Week 3 2025 · September 13, 2025
Central Michigan at Michigan, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
Michigan beat Central Michigan 63–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Michigan wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Michigan was a 96% favorite.
Final
 Central Michigan Chippewas | 3 |
|---|---|
 Michigan Wolverines | 63 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Michigan about even · 0 Central Michigan
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Central Michigan wins 0, Michigan wins 10.
- 1 CMU 0 MICH 42
- 2 CMU 0 MICH 49
- 3 CMU 0 MICH 52
- 4 CMU 0 MICH 56
- 5 CMU 3 MICH 63
- 6 CMU 0 MICH 62
- 7 CMU 0 MICH 65
- 8 CMU 0 MICH 69
- 9 CMU 0 MICH 73
- 10 CMU 0 MICH 80
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Central Michigan wins 0% of them, Michigan 100%. The line is what actually happened: Michigan by 60.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Central Michigan by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Central Michigan by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Central Michigan by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Michigan by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Michigan by 9–16 | 2.0% |
| Michigan by 17+ | 97.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Zvada, 47 yds missed · 65% expected
- C. Graham, 22 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: Central Michigan 1 for 6 yards, Michigan 4 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:00 | Pass Interference on Central Michigan, 6 yards | 0% MICH +1.2 pts |
| Q1 3:58 | Holding on Michigan, 10 yards | 0% CMU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 3:14 | Face Mask on Michigan, 10 yards | 0% CMU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 12:46 | Holding on Michigan, 10 yards | 0% CMU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 4:13 | Unnecessary Roughness on Michigan, 15 yards | 0% CMU +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Michigan’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:08 | Michigan converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +0% MICH | MICH: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 11:24 | Michigan converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% MICH | MICH: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 11:00 | Pass Interference on Central Michigan, 6 yardsJudgment calls | +0% MICH | MICH: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 9:14 | Michigan converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +0% MICH | MICH: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 7:21 | Michigan converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +0% MICH | MICH: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q1 3:13 | Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +0% CMU | MICH: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q1 3:08 | D. Zvada missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 10 of 10 from 45+ before | +0% CMU | MICH: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q1 1:30 | Central Michigan converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +0% CMU | CMU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Central Michigan 0% · Michigan 100%
- Final margin
- Michigan by 60
- Luck in points
- 4.6 for Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Michigan by 55.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Central Michigan 0% · Michigan 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Central Michigan · 
Michigan
More from Week 3 2025
- Liberty at Bowling Green BGSU 23–13 · replay 33% for the winner
- Akron at UAB UAB 31–28 · replay 69% for the winner
- Minnesota at California CAL 27–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- USC at Purdue USC 33–17 · replay 74% for the winner
- Buffalo at Kent State BUF 31–28 · replay 80% for the winner
- New Mexico at UCLA UNM 35–10 · replay 85% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Kentucky UK 48–23 · replay 90% for the winner
- New Hampshire at Ball State BALL 34–29 · replay 96% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Alabama ALA 38–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- Youngstown State at Michigan State MSU 41–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- Norfolk State at Rutgers RUTG 60–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Oregon at Northwestern ORE 34–14 · replay 98% for the winner