luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2025 college football season · September 11, 2025–September 13, 2025

Week 3 2025: upsets, and who deserved to win

14 upsets in Week 3 2025. The biggest: New Mexico beat UCLA 35–10 as 16% underdogs, and deserved it. 8 of 70 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: Georgia Tech beat Clemson 24–21 in a game it wins 33% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Week 3 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 9 of 14 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
New Mexico 35–10 @ UCLA 16% 85% Deserved
Stanford 30–20 vs Boston College 18% 71% Deserved
Middle Tennessee 14–13 @ Nevada 27% 21% Lucky
Delaware 44–41 vs UConn 29% 50% Coin flip
West Virginia 31–24 vs Pittsburgh 33% 92% Deserved
Texas A&M 41–40 @ Notre Dame 34% 37% Lucky
Bowling Green 23–13 vs Liberty 35% 33% Lucky
Old Dominion 45–26 @ Virginia Tech 36% 88% Deserved
Utah State 49–30 vs Air Force 40% 100% Deserved
Georgia Tech 24–21 vs Clemson 42% 33% Lucky
Southern Miss 38–22 vs App State 42% 92% Deserved
California 27–14 vs Minnesota 42% 72% Deserved
Vanderbilt 31–7 @ South Carolina 42% 67% Deserved
Arizona 23–17 vs Kansas State 46% 85% Deserved

