luckadjusted
CFB Week 10 · 2026

2026 college football season · October 20, 2026–October 24, 2026

Week 8 2026: upsets, and who deserved to win

20 upsets in Week 8 2026. The biggest: UL Monroe beat Troy 21–14 as 19% underdogs, and deserved it. 8 of 56 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: App State beat James Madison 34–31 in a game it wins 29% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Week 8 2026 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 11 of 20 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
UL Monroe 21–14 @ Troy 19% 84% Deserved
App State 34–31 vs James Madison 21% 29% Lucky
Southern Miss 35–31 vs Louisiana 23% 76% Deserved
Middle Tennessee 26–23 @ Florida International 25% 69% Deserved
Cincinnati 37–24 vs Texas Tech 25% 91% Deserved
Illinois 21–10 vs Oregon 25% 55% Coin flip
West Virginia 24–20 @ TCU 26% 20% Lucky
Stanford 31–28 vs NC State 31% 66% Deserved
UCF 39–31 vs BYU 31% 57% Coin flip
Minnesota 13–10 vs Iowa 31% 54% Coin flip
Syracuse 31–30 @ North Carolina 31% 32% Lucky
Wyoming 28–14 vs Air Force 33% 65% Deserved
Boston College 49–27 @ Georgia Tech 34% 96% Deserved
Virginia Tech 20–16 @ Clemson 42% 19% Lucky
Duke 19–16 @ Virginia 44% 74% Deserved
Arkansas State 38–32 vs Georgia State 44% 45% Coin flip
Marshall 20–13 vs South Alabama 46% 86% Deserved
Arizona State 28–17 vs Kansas State 46% 85% Deserved
Colorado State 56–49 vs San Diego State 46% 69% Deserved
Wisconsin 24–7 vs USC 46% 48% Coin flip

