luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025

Hawai'i at Air Force, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

Hawai'i beat Air Force 44–35, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Air Force wins 10 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 26 points of win probability to Hawai'i.

Hawai'i won on an off day: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Air Force it would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%. The numbers

Before kickoff Air Force was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 9:21 left): Hawai'i was stopped on 4th & 2, worth 11 points of win probability to Air Force.

Final

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 44
Air Force Falcons 35

September 27, 2025 · Falcon Stadium · Closing line: Air Force −7

Luck index +95 Hawai'i very lucky · −95 Air Force

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Hawai'i wins 0, Air Force wins 10.

  1. 1 HAW 38 AF 42
  2. 2 HAW 34 AF 42
  3. 3 HAW 23 AF 35
  4. 4 HAW 23 AF 39
  5. 5 HAW 7 AF 28
  6. 6 HAW 21 AF 45
  7. 7 HAW 14 AF 40
  8. 8 HAW 19 AF 49
  9. 9 HAW 23 AF 56
  10. 10 HAW 14 AF 59

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

Hawai'i won on an off day

Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Air Force it would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%.

31 points apart for Hawai'i: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Hawai'i offenseEPA per play gained +0.37 +0.05 better by 0.33
Hawai'i defenseEPA per play allowed +0.30 +0.06 worse by 0.24
Air Force offenseEPA per play gained +0.30 +0.07 better by 0.22
Air Force defenseEPA per play allowed +0.37 +0.17 worse by 0.20

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Hawai'i wins 5% of them, Air Force 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Hawai'i by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Hawai'i by 17+0.3%
Hawai'i by 9–160.8%
Hawai'i by 1–82.9%
Level after regulation0.6%
Air Force by 1–89.6%
Air Force by 9–1615.4%
Air Force by 17+70.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +15.0 points to Hawai'i: the final margin was Hawai'i by 9, without the luck Air Force by 6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • K. Matsuzawa, 31 yds made · 87% expected
  • K. Matsuzawa, 39 yds made · 76% expected
  • K. Matsuzawa, 25 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Hawai'i 4 for 27 yards, Air Force 4 for 27 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 4:37 Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% AF +3.2 pts
Q3 11:58 Ineligible Downfield on Hawai'i, 5 yards +5% AF +1.8 pts
Q3 9:14 Ineligible Downfield on Air Force, 5 yards +2% HAW +0.7 pts
Q3 0:39 Intentional Grounding on Hawai'i, 10 yards +3% AF +2.0 pts
Q4 6:36 False Start on Air Force, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HAW +0.9 pts
Q4 6:16 Face Mask on Hawai'i, 2 yards 0% AF +1.4 pts
Q4 4:23 Personal Foul on Air Force, 15 yards +4% HAW +0.9 pts
Q4 1:20 Delay of Game on Air Force, 2 yards · pre-snap 0% HAW +0.9 pts

When it happened

Air Force’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 68%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Air Force was ahead in it, below while Hawai'i was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 5:13 Hawai'i converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +5% HAW HAW: Field goal
2 Q2 4:37 Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% AF AF: Punt
3 Q3 11:03 Hawai'i converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% HAW HAW: Turnover on downs
4 Q3 9:21 Hawai'i was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +11% AF HAW: Touchdown
5 Q3 7:33 Air Force was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +10% HAW AF: Turnover
6 Q3 7:13 Hawai'i converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% HAW HAW: Touchdown
7 Q3 3:55 Hawai'i converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +5% HAW HAW: Touchdown
8 Q4 5:06 Hawai'i converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% HAW HAW: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Hawai'i 13% · Air Force 87%

Final margin
Hawai'i by 9
Luck in points
15.0 for Hawai'i
Luck-adjusted margin
Air Force by 6.0
Replay with same day's form
Hawai'i 5% · Air Force 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Hawai'i · Air Force

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