Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia Tech beat Wake Forest 30–29, but the replays lean toward Wake Forest: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 18 points of win probability to Georgia Tech.
Georgia Tech won on an off day: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Wake Forest it would win 74% of the time; with this day’s form, 40%. The numbers
Before kickoff Georgia Tech was an 81% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 6:54 left): C. Calvert missed a 27-yard field goal, worth 19 points of win probability to Georgia Tech.
Final (OT)
 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 30 |
|---|---|
 Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 29 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +60 Georgia Tech very lucky · −60 Wake Forest
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Georgia Tech wins 4, Wake Forest wins 6.
- 1 GT 27 WAKE 3
- 2 GT 24 WAKE 10
- 3 GT 21 WAKE 13
- 4 GT 23 WAKE 20
- 5 GT 35 WAKE 37
- 6 GT 21 WAKE 26
- 7 GT 17 WAKE 24
- 8 GT 28 WAKE 41
- 9 GT 9 WAKE 27
- 10 GT 3 WAKE 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Georgia Tech won on an off day
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Wake Forest it would win 74% of the time; with this day’s form, 40%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
34 points apart for Georgia Tech: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Tech offenseEPA per play gained | −0.09 | +0.09 | worse by 0.18 |
| Georgia Tech defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.09 | better by 0.05 |
| Wake Forest offenseEPA per play gained | +0.03 | +0.06 | worse by 0.02 |
| Wake Forest defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.09 | +0.08 | better by 0.17 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Georgia Tech wins 40% of them, Wake Forest 60%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Georgia Tech by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Georgia Tech by 17+ | 9.5% |
| Georgia Tech by 9–16 | 10.5% |
| Georgia Tech by 1–8 | 16.8% |
| Level after regulation | 3.8% |
| Wake Forest by 1–8 | 21.9% |
| Wake Forest by 9–16 | 16.9% |
| Wake Forest by 17+ | 20.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Birr, 35 yds made · 83% expected
- C. Calvert, 24 yds made · 90% expected
- C. Calvert, 24 yds made · 90% expected
- A. Birr, 19 yds made · 97% expected
- C. Calvert, 27 yds missed · 88% expected
- C. Calvert, 29 yds made · 85% expected
- A. Birr, 33 yds made · 86% expected
Penalties: Georgia Tech 4 for 23 yards, Wake Forest 7 for 66 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:19 | Personal Foul on Wake Forest, 13 yards | +1% GT +1.0 pts |
| Q1 8:45 | False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WAKE +0.4 pts |
| Q1 2:39 | Unnecessary Roughness on Wake Forest, 15 yards | +2% GT +1.6 pts |
| Q1 2:26 | False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WAKE +0.6 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GT +0.7 pts |
| Q3 0:00 | Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards | 0% GT +0.7 pts |
| Q4 14:47 | Illegal Forward Pass on Wake Forest, 5 yards | +4% GT +1.1 pts |
| Q4 14:47 | Offside on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% WAKE +0.5 pts |
| Q4 6:10 | Penalty on Georgia Tech, 8 yards | +8% WAKE +1.2 pts |
| Q4 3:50 | Holding on Wake Forest, 3 yards | +4% GT +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:19 | Pass Interference on Wake Forest, 15 yards | +7% GT +0.8 pts |
When it happened
Wake Forest’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 6:27 | Wake Forest converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +6% WAKE | WAKE: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 13:39 | Wake Forest converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +6% WAKE | WAKE: Field goal |
| 3 | Q4 13:43 | Georgia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +7% WAKE | GT: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 6:54 | The game turned hereC. Calvert missed a 27-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him | +19% GT | WAKE: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 6:49 | Georgia Tech fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% GT | GT: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 6:10 | Penalty on Georgia Tech, 8 yardsJudgment calls | +8% WAKE | WAKE: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 1:19 | Pass Interference on Wake Forest, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% GT | GT: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:50 | Georgia Tech converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +8% GT | GT: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Georgia Tech 40% · Wake Forest 60%
- Final margin
- Georgia Tech by 1
- Luck in points
- 2.5 for Georgia Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Wake Forest by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Georgia Tech 40% · Wake Forest 60% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Georgia Tech · 
Wake Forest
More from Week 5 2025
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- San José State at Stanford STAN 30–29 · replay 43% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at NC State VT 23–21 · replay 45% for the winner
- Florida State at Virginia UVA 46–38 · replay 78% for the winner
- Duke at Syracuse DUKE 38–3 · replay 96% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner
- Houston at Oregon State HOU 27–24 · replay 34% for the winner
- Oregon at Penn State ORE 30–24 · replay 39% for the winner
- Rutgers at Minnesota MINN 31–28 · replay 41% for the winner