Big Ten · 2026 season, in progress
UCLA Bruins: luck and expected wins
UCLA is 4–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.3 wins. Luck added 0.7: the 20th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.
2026, game by game
How often UCLA wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ California | W 45–24 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 2 | vs San Diego State | W 28–10 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 3 | vs Purdue | W 52–38 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 4 | @ Maryland | W 54–3 | 72% | +28 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | UCLA win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | at Oregon |  Oregon by 8.7 | 29% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | vs Wisconsin |  UCLA by 8.2 | 69% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | vs Michigan State | UCLA by 12.0 | 77% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | vs Nevada | UCLA by 24.4 | 93% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | at Minnesota | UCLA by 5.4 | 63% |
| Week 11 · Nov 13 | vs Illinois | UCLA by 6.8 | 66% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | at Michigan |  Michigan by 0.5 | 49% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | vs USC | UCLA by 2.8 | 56% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in UCLA’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.06 | +1.4 |
| Pre-snap flags | −0.05 | −5.5 |
Luckiest wins
Wins UCLA takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 6 | vs Penn State | W 42–37 | 59% | +41 |
| 2026 Week 4 | @ Maryland | W 54–3 | 72% | +28 |
| 2026 Week 3 | vs Purdue | W 52–38 | 79% | +21 |
| 2025 Week 8 | vs Maryland | W 20–17 | 82% | +18 |
| 2026 Week 2 | vs San Diego State | W 28–10 | 82% | +18 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses UCLA would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 2 | @ UNLV | L 23–30 | 36% | −36 |
| 2025 Week 5 | @ Northwestern | L 14–17 | 34% | −34 |
| 2025 Week 1 | vs Utah | L 10–43 | 28% | −28 |
| 2025 Week 11 | vs Nebraska | L 21–28 | 17% | −17 |
| 2025 Week 3 | vs New Mexico | L 10–35 | 15% | −15 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3–9 | 3.7 | −0.7 | 2–3 | – |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Utah | L 10–43 | 28% | −28 |
| Week 2 | @ UNLV | L 23–30 | 36% | −36 |
| Week 3 | vs New Mexico | L 10–35 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 5 | @ Northwestern | L 14–17 | 34% | −34 |
| Week 6 | vs Penn State | W 42–37 | 59% | +41 |
| Week 7 | @ Michigan State | W 38–13 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 8 | vs Maryland | W 20–17 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 9 | @ Indiana | L 6–56 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 11 | vs Nebraska | L 21–28 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 12 | @ Ohio State | L 10–48 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 13 | vs Washington | L 14–48 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 14 | @ USC | L 10–29 | 7% | −7 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Big Ten teams by luck
- Big Ten:
Illinois, 
Indiana, 
Iowa, 
Maryland, Michigan, 
Michigan State, 
Minnesota, 
Nebraska, 
Northwestern, 
Ohio State, Oregon, 
Penn State, 
Purdue, 
Rutgers, 
USC, 
Washington, 
Wisconsin
How many wins does UCLA have in 2026?
4–0 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 3.3 wins.
Was UCLA lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Lucky so far: +0.7 wins of luck, the 20th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was UCLA’s luckiest season?
2026: 4–0 from play worth 3.3 wins, +0.7 of luck. The unluckiest: 2025, 3–9 from play worth 3.7 (−0.7).