luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2026 college football season · after Week 4 · decided by 8 points or fewer

One-score games, 2026, and if they had flipped

Marshall is 3–0 in one-score games so far; replayed with the way both teams played, it wins 1.4 of those 3, the most close-game luck in FBS. Rutgers is 0–2, from play worth 1.3 wins.

TeamOne-score recordReplay wins in thoseClose-game luckRecordIf they flipped
Marshall 3–01.4 of 3+1.6 3–10–4
UAB 2–11.4 of 3+0.6 2–21–3
Boston College 2–11.5 of 3+0.5 2–21–3
Auburn 2–11.8 of 3+0.2 3–12–2
Michigan 2–12.2 of 3−0.2 3–12–2
Iowa 2–00.9 of 2+1.1 4–02–2
Wake Forest 2–01.0 of 2+1.0 3–11–3
South Florida 2–01.1 of 2+0.9 4–02–2
Tulane 2–01.1 of 2+0.9 2–20–4
Texas 2–01.1 of 2+0.9 4–02–2
Florida Atlantic 2–01.2 of 2+0.8 3–11–3
App State 2–01.2 of 2+0.8 3–11–3
Ole Miss 2–01.3 of 2+0.7 3–11–3
Cincinnati 2–01.3 of 2+0.7 4–02–2
Buffalo 2–01.5 of 2+0.5 2–20–4
Western Michigan 1–10.5 of 2+0.5 2–22–2
Ohio 1–10.6 of 2+0.4 2–22–2
Mississippi State 2–01.7 of 2+0.3 4–02–2
Army 1–10.7 of 2+0.3 2–12–1
Liberty 1–10.7 of 2+0.3 3–13–1
Oregon 1–10.9 of 2+0.1 3–13–1
Washington 1–11.0 of 20.0 3–13–1
North Carolina 1–11.0 of 20.0 2–12–1
South Alabama 1–11.1 of 2−0.1 2–22–2
Vanderbilt 1–11.1 of 2−0.1 3–13–1
East Carolina 1–11.2 of 2−0.2 2–22–2
UCF 1–11.2 of 2−0.2 3–13–1
Air Force 1–11.3 of 2−0.3 2–12–1
Miami (OH) 1–11.3 of 2−0.3 2–22–2
Jacksonville State 1–11.4 of 2−0.4 3–23–2
Middle Tennessee 1–11.4 of 2−0.4 2–22–2
Oklahoma 1–11.5 of 2−0.5 2–22–2
TCU 0–20.5 of 2−0.5 2–24–0
Bowling Green 0–20.6 of 2−0.6 0–42–2
Nevada 0–20.7 of 2−0.7 1–33–1
Navy 0–20.8 of 2−0.8 1–23–0
Coastal Carolina 0–20.9 of 2−0.9 1–33–1
UL Monroe 0–20.9 of 2−0.9 0–42–2
Charlotte 0–20.9 of 2−0.9 0–42–2
Temple 0–21.0 of 2−1.0 1–33–1
Louisville 0–21.1 of 2−1.1 2–24–0
Sam Houston 0–21.2 of 2−1.2 1–33–1
Georgia Tech 0–21.2 of 2−1.2 1–33–1
Rutgers 0–21.3 of 2−1.3 1–33–1
Arizona State 1–00.1 of 1+0.9 2–11–2
California 1–00.2 of 1+0.8 2–21–3
North Dakota State 1–00.2 of 1+0.8 4–03–1
Colorado 1–00.2 of 1+0.8 2–21–3
UTSA 1–00.2 of 1+0.8 3–12–2
USC 1–00.2 of 1+0.8 4–13–2
Duke 1–00.2 of 1+0.8 4–03–1
Tulsa 1–00.3 of 1+0.7 3–12–2
Minnesota 1–00.4 of 1+0.6 3–12–2
Wyoming 1–00.4 of 1+0.6 2–21–3
West Virginia 1–00.4 of 1+0.6 3–12–2
Troy 1–00.6 of 1+0.4 2–21–3
Arkansas State 1–00.6 of 1+0.4 2–21–3
Pittsburgh 1–00.6 of 1+0.4 4–03–1
Stanford 1–00.6 of 1+0.4 2–21–3
San José State 1–00.7 of 1+0.3 2–21–3
Clemson 1–00.7 of 1+0.3 3–12–2
Delaware 1–00.7 of 1+0.3 2–21–3
Texas Tech 1–00.7 of 1+0.3 4–03–1
Florida 1–00.7 of 1+0.3 4–03–1
Louisiana 1–00.7 of 1+0.3 3–12–2
Central Michigan 1–00.8 of 1+0.2 2–21–3
Wisconsin 1–00.8 of 1+0.2 3–12–2
Virginia Tech 1–00.8 of 1+0.2 4–03–1
Memphis 1–00.8 of 1+0.2 3–12–2
Toledo 1–00.9 of 1+0.1 3–12–2
James Madison 1–00.9 of 1+0.1 4–03–1
Indiana 1–00.9 of 1+0.1 4–03–1
Oklahoma State 1–01.0 of 10.0 3–12–2
SMU 1–01.0 of 10.0 3–12–2
