Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Air Force at Utah State, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Utah State beat Air Force 49–30, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Utah State wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Air Force: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Utah State it would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 0%. The numbers
Before kickoff Air Force was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:10 left): T. Rinker made a 36-yard field goal, worth 16 points of win probability to Utah State.
Final
 Air Force Falcons | 30 |
|---|---|
 Utah State Aggies | 49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Utah State about even · 0 Air Force
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Air Force wins 0, Utah State wins 10.
- 1 AF 17 USU 30
- 2 AF 17 USU 37
- 3 AF 14 USU 40
- 4 AF 24 USU 55
- 5 AF 14 USU 48
- 6 AF 3 USU 41
- 7 AF 16 USU 59
- 8 AF 7 USU 54
- 9 AF 7 USU 58
- 10 AF 0 USU 60
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Air Force
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Utah State it would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 0%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
45 points apart for Air Force: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force offenseEPA per play gained | +0.00 | +0.06 | worse by 0.06 |
| Air Force defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.34 | +0.10 | worse by 0.24 |
| Utah State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.34 | +0.10 | better by 0.24 |
| Utah State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.00 | +0.07 | better by 0.07 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Air Force wins 0% of them, Utah State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Utah State by 19.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Air Force by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Air Force by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Air Force by 1–8 | 0.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| Utah State by 1–8 | 1.2% |
| Utah State by 9–16 | 2.9% |
| Utah State by 17+ | 95.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Medina, 31 yds made · 85% expected
- T. Rinker, 36 yds made · 80% expected
Penalties: Air Force 4 for 35 yards, Utah State 4 for 38 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:27 | Illegal Substitution on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% AF +1.2 pts |
| Q2 14:46 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Utah State, 23 yards | +4% AF +1.4 pts |
| Q2 8:39 | False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% AF +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:18 | Intentional Grounding on Air Force, 0 yards | 0% USU 0.0 pts |
| Q3 13:19 | Pass Interference on Air Force, 15 yards | +4% USU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 5:39 | Holding on Air Force, 10 yards | +1% USU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 6:37 | Illegal Substitution on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% AF +0.5 pts |
| Q4 4:10 | Personal Foul on Air Force, 10 yards | +7% USU +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Utah State’s chance of winning
As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:04 | Utah State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% USU | USU: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 13:19 | Pass Interference on Air Force, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% USU | USU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 4:52 | Air Force converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +5% AF | AF: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 2:21 | Air Force converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expectedAir Force’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +9% USU | AF: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 11:25 | Utah State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +7% AF | USU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 9:55 | Air Force converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +12% AF | AF: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 4:46 | Utah State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +4% AF | USU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 4:10 | T. Rinker made a 36-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for himPersonal Foul on Air Force, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +16% USU | USU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Air Force 0% · Utah State 100%
- Final margin
- Utah State by 19
- Luck in points
- 8.4 for Air Force
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Utah State by 27.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Air Force 0% · Utah State 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Air Force · 
Utah State
More from Week 3 2025
- Middle Tennessee at Nevada MTSU 14–13 · replay 21% for the winner
- Portland State at Hawai'i HAW 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- New Mexico at UCLA UNM 35–10 · replay 85% for the winner
- Utah at Wyoming UTAH 31–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Southern at Fresno State FRES 56–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Georgia at Tennessee UGA 44–41 · replay 20% for the winner
- Florida at LSU LSU 20–10 · replay 30% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Florida International FIU 38–28 · replay 31% for the winner
- Clemson at Georgia Tech GT 24–21 · replay 33% for the winner
- Liberty at Bowling Green BGSU 23–13 · replay 33% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Notre Dame TA&M 41–40 · replay 37% for the winner
- Arkansas at Ole Miss MISS 41–35 · replay 37% for the winner