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 3 luck ranking

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Georgia W 44–41 @ Tennessee 20% +80
2 Middle Tennessee W 14–13 @ Nevada 21% +79
3 LSU W 20–10 vs Florida 30% +70
4 Florida International W 38–28 vs Florida Atlantic 31% +69
5 Georgia Tech W 24–21 vs Clemson 33% +67
6 Bowling Green W 23–13 vs Liberty 33% +67
7 Texas A&M W 41–40 @ Notre Dame 37% +63
8 Ole Miss W 41–35 vs Arkansas 37% +63
9 NC State W 34–24 @ Wake Forest 40% +60
10 SMU W 28–10 @ Missouri State 46% +54
11 Delaware W 44–41 vs UConn 50% +50
12 Georgia Southern W 41–34 vs Jacksonville State 56% +44
13 Hawai'i W 23–3 vs Portland State 63% +37
14 Vanderbilt W 31–7 @ South Carolina 67% +33
15 UAB W 31–28 vs Akron 69% +31
16 Stanford W 30–20 vs Boston College 71% +29
17 California W 27–14 vs Minnesota 72% +28
18 Houston W 36–20 vs Colorado 74% +26
19 USC W 33–17 @ Purdue 74% +26
20 Tulane W 34–27 vs Duke 75% +25
21 Buffalo W 31–28 @ Kent State 80% +20
22 Iowa State W 24–16 @ Arkansas State 82% +18
23 Navy W 42–23 @ Tulsa 84% +16
24 New Mexico W 35–10 @ UCLA 85% +15
25 Arizona W 23–17 vs Kansas State 85% +15
26 Charlotte W 42–35 vs Monmouth 86% +14
27 Old Dominion W 45–26 @ Virginia Tech 88% +12
28 Kennesaw State W 27–13 vs Merrimack 88% +12
29 Texas W 27–10 vs UTEP 89% +11
30 Kentucky W 48–23 vs Eastern Michigan 90% +10
31 Auburn W 31–15 vs South Alabama 91% +9
32 Southern Miss W 38–22 vs App State 92% +8
33 West Virginia W 31–24 vs Pittsburgh 92% +8
34 TCU W 42–21 vs Abilene Christian 93% +7
35 Louisiana Tech W 49–14 vs New Mexico State 94% +6
36 Ball State W 34–29 vs New Hampshire 96% +4
37 Alabama W 38–14 vs Wisconsin 96% +4
38 Michigan State W 41–24 vs Youngstown State 96% +4
39 East Carolina W 38–0 @ Coastal Carolina 96% +4
40 Rice W 38–17 vs Prairie View A&M 96% +4
41 Georgia State W 37–21 vs Murray State 98% +2
42 UTSA W 48–20 vs Incarnate Word 98% +2
43 Arizona State W 34–15 vs Texas State 98% +2
44 Utah W 31–6 @ Wyoming 98% +2
45 Rutgers W 60–10 vs Norfolk State 98% +2
46 Oregon W 34–14 @ Northwestern 98% +2
47 Iowa W 47–7 vs Massachusetts 99% +1
48 Memphis W 28–7 @ Troy 99% +1
49 North Carolina W 41–6 vs Richmond 99% +1
50 Virginia W 55–16 vs William & Mary 99% +1
51 Illinois W 38–0 vs Western Michigan 99% +1
52 North Texas W 59–10 vs Washington State 99% +1
53 Utah State W 49–30 vs Air Force 100% 0
54 Maryland W 44–17 vs Towson 100% 0
55 Missouri W 52–10 vs Louisiana 100% 0
56 Texas Tech W 45–14 vs Oregon State 100% 0
57 Baylor W 42–7 vs Samford 100% 0
58 Oklahoma W 42–3 @ Temple 100% 0
59 Marshall W 38–7 vs Eastern Kentucky 100% 0
60 Penn State W 52–6 vs Villanova 100% 0
61 Indiana W 73–0 vs Indiana State 100% 0
62 Syracuse W 66–24 vs Colgate 100% 0
63 Nebraska W 59–7 vs Houston Christian 100% 0
64 Michigan W 63–3 vs Central Michigan 100% 0
65 Cincinnati W 70–0 vs Northwestern State 100% 0
66 Toledo W 60–0 vs Morgan State 100% 0
67 Miami W 49–12 vs South Florida 100% 0
68 Mississippi State W 63–0 vs Alcorn State 100% 0
69 Ohio State W 37–9 vs Ohio 100% 0
70 Fresno State W 56–7 vs Southern 100% 0
71 Central Michigan L 3–63 @ Michigan 0% 0
72 South Florida L 12–49 @ Miami 0% 0
73 Ohio L 9–37 @ Ohio State 0% 0
74 Temple L 3–42 vs Oklahoma 0% 0
75 Oregon State L 14–45 @ Texas Tech 0% 0
76 Louisiana L 10–52 @ Missouri 0% 0
77 Air Force L 30–49 @ Utah State 0% 0
78 Washington State L 10–59 @ North Texas 1% −1
79 Western Michigan L 0–38 @ Illinois 1% −1
80 Troy L 7–28 vs Memphis 1% −1
81 Massachusetts L 7–47 @ Iowa 1% −1
82 Northwestern L 14–34 vs Oregon 2% −2
83 Wyoming L 6–31 vs Utah 2% −2
84 Texas State L 15–34 @ Arizona State 2% −2
85 Coastal Carolina L 0–38 vs East Carolina 4% −4
86 Wisconsin L 14–38 @ Alabama 4% −4
87 New Mexico State L 14–49 @ Louisiana Tech 6% −6
88 Pittsburgh L 24–31 @ West Virginia 8% −8
89 App State L 22–38 @ Southern Miss 8% −8
90 South Alabama L 15–31 @ Auburn 9% −9
91 Eastern Michigan L 23–48 @ Kentucky 10% −10
92 UTEP L 10–27 @ Texas 11% −11
93 Virginia Tech L 26–45 vs Old Dominion 12% −12
94 Kansas State L 17–23 @ Arizona 15% −15
95 UCLA L 10–35 vs New Mexico 15% −15
96 Tulsa L 23–42 vs Navy 16% −16
97 Arkansas State L 16–24 vs Iowa State 18% −18
98 Kent State L 28–31 vs Buffalo 20% −20
99 Duke L 27–34 @ Tulane 25% −25
100 Purdue L 17–33 vs USC 26% −26
101 Colorado L 20–36 @ Houston 26% −26
102 Minnesota L 14–27 @ California 28% −28
103 Boston College L 20–30 @ Stanford 29% −29
104 Akron L 28–31 @ UAB 31% −31
105 South Carolina L 7–31 vs Vanderbilt 33% −33
106 Jacksonville State L 34–41 @ Georgia Southern 44% −44
107 UConn L 41–44 @ Delaware 50% −50
108 Missouri State L 10–28 vs SMU 54% −54
109 Wake Forest L 24–34 vs NC State 60% −60
110 Arkansas L 35–41 @ Ole Miss 63% −63
111 Notre Dame L 40–41 vs Texas A&M 63% −63
112 Liberty L 13–23 @ Bowling Green 67% −67
113 Clemson L 21–24 @ Georgia Tech 67% −67
114 Florida Atlantic L 28–38 @ Florida International 69% −69
115 Florida L 10–20 @ LSU 70% −70
116 Nevada L 13–14 vs Middle Tennessee 79% −79
117 Tennessee L 41–44 vs Georgia 80% −80