Mountain West · 2026 season, in progress

Nevada Wolf Pack: luck and expected wins

Nevada is 1–3 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.2 wins. Luck cost 1.2: the 4th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–2.

2026, game by game

How often Nevada wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Western Kentucky	W 49–14	100%	0
Week 2	vs Montana State	L 7–20	54%	−54
Week 3	@ Middle Tennessee	L 20–27	16%	−16
Week 4	vs Air Force	L 33–36	54%	−54

Wk 1 0 vs WKU

Wk 2 −54 vs MTST

Wk 3 −16 @ MTSU

Wk 4 −54 vs AF

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Nevada win chance
Week 6 · Oct 10	at UTEP	Nevada by 7.2	67%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at North Dakota State	North Dakota State by 18.3	13%
Week 8 · Oct 24	vs San José State	Nevada by 5.7	63%
Week 9 · Oct 31	at UCLA	UCLA by 24.4	7%
Week 10 · Nov 6	vs New Mexico	New Mexico by 11.8	24%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Northern Illinois	Nevada by 3.6	58%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs Hawai'i	Nevada by 5.7	63%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at UNLV	UNLV by 11.3	25%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Nevada’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.30	−3.4
Pre-snap flags	+0.16	+3.8
Kicks	−0.21	−2.1

Luckiest wins

Wins Nevada takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 2	vs Sacramento State	W 20–17	68%	+32
2025 Week 13	@ Wyoming	W 13–7	85%	+15
2025 Week 12	vs San José State	W 55–10	99%	+1
2026 Week 1	vs Western Kentucky	W 49–14	100%	0

Unluckiest losses

Losses Nevada would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 3	vs Middle Tennessee	L 13–14	79%	−79
2025 Week 9	vs Boise State	L 3–24	55%	−55
2026 Week 4	vs Air Force	L 33–36	54%	−54
2026 Week 2	vs Montana State	L 7–20	54%	−54
2025 Week 8	@ New Mexico	L 22–24	42%	−42

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	3–9	4.9	−1.9	2–3	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Penn State	L 11–46	2%	−2
Week 2	vs Sacramento State	W 20–17	68%	+32
Week 3	vs Middle Tennessee	L 13–14	79%	−79
Week 4	@ Western Kentucky	L 16–31	27%	−27
Week 6	@ Fresno State	L 17–20	27%	−27
Week 7	vs San Diego State	L 10–44	2%	−2
Week 8	@ New Mexico	L 22–24	42%	−42
Week 9	vs Boise State	L 3–24	55%	−55
Week 11	@ Utah State	L 14–51	1%	−1
Week 12	vs San José State	W 55–10	99%	+1
Week 13	@ Wyoming	W 13–7	85%	+15
Week 14	vs UNLV	L 17–42	2%	−2