luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025

Ohio State at Washington, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

Ohio State beat Washington 24–6, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff Ohio State was a 73% favorite.

Final

Ohio State Buckeyes 24
Washington Huskies 6

September 27, 2025 · Husky Stadium · Closing line: Ohio State −9.5

Luck index +21 Ohio State about even · −21 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ohio State wins 8, Washington wins 2.

  1. 1 OSU 35 WASH 7
  2. 2 OSU 28 WASH 7
  3. 3 OSU 28 WASH 10
  4. 4 OSU 21 WASH 7
  5. 5 OSU 20 WASH 7
  6. 6 OSU 16 WASH 7
  7. 7 OSU 23 WASH 17
  8. 8 OSU 17 WASH 14
  9. 9 OSU 21 WASH 24
  10. 10 OSU 14 WASH 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ohio State wins 79% of them, Washington 21%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ohio State by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ohio State by 17+27.9%
Ohio State by 9–1623.4%
Ohio State by 1–823.0%
Level after regulation6.9%
Washington by 1–812.6%
Washington by 9–164.6%
Washington by 17+1.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.7 points to Ohio State: the final margin was Ohio State by 18, without the luck Ohio State by 7.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • G. Gross, 28 yds made · 88% expected
  • G. Gross, 28 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Fielding, 34 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ohio State 5 for 60 yards, Washington 6 for 49 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:00 Penalty on Washington, 11 yards +2% OSU +1.0 pts
Q1 6:13 Penalty on Washington, 8 yards +2% OSU +1.3 pts
Q1 6:05 Illegal Snap on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% OSU +0.5 pts
Q1 2:47 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% OSU +0.5 pts
Q1 0:31 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% OSU +0.9 pts
Q2 1:14 False Start on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WASH +0.3 pts
Q3 9:52 Personal Foul on Ohio State, 15 yards +2% WASH +1.0 pts
Q3 8:49 Roughing the Passer on Washington, 15 yards +3% OSU +1.6 pts
Q3 6:23 Face Mask on Ohio State, 15 yards +3% WASH +1.6 pts
Q4 14:56 Holding on Ohio State, 10 yards +1% WASH +0.8 pts
Q4 10:27 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Ohio State, 15 yards +2% WASH +1.6 pts

When it happened

Washington’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Washington was ahead in it, below while Ohio State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:48 Washington was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +3% OSU WASH: Punt
2 Q1 8:40 Ohio State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +3% WASH OSU: Punt
3 Q1 5:00 Ohio State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% OSU OSU: Punt
4 Q2 10:42 Ohio State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +3% WASH OSU: Punt
5 Q2 7:43 Washington converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +3% WASH WASH: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 4:39 Washington was stopped on 4th & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +3% OSU WASH: End of half
7 Q2 1:08 Ohio State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% OSU OSU: Touchdown
8 Q3 4:29 Washington was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +3% OSU WASH: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ohio State 92% · Washington 8%

Final margin
Ohio State by 18
Luck in points
10.7 for Ohio State
Luck-adjusted margin
Ohio State by 7.3
Replay with same day's form
Ohio State 79% · Washington 21% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Ohio State · Washington

More from Week 5 2025

Every week 5 game, 2025