2023 NFL season · final
Dropped passes, 2023: every team’s drops and drop luck
The Chiefs dropped the most passes in 2023: 33 of 482 catchable balls (6.8%), 8.3 more than their receivers usually drop. The Eagles dropped the fewest, 12. The most by one player: D. Adams (Raiders), 8.
FTN’s charting marks every catchable ball and every drop. Each drop is measured against the receiver’s own record, so a sure-handed receiver’s drop counts as bad luck and a shaky one’s as less so. Drops above expected don’t carry over from one season to the next (−0.09). Luck in wins weighs each drop by the moment, own receivers’ and opponents’. Regular season only. Methodology
Drops by team, 2023
| # | Team | Drops | Catchable balls | Drop rate | Above expected | Drop luck in wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chiefs | 33 | 482 | 6.8% | +8.3 | −0.81 |
| 2 |  Buccaneers | 27 | 405 | 6.7% | +7.0 | −0.34 |
| 3 |  Lions | 27 | 447 | 6.0% | +5.4 | +0.45 |
| 4 |  Browns | 26 | 406 | 6.4% | +6.3 | −0.37 |
| 5 |  Colts | 26 | 408 | 6.4% | +6.7 | −0.15 |
| 6 |  Rams | 26 | 408 | 6.4% | +5.8 | +0.09 |
| 7 |  Chargers | 26 | 457 | 5.7% | +4.7 | −0.58 |
| 8 |  Cowboys | 25 | 480 | 5.2% | +2.5 | −0.45 |
| 9 |  Jaguars | 24 | 451 | 5.3% | +1.0 | +0.09 |
| 10 |  Raiders | 23 | 394 | 5.8% | +3.8 | +0.07 |
| 11 |  Patriots | 23 | 394 | 5.8% | +3.4 | −0.10 |
| 12 |  Giants | 22 | 373 | 5.9% | +3.7 | +0.57 |
| 13 |  Bills | 22 | 427 | 5.2% | +2.3 | −0.57 |
| 14 |  Ravens | 21 | 360 | 5.8% | +2.9 | −0.37 |
| 15 |  Vikings | 21 | 469 | 4.5% | −0.9 | +0.02 |
| 16 |  Bengals | 21 | 475 | 4.4% | −0.8 | −0.39 |
| 17 |  Commanders | 20 | 445 | 4.5% | −0.8 | −0.21 |
| 18 |  Titans | 19 | 352 | 5.4% | +0.9 | −0.22 |
| 19 |  Falcons | 19 | 363 | 5.2% | +1.7 | −0.50 |
| 20 |  Seahawks | 19 | 399 | 4.8% | +0.8 | −0.06 |
| 21 |  Saints | 19 | 446 | 4.3% | −2.2 | +0.10 |
| 22 |  Panthers | 18 | 387 | 4.7% | −0.1 | −0.28 |
| 23 |  Texans | 18 | 411 | 4.4% | −1.8 | +0.90 |
| 24 |  Jets | 18 | 412 | 4.4% | −2.9 | +0.08 |
| 25 |  Packers | 18 | 423 | 4.3% | −3.4 | +0.82 |
| 26 |  Bears | 17 | 348 | 4.9% | +1.3 | 0.00 |
| 27 |  Broncos | 17 | 380 | 4.5% | −0.9 | −0.20 |
| 28 |  Cardinals | 17 | 384 | 4.4% | −1.4 | +0.11 |
| 29 |  Dolphins | 17 | 424 | 4.0% | −3.6 | +0.16 |
| 30 |  Steelers | 15 | 353 | 4.2% | −2.2 | +0.53 |
| 31 |  49ers | 14 | 357 | 3.9% | −2.3 | −0.04 |
| 32 |  Eagles | 12 | 393 | 3.1% | −6.1 | +1.67 |
Drops and catchable balls: FTN Data via nflverse (interceptions excluded). Above expected: drops minus the sum of each receiver’s expected drop rate. League rate 2023: 5.1%.
Most drops by a player, 2023
Questions
Which NFL team dropped the most passes in 2023?
The Chiefs: 33 drops on 482 catchable balls, 6.8%. The league rate is 5.1%.
Are drops luck?
Mostly. Some receivers drop more than others, so each drop is measured against that receiver’s own rate. What’s left doesn’t carry over: a team’s drops above expected correlate from one season to the next at −0.09 (96 team-seasons). A drop on third down costs the most, since it costs the first down.
Who gained the most from drops in 2023?
The Eagles, +1.67 wins, counting their own receivers’ drops and their opponents’, each weighted by the moment it came.
Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2022
2023 luck rankings · Turnover luck · Kicking luck · Every kind of luck