Florida State 0–10.0 of 10.0 2–23–1
New Mexico 0–10.0 of 10.0 3–14–0
Missouri 0–10.1 of 1−0.1 3–14–0
Boise State 0–10.1 of 1−0.1 3–14–0
Northwestern 0–10.1 of 1−0.1 2–13–0
UNLV 0–10.2 of 1−0.2 2–23–1
Kansas State 0–10.2 of 1−0.2 3–14–0
UConn 0–10.2 of 1−0.2 2–23–1
Baylor 0–10.2 of 1−0.2 3–14–0
Penn State 0–10.2 of 1−0.2 3–14–0
Tennessee 0–10.2 of 1−0.2 3–14–0
NC State 0–10.2 of 1−0.2 2–23–1
Iowa State 0–10.2 of 1−0.2 2–23–1
South Carolina 0–10.3 of 1−0.3 2–23–1
Houston 0–10.3 of 1−0.3 3–14–0
LSU 0–10.3 of 1−0.3 3–14–0
Georgia Southern 0–10.3 of 1−0.3 1–32–2
Eastern Michigan 0–10.3 of 1−0.3 2–33–2
Purdue 0–10.4 of 1−0.4 1–32–2
Kennesaw State 0–10.4 of 1−0.4 1–32–2
Southern Miss 0–10.5 of 1−0.5 1–32–2
Old Dominion 0–10.5 of 1−0.5 1–32–2
Utah State 0–10.6 of 1−0.6 1–32–2
Rice 0–10.6 of 1−0.6 1–32–2
Ohio State 0–10.7 of 1−0.7 3–14–0
Florida International 0–10.7 of 1−0.7 2–23–1
Illinois 0–10.8 of 1−0.8 2–23–1
Texas State 0–10.8 of 1−0.8 2–23–1
Missouri State 0–10.8 of 1−0.8 1–32–2
Syracuse 0–10.8 of 1−0.8 1–22–1
Northern Illinois 0–10.8 of 1−0.8 0–41–3
Kansas 0–10.9 of 1−0.9 1–22–1
Fresno State 0–0–– 3–13–1
UCLA 0–0–– 4–04–0
Nebraska 0–0–– 4–04–0
Georgia State 0–0–– 3–13–1
Massachusetts 0–0–– 4–04–0
Texas A&M 0–0–– 2–22–2
Hawai'i 0–0–– 1–31–3
Alabama 0–0–– 4–04–0
Notre Dame 0–0–– 4–04–0
Colorado State 0–0–– 2–22–2
Arizona 0–0–– 3–13–1
Kentucky 0–0–– 3–13–1
BYU 0–0–– 3–03–0
Miami 0–0–– 4–04–0
Kent State 0–0–– 2–22–2
Georgia 0–0–– 4–04–0
Utah 0–0–– 4–04–0
Western Kentucky 0–0–– 1–31–3
UTEP 0–0–– 1–31–3
Michigan State 0–0–– 2–22–2
Virginia 0–0–– 3–13–1
Arkansas 0–0–– 2–22–2
Ball State 0–0–– 1–31–3
North Texas 0–0–– 2–22–2
Louisiana Tech 0–0–– 1–21–2
Sacramento State 0–0–– 1–41–4
Akron 0–0–– 1–31–3
Washington State 0–0–– 1–31–3
San Diego State 0–0–– 1–31–3
Maryland 0–0–– 2–22–2
New Mexico State 0–0–– 1–31–3
Oregon State 0–0–– 2–22–2

Most one-score games first. Close-game luck: one-score wins minus how many of those games the team wins in replays. If they flipped: the record with every one-score win a loss and every one-score loss a win.

Questions

Which college football team is luckiest in close games in 2026?

Marshall Thundering Herd so far: 3–0 in games decided by 8 points or fewer, from play worth 1.4 wins in those games (+1.6). The unluckiest: Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 0–2 from play worth 1.3.

Is winning close games a skill?

Mostly not. Close games turn on a kick, a bounce or a 4th down, and a team’s record in them swings far more than its play does. That’s why replay wins in one-score games are a better guide to next season than the record in them.

Which teams are unbeaten in one-score games in 2026?

Marshall (3–0), Iowa (2–0), Wake Forest (2–0), South Florida (2–0), Tulane (2–0), Texas (2–0), Florida Atlantic (2–0), App State (2–0) so far.

2026 luck rankings · Expected wins · Turnover luck · Power rankings