Week 3 2025 · September 12, 2025
Colorado at Houston, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Houston beat Colorado 36–20, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Houston was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:22 left): Houston converted 4th & 4, worth 8 points of win probability to Houston.
Final
 Colorado Buffaloes | 20 |
|---|---|
 Houston Cougars | 36 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Houston lucky · −26 Colorado
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Colorado wins 3, Houston wins 7.
- 1 COLO 21 HOU 7
- 2 COLO 34 HOU 27
- 3 COLO 37 HOU 34
- 4 COLO 13 HOU 16
- 5 COLO 10 HOU 16
- 6 COLO 24 HOU 34
- 7 COLO 7 HOU 20
- 8 COLO 14 HOU 31
- 9 COLO 6 HOU 28
- 10 COLO 3 HOU 33
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Colorado wins 26% of them, Houston 74%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Houston by 16.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Colorado by 17+ | 5.0% |
| Colorado by 9–16 | 8.1% |
| Colorado by 1–8 | 11.5% |
| Level after regulation | 2.3% |
| Houston by 1–8 | 22.4% |
| Houston by 9–16 | 18.2% |
| Houston by 17+ | 32.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Sanchez, 52 yds made · 50% expected
- E. Sanchez, 43 yds made · 67% expected
- E. Sanchez, 47 yds made · 60% expected
- E. Sanchez, 35 yds made · 82% expected
- E. Sanchez, 50 yds missed · 56% expected
- E. Sanchez, 49 yds made · 57% expected
Penalties: Colorado 5 for 40 yards, Houston 4 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:06 | Roughing the Passer on Colorado, 5 yards | +2% HOU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 3:47 | Delay of Game on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% COLO +0.7 pts |
| Q2 11:13 | Pass Interference on Houston, 15 yards | +3% COLO +2.7 pts |
| Q2 1:39 | Holding on Colorado, 10 yards | +2% HOU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:06 | False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% COLO +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:48 | Intentional Grounding on Houston, 10 yards | +4% COLO +1.4 pts |
| Q3 3:12 | Pass Interference on Colorado, 15 yards | +3% HOU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 5:00 | Face Mask on Houston, 15 yards | 0% COLO +1.6 pts |
| Q4 2:49 | Illegal Forward Pass on Colorado, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +1% HOU +2.6 pts |
When it happened
Houston’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:42 | E. Sanchez made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 50% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before | +5% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 5:34 | Colorado was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +4% HOU | COLO: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 11:13 | Pass Interference on Houston, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% COLO | COLO: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 9:49 | Colorado converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +3% COLO | COLO: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 1:45 | E. Sanchez made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before | +4% COLO | HOU: End of half |
| 6 | Q3 9:06 | Houston was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +4% COLO | HOU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 8:22 | Houston converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +8% HOU | HOU: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 7:48 | Intentional Grounding on Houston, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% COLO | COLO: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Colorado 2% · Houston 98%
- Final margin
- Houston by 16
- Luck in points
- 1.9 for Houston
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Houston by 14.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Colorado 26% · Houston 74% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Colorado · 
Houston
More from Week 3 2025
- Iowa State at Arkansas State ISU 24–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Kansas State at Arizona ARIZ 23–17 · replay 85% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 92% for the winner
- Abilene Christian at TCU TCU 42–21 · replay 93% for the winner
- Texas State at Arizona State ASU 34–15 · replay 98% for the winner
- Utah at Wyoming UTAH 31–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Oregon State at Texas Tech TTU 45–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Samford at Baylor BAY 42–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Northwestern State at Cincinnati CIN 70–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Georgia at Tennessee UGA 44–41 · replay 20% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at Nevada MTSU 14–13 · replay 21% for the winner
- Florida at LSU LSU 20–10 · replay 30% for the winner