College football · Week 7 2026 · Saturday, October 17
Nevada vs North Dakota State prediction and pick
Our Nevada Wolf Pack at North Dakota State Bison pick: North Dakota State by 18.3, 87% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 3 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±16.4, so about 54% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: North Dakota State by 18.3Nevada win 13%North Dakota State win 87%5649423528211470714212835424956← Nevada win byNorth Dakota State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Nevada win
13.0%
North Dakota State win
87.0%
Middle 50%: North Dakota State by 7 to North Dakota State by 29
50%
Middle 90%: Nevada by 8 to North Dakota State by 45
90%
Middle 95%: Nevada by 14 to North Dakota State by 50
95%
Exactly North Dakota State by 3
4.4%
Exactly North Dakota State by 7
4.3%
Exactly North Dakota State by 21
4.3%
Exactly North Dakota State by 17
4.2%
Exactly North Dakota State by 14
4.2%
P50
Half of games like this end between North Dakota State by 7 and North Dakota State by 29.
P90
9 in 10 between Nevada by 8 and North Dakota State by 45.
P95
19 in 20 between Nevada by 14 and North Dakota State by 50.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Nevada vs North Dakota State: questions and answers
Who will win Nevada vs North Dakota State?
Our forecast picks North Dakota State, with 87% to win; Nevada win 13% of the time.
What’s the spread for Nevada vs North Dakota State?
Our spread: North Dakota State −18.3. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Nevada vs North Dakota State?
Saturday, October 17, 2026, at 7:00 pm ET, at Fargodome.
Nevada at 
North Dakota State
