luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 9 2025 · October 25, 2025

Texas at Mississippi State, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

Texas beat Mississippi State 45–38, but the replays lean toward Mississippi State: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 16 points of win probability to Texas.

Before kickoff Texas was a 71% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:47 left): Return touchdown by Texas, worth 41 points of win probability to Texas.

Final (OT)

Texas Longhorns 45
Mississippi State Bulldogs 38

October 25, 2025 · Davis Wade Stadium · Closing line: Texas −8.5

Luck index +61 Texas very lucky · −61 Mississippi State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texas wins 4, Mississippi State wins 6.

  1. 1 TEX 34 MSST 10
  2. 2 TEX 28 MSST 14
  3. 3 TEX 50 MSST 42
  4. 4 TEX 23 MSST 20
  5. 5 TEX 17 MSST 20
  6. 6 TEX 27 MSST 34
  7. 7 TEX 13 MSST 24
  8. 8 TEX 13 MSST 28
  9. 9 TEX 17 MSST 37
  10. 10 TEX 20 MSST 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texas wins 39% of them, Mississippi State 61%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texas by 17+10.5%
Texas by 9–1610.6%
Texas by 1–816.1%
Level after regulation4.0%
Mississippi State by 1–819.1%
Mississippi State by 9–1616.4%
Mississippi State by 17+23.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.2 points to Texas: the final margin was Texas by 7, without the luck Texas by 4.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • K. Ferrie, 47 yds blocked · 60% expected
  • K. Ferrie, 24 yds made · 92% expected
  • M. Shipley, 29 yds missed · 89% expected
  • M. Shipley, 26 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texas 8 for 56 yards, Mississippi State 5 for 27 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:59 Illegal Block on Texas, 5 yards 0% MSST +0.3 pts
Q1 10:26 Pass Interference on Texas, 15 yards +3% MSST +1.8 pts
Q1 4:42 False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MSST +0.7 pts
Q1 0:22 False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MSST +0.7 pts
Q3 10:16 Offside on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MSST +0.9 pts
Q3 7:28 Ineligible Downfield on Mississippi State, 5 yards +2% TEX +0.7 pts
Q3 2:26 Personal Foul on Texas, 14 yards +4% MSST +1.6 pts
Q3 1:19 Offside on Texas, 2 yards · pre-snap +1% MSST +0.5 pts
Q4 13:28 Pass Interference on Mississippi State, 1 yard +1% TEX +0.3 pts
Q4 13:23 Pass Interference on Mississippi State, 1 yard +1% TEX +0.3 pts
Q4 13:21 False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap +26% MSST +1.2 pts
Q4 11:17 Roughing the Passer on Mississippi State, 15 yards +2% TEX +1.8 pts
Q4 0:13 Delay of Game on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEX +0.1 pts

When it happened

Mississippi State’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 97%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Mississippi State was ahead in it, below while Texas was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 12:41 Texas converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +10% MSST TEX: Punt
2 Q3 10:41 M. Shipley missed a 29-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him +10% MSST TEX: Punt
3 Q3 5:32 Mississippi State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +10% TEX MSST: Touchdown
4 Q3 0:26 Mississippi State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +10% TEX MSST: Touchdown
5 Q4 13:21 False Start on Texas, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +26% MSST MSST: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:47 Return touchdown by TexasSpecial teams +41% TEX TEX: End of game
7 Q4 0:13 Mississippi State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedMississippi State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Delay of Game on Mississippi State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +11% MSST MSST: Punt
8 OT Mississippi State fumbled and Texas recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% TEX –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texas 74% · Mississippi State 26%

Final margin
Texas by 7
Luck in points
2.2 for Texas
Luck-adjusted margin
Texas by 4.8
Replay with same day's form
Texas 39% · Mississippi State 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Texas · Mississippi State

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