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 8 luck ranking

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Florida Atlantic W 51–49 vs Rice 4% +96
2 Army W 38–35 @ Tulsa 7% +93
3 Virginia Tech W 20–16 @ Clemson 19% +81
4 West Virginia W 24–20 @ TCU 20% +80
5 App State W 34–31 vs James Madison 29% +71
6 Texas State W 20–17 vs Utah State 30% +70
7 Syracuse W 31–30 @ North Carolina 32% +68
8 Buffalo W 31–24 vs Bowling Green 37% +63
9 Arkansas State W 38–32 vs Georgia State 45% +55
10 Wisconsin W 24–7 vs USC 48% +52
11 Minnesota W 13–10 vs Iowa 54% +46
12 Illinois W 21–10 vs Oregon 55% +45
13 South Carolina W 27–24 vs Tennessee 56% +44
14 Delaware W 61–38 vs Missouri State 57% +43
15 UCF W 39–31 vs BYU 57% +43
16 Memphis W 41–34 vs East Carolina 62% +38
17 Liberty W 34–6 @ Kennesaw State 63% +37
18 Wyoming W 28–14 vs Air Force 65% +35
19 Stanford W 31–28 vs NC State 66% +34
20 Middle Tennessee W 26–23 @ Florida International 69% +31
21 Colorado State W 56–49 vs San Diego State 69% +31
22 Indiana W 13–6 @ Michigan 71% +29
23 Duke W 19–16 @ Virginia 74% +26
24 Southern Miss W 35–31 vs Louisiana 76% +24
25 Nevada W 28–13 vs San José State 77% +23
26 Kansas W 25–24 vs Baylor 78% +22
27 Kent State W 35–20 vs Akron 78% +22
28 Ohio W 24–20 vs Eastern Michigan 78% +22
29 Texas W 34–27 vs Ole Miss 82% +18
30 New Mexico State W 30–24 @ Sam Houston 82% +18
31 North Texas W 49–39 @ Navy 83% +17
32 Oklahoma W 23–15 @ Mississippi State 83% +17
33 Oklahoma State W 57–24 vs Colorado 84% +16
34 UL Monroe W 21–14 @ Troy 84% +16
35 Alabama W 31–20 vs Texas A&M 85% +15
36 Arizona State W 28–17 vs Kansas State 85% +15
37 Hawai'i W 56–21 @ Northern Illinois 85% +15
38 Marshall W 20–13 vs South Alabama 86% +14
39 New Mexico W 21–16 vs North Dakota State 89% +11
40 Cincinnati W 37–24 vs Texas Tech 91% +9
41 Kentucky W 34–17 vs Vanderbilt 91% +9
42 Arizona W 39–3 vs Iowa State 92% +8
43 Miami W 52–23 vs Pittsburgh 92% +8
44 Miami (OH) W 28–27 @ Central Michigan 93% +7
45 Toledo W 45–38 vs Western Michigan 93% +7
46 Boise State W 31–10 @ Washington State 95% +5
47 LSU W 38–17 @ Auburn 95% +5
48 UTSA W 42–19 @ Tulane 95% +5
49 Ball State W 34–17 vs Sacramento State 96% +4
50 Boston College W 49–27 @ Georgia Tech 96% +4
51 Utah W 21–13 vs Houston 97% +3
52 Louisiana Tech W 26–0 vs Old Dominion 98% +2
53 SMU W 59–20 vs California 99% +1
54 UCLA W 28–10 vs Michigan State 99% +1
55 UConn W 35–16 vs Massachusetts 99% +1
56 Northwestern W 42–14 vs Rutgers 99% +1
57 Rutgers L 14–42 @ Northwestern 1% −1
58 Massachusetts L 16–35 @ UConn 1% −1
59 Michigan State L 10–28 @ UCLA 1% −1
60 California L 20–59 @ SMU 1% −1
61 Old Dominion L 0–26 @ Louisiana Tech 2% −2
62 Houston L 13–21 @ Utah 3% −3
63 Georgia Tech L 27–49 vs Boston College 4% −4
64 Sacramento State L 17–34 @ Ball State 4% −4
65 Tulane L 19–42 vs UTSA 5% −5
66 Auburn L 17–38 vs LSU 5% −5
67 Washington State L 10–31 vs Boise State 5% −5
68 Western Michigan L 38–45 @ Toledo 7% −7
69 Central Michigan L 27–28 vs Miami (OH) 7% −7
70 Pittsburgh L 23–52 @ Miami 8% −8
71 Iowa State L 3–39 @ Arizona 8% −8
72 Vanderbilt L 17–34 @ Kentucky 9% −9
73 Texas Tech L 24–37 @ Cincinnati 9% −9
74 North Dakota State L 16–21 @ New Mexico 11% −11
75 South Alabama L 13–20 @ Marshall 14% −14
76 Northern Illinois L 21–56 vs Hawai'i 15% −15
77 Kansas State L 17–28 @ Arizona State 15% −15
78 Texas A&M L 20–31 @ Alabama 15% −15
79 Troy L 14–21 vs UL Monroe 16% −16
80 Colorado L 24–57 @ Oklahoma State 16% −16
81 Mississippi State L 15–23 vs Oklahoma 17% −17
82 Navy L 39–49 vs North Texas 17% −17
83 Sam Houston L 24–30 vs New Mexico State 18% −18
84 Ole Miss L 27–34 @ Texas 18% −18
85 Akron L 20–35 @ Kent State 22% −22
86 Eastern Michigan L 20–24 @ Ohio 22% −22
87 Baylor L 24–25 @ Kansas 22% −22
88 San José State L 13–28 @ Nevada 23% −23
89 Louisiana L 31–35 @ Southern Miss 24% −24
90 Virginia L 16–19 vs Duke 26% −26
91 Michigan L 6–13 vs Indiana 29% −29
92 San Diego State L 49–56 @ Colorado State 31% −31
93 Florida International L 23–26 vs Middle Tennessee 31% −31
94 NC State L 28–31 @ Stanford 34% −34
95 Air Force L 14–28 @ Wyoming 35% −35
96 Kennesaw State L 6–34 vs Liberty 37% −37
97 East Carolina L 34–41 @ Memphis 38% −38
98 BYU L 31–39 @ UCF 43% −43
99 Missouri State L 38–61 @ Delaware 43% −43
100 Tennessee L 24–27 @ South Carolina 44% −44
101 Oregon L 10–21 @ Illinois 45% −45
102 Iowa L 10–13 @ Minnesota 46% −46
103 USC L 7–24 @ Wisconsin 52% −52
104 Georgia State L 32–38 @ Arkansas State 55% −55
105 Bowling Green L 24–31 @ Buffalo 63% −63
106 North Carolina L 30–31 vs Syracuse 68% −68
107 Utah State L 17–20 @ Texas State 70% −70
108 James Madison L 31–34 @ App State 71% −71
109 TCU L 20–24 vs West Virginia 80% −80
110 Clemson L 16–20 vs Virginia Tech 81% −81
111 Tulsa L 35–38 vs Army 93% −93
112 Rice L 49–51 @ Florida Atlantic 96% −96