2 |  Bears | 31 | 380 | 8.2% | +12.9 | −0.38 |
| 3 |  Jets | 28 | 343 | 8.2% | +10.5 | +0.78 |
| 4 |  Broncos | 26 | 435 | 6.0% | +4.8 | +0.20 |
| 5 |  Cowboys | 26 | 463 | 5.6% | +3.1 | −0.51 |
| 6 |  Titans | 25 | 375 | 6.7% | +5.6 | −0.68 |
| 7 |  Bills | 24 | 385 | 6.2% | +5.7 | −0.21 |
| 8 |  Vikings | 23 | 341 | 6.7% | +7.6 | +0.06 |
| 9 |  Rams | 23 | 434 | 5.3% | +1.6 | −0.06 |
| 10 |  Giants | 22 | 369 | 6.0% | +3.2 | −0.06 |
| 11 |  Lions | 22 | 424 | 5.2% | +1.9 | −0.21 |
| 12 |  Saints | 22 | 431 | 5.1% | +1.9 | −0.42 |
| 13 |  Commanders | 21 | 321 | 6.5% | +5.2 | +0.25 |
| 14 |  Browns | 21 | 358 | 5.9% | +2.5 | +0.22 |
| 15 |  Chiefs | 21 | 404 | 5.2% | +1.5 | 0.00 |
| 16 |  Bengals | 21 | 469 | 4.5% | −1.7 | +0.24 |
| 17 |  Ravens | 20 | 309 | 6.5% | +4.7 | −0.14 |
| 18 |  Panthers | 20 | 363 | 5.5% | +2.7 | −0.17 |
| 19 |  49ers | 20 | 436 | 4.6% | +0.2 | +0.22 |
| 20 |  Buccaneers | 18 | 393 | 4.6% | −2.0 | −0.03 |
| 21 |  Colts | 18 | 394 | 4.6% | −0.7 | +0.09 |
| 22 |  Eagles | 17 | 348 | 4.9% | +1.0 | +0.44 |
| 23 |  Packers | 17 | 358 | 4.7% | −0.7 | +0.07 |
| 24 |  Falcons | 17 | 371 | 4.6% | −0.1 | −1.00 |
| 25 |  Raiders | 17 | 373 | 4.6% | −0.5 | −0.21 |
| 26 |  Texans | 17 | 397 | 4.3% | −1.8 | +0.79 |
| 27 |  Dolphins | 16 | 345 | 4.6% | −0.5 | −0.27 |
| 28 |  Chargers | 16 | 402 | 4.0% | −2.8 | +0.51 |
| 29 |  Cardinals | 16 | 454 | 3.5% | −3.7 | +0.22 |
| 30 |  Patriots | 13 | 383 | 3.4% | −4.8 | +0.39 |
| 31 |  Steelers | 13 | 390 | 3.3% | −4.8 | +0.07 |
| 32 |  Seahawks | 12 | 344 | 3.5% | −3.6 | +0.69 |
Drops and catchable balls: FTN Data via nflverse (interceptions excluded). Above expected: drops minus the sum of each receiver’s expected drop rate. League rate 2025: 5.3%.
Most drops by a player, 2025
Questions
Which NFL team dropped the most passes in 2025?
The Jaguars: 38 drops on 399 catchable balls, 9.5%. The league rate is 5.3%.
Are drops luck?
Mostly. Some receivers drop more than others, so each drop is measured against that receiver’s own rate. What’s left doesn’t carry over: a team’s drops above expected correlate from one season to the next at −0.09 (96 team-seasons). A drop on third down costs the most, since it costs the first down.
Who gained the most from drops in 2025?
The Texans, +0.79 wins, counting their own receivers’ drops and their opponents’, each weighted by the moment it came.
Other seasons: 2026 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022
2025 luck rankings · Turnover luck · Kicking luck · Every kind of luck