Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Utah at Wyoming, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Utah beat Wyoming 31–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Utah wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Utah was a 94% favorite.
Final
 Utah Utes | 31 |
|---|---|
 Wyoming Cowboys | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Utah about even · −2 Wyoming
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Utah wins 10, Wyoming wins 0.
- 1 UTAH 55 WYO 7
- 2 UTAH 45 WYO 7
- 3 UTAH 41 WYO 7
- 4 UTAH 37 WYO 7
- 5 UTAH 29 WYO 3
- 6 UTAH 30 WYO 7
- 7 UTAH 26 WYO 7
- 8 UTAH 28 WYO 13
- 9 UTAH 28 WYO 17
- 10 UTAH 20 WYO 14
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Utah wins 98% of them, Wyoming 2%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Utah by 25.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Utah by 17+ | 78.4% |
| Utah by 9–16 | 13.1% |
| Utah by 1–8 | 6.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Wyoming by 1–8 | 1.2% |
| Wyoming by 9–16 | 0.2% |
| Wyoming by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Curtis, 43 yds made · 67% expected
- D. Curtis, 45 yds missed · 63% expected
- D. Curtis, 45 yds missed · 62% expected
- D. Curtis, 46 yds blocked · 60% expected
Penalties: Utah 9 for 75 yards, Wyoming 6 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:31 | Ineligible Downfield on Utah, 5 yards | 0% WYO +0.9 pts |
| Q1 9:41 | Pass Interference on Utah, 15 yards | +1% WYO +2.0 pts |
| Q1 6:17 | Delay of Game on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTAH +0.5 pts |
| Q2 9:15 | Holding on Utah, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% WYO +1.9 pts |
| Q2 1:28 | Holding on Utah, 0 yards | 0% WYO 0.0 pts |
| Q2 1:06 | Holding on Utah, 10 yards | 0% WYO +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:57 | Pass Interference on Wyoming, 15 yards | +1% UTAH +0.9 pts |
| Q3 14:20 | Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards | +1% UTAH +1.3 pts |
| Q3 4:07 | Holding on Utah, 10 yards | 0% WYO +0.6 pts |
| Q3 3:30 | Holding on Utah, 10 yards | 0% WYO +0.9 pts |
| Q3 2:40 | Holding on Utah, 10 yards | 0% WYO +1.0 pts |
| Q4 11:02 | Holding on Wyoming, 0 yards | 0% UTAH 0.0 pts |
| Q4 10:20 | Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards | 0% UTAH +0.6 pts |
| Q4 7:52 | Ineligible Downfield on Wyoming, 5 yards | 0% UTAH +0.6 pts |
| Q4 0:06 | Delay of Game on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WYO +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Wyoming’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:25 | Utah was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +1% WYO | UTAH: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 1:41 | D. Curtis missed a 45-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +1% WYO | UTAH: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q1 0:40 | Wyoming converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +2% WYO | WYO: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 7:52 | D. Curtis missed a 45-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before | +2% WYO | UTAH: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 3:19 | Wyoming fumbled and Utah recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% UTAH | WYO: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 0:03 | D. Curtis had a 46-yard field goal blockedKicks · 60% expected for him, 0 of 2 from 45+ before | +2% WYO | UTAH: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 12:29 | Utah converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +2% UTAH | UTAH: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 9:32 | Wyoming converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +1% WYO | WYO: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Utah 100% · Wyoming 0%
- Final margin
- Utah by 25
- Luck in points
- 0.8 for Wyoming
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Utah by 25.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Utah 98% · Wyoming 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Utah · 
Wyoming
More from Week 3 2025
- Middle Tennessee at Nevada MTSU 14–13 · replay 21% for the winner
- Portland State at Hawai'i HAW 23–3 · replay 63% for the winner
- Colorado at Houston HOU 36–20 · replay 74% for the winner
- Iowa State at Arkansas State ISU 24–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- New Mexico at UCLA UNM 35–10 · replay 85% for the winner
- Kansas State at Arizona ARIZ 23–17 · replay 85% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 92% for the winner
- Abilene Christian at TCU TCU 42–21 · replay 93% for the winner
- Texas State at Arizona State ASU 34–15 · replay 98% for the winner
- Air Force at Utah State USU 49–30 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oregon State at Texas Tech TTU 45–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Samford at Baylor BAY 42–7 · replay 100% for the winner