Big Ten · 2026 season, in progress

Washington Huskies: luck and expected wins

Washington is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.9 wins. Luck added 0.1: the 69th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–1.

2026, game by game

How often Washington wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Washington State	W 24–10	89%	+11
Week 2	vs Utah State	W 16–14	41%	+59
Week 3	vs Eastern Washington	W 48–16	100%	0
Week 4	vs Minnesota	L 24–27	60%	−60

Wk 1 +11 vs WSU

Wk 2 +59 vs USU

Wk 3 0 vs EWU

Wk 4 −60 vs MINN

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Washington win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at USC	USC by 9.8	27%
Week 6 · Oct 9	vs Iowa	Iowa by 7.0	33%
Week 7 · Oct 16	at Purdue	Washington by 7.9	69%
Week 9 · Oct 31	at Nebraska	Nebraska by 11.7	24%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Penn State	Penn State by 6.9	34%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Michigan State	Michigan State by 0.5	49%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs Indiana	Indiana by 15.4	18%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at Oregon	Oregon by 14.9	19%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Washington’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Pre-snap flags	+0.07	+2.6
Fumble bounces	+0.06	+8.4
Kicks	−0.07	−0.7
3rd & 4th downs	−0.13	+1.2

Luckiest wins

Wins Washington takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 2	vs Utah State	W 16–14	41%	+59
2025 Week 9	vs Illinois	W 42–25	58%	+42
2025 Week 4	@ Washington State	W 59–24	80%	+20
2025 Week 6	@ Maryland	W 24–20	83%	+17
2025 Week 7	vs Rutgers	W 38–19	83%	+17

Unluckiest losses

Losses Washington would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 11	@ Wisconsin	L 10–13	77%	−77
2025 Week 14	vs Oregon	L 14–26	67%	−67
2026 Week 4	vs Minnesota	L 24–27	60%	−60
2025 Week 5	vs Ohio State	L 6–24	21%	−21
2025 Week 8	@ Michigan	L 7–24	10%	−10

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	8–4	8.7	−0.7	1–1	1–0

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Colorado State	W 38–21	96%	+4
Week 2	vs UC Davis	W 70–10	100%	0
Week 4	@ Washington State	W 59–24	80%	+20
Week 5	vs Ohio State	L 6–24	21%	−21
Week 6	@ Maryland	W 24–20	83%	+17
Week 7	vs Rutgers	W 38–19	83%	+17
Week 8	@ Michigan	L 7–24	10%	−10
Week 9	vs Illinois	W 42–25	58%	+42
Week 11	@ Wisconsin	L 10–13	77%	−77
Week 12	vs Purdue	W 49–13	100%	0
Week 13	@ UCLA	W 48–14	100%	0
Week 14	vs Oregon	L 14–26	67%	−67
Bucked Up LA Bowl	vs Boise State	W 38–10	97%	+3