Mountain West · 2026 season, in progress

Air Force Falcons: luck and expected wins

Air Force is 2–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.3 wins. Luck cost 0.3: the 45th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–1.

2026, game by game

How often Air Force wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Duquesne	W 34–0	100%	0
Week 2	vs North Dakota State	L 32–38	81%	−81
Week 4	@ Nevada	W 36–33	46%	+54

Wk 1 0 vs DUQ

Wk 2 −81 vs NDSU

Wk 4 +54 @ NEV

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Air Force win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Navy	Air Force by 2.4	56%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at Northern Illinois	Air Force by 8.0	69%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs UNLV	UNLV by 0.6	48%
Week 8 · Oct 23	at Wyoming	Air Force by 6.1	64%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs UConn	UConn by 0.5	49%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at Army	Army by 11.6	24%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs San José State	Air Force by 10.1	72%
Week 12 · Nov 20	vs UTEP	Air Force by 17.9	85%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at New Mexico	New Mexico by 13.7	21%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Air Force’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.15	−4.5
Pre-snap flags	+0.06	+1.5
3rd & 4th downs	−0.06	+7.5
Fumble bounces	−0.39	−1.7

Luckiest wins

Wins Air Force takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 11	@ San José State	W 26–16	5%	+95
2025 Week 8	vs Wyoming	W 24–21	13%	+87
2026 Week 4	@ Nevada	W 36–33	46%	+54
2025 Week 14	@ Colorado State	W 42–21	71%	+29
2025 Week 1	vs Bucknell	W 49–13	100%	0

Unluckiest losses

Losses Air Force would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 5	vs Hawai'i	L 35–44	95%	−95
2026 Week 2	vs North Dakota State	L 32–38	81%	−81
2025 Week 10	vs Army	L 17–20	66%	−66
2025 Week 12	@ UConn	L 16–26	45%	−45
2025 Week 7	@ UNLV	L 48–51	38%	−38

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	4–8	4.9	−0.9	1–3	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Bucknell	W 49–13	100%	0
Week 3	@ Utah State	L 30–49	0%	0
Week 4	vs Boise State	L 37–49	25%	−25
Week 5	vs Hawai'i	L 35–44	95%	−95
Week 6	@ Navy	L 31–34	26%	−26
Week 7	@ UNLV	L 48–51	38%	−38
Week 8	vs Wyoming	W 24–21	13%	+87
Week 10	vs Army	L 17–20	66%	−66
Week 11	@ San José State	W 26–16	5%	+95
Week 12	@ UConn	L 16–26	45%	−45
Week 13	vs New Mexico	L 3–20	10%	−10
Week 14	@ Colorado State	W 42–21	71%	+29