MAC · 2026 season, in progress
Central Michigan Chippewas: luck and expected wins
Central Michigan is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 52nd-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.
2026, game by game
How often Central Michigan wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ New Mexico | L 7–38 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 2 | vs Colgate | W 13–10 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 3 | vs Wyoming | W 24–10 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 4 | @ Miami | L 3–52 | 0% | 0 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Central Michigan win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | vs Akron |  Central Michigan by 6.2 | 65% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | at Ohio |  Ohio by 11.2 | 24% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | vs Western Michigan |  Western Michigan by 9.9 | 27% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | vs Miami (OH) |  Miami (OH) by 5.5 | 37% |
| Week 10 · Nov 4 | vs Eastern Michigan | Central Michigan by 3.4 | 58% |
| Week 11 · Nov 11 | vs Sacramento State | Central Michigan by 12.4 | 77% |
| Week 12 · Nov 18 | at Buffalo | Central Michigan by 2.7 | 56% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | at Ball State | Central Michigan by 2.4 | 56% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Central Michigan’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.02 | −6.7 |
| Kicks | −0.10 | −7.5 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.12 | −10.1 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Central Michigan takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 13 | @ Kent State | W 28–16 | 65% | +35 |
| 2025 Week 1 | @ San José State | W 16–14 | 65% | +35 |
| 2025 Week 8 | @ Bowling Green | W 27–6 | 70% | +30 |
| 2026 Week 2 | vs Colgate | W 13–10 | 77% | +23 |
| 2025 Week 12 | vs Buffalo | W 38–19 | 87% | +13 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Central Michigan would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 10 | @ Western Michigan | L 21–24 | 52% | −52 |
| 2025 Week 14 | vs Toledo | L 3–21 | 30% | −30 |
| 2025 Week 6 | @ Akron | L 22–28 | 24% | −24 |
| 2025 GameAbove Sports Bowl | vs Northwestern | L 7–34 | 11% | −11 |
| 2026 Week 1 | @ New Mexico | L 7–38 | 1% | −1 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7–5 | 6.8 | +0.2 | 1–2 | 0–1 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ San José State | W 16–14 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 2 | @ Pittsburgh | L 17–45 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 3 | @ Michigan | L 3–63 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 4 | vs Wagner | W 49–10 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 5 | vs Eastern Michigan | W 24–13 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 6 | @ Akron | L 22–28 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 8 | @ Bowling Green | W 27–6 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 9 | vs Massachusetts | W 38–13 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 10 | @ Western Michigan | L 21–24 | 52% | −52 |
| Week 12 | vs Buffalo | W 38–19 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 13 | @ Kent State | W 28–16 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 14 | vs Toledo | L 3–21 | 30% | −30 |
| GameAbove Sports Bowl | vs Northwestern | L 7–34 | 11% | −11 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- MAC teams by luck
- MAC:
Akron, 
Ball State, 
Bowling Green, 
Buffalo, 
Eastern Michigan, 
Kent State, 
Massachusetts, Miami (OH), Ohio, 
Sacramento State, 
Toledo, Western Michigan
How many wins does Central Michigan have in 2026?
2–2 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 1.7 wins.
Was Central Michigan lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: +0.3 wins of luck, the 52nd-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Central Michigan’s luckiest season?
2026: 2–2 from play worth 1.7 wins, +0.3 of luck. The unluckiest: 2025, 7–5 from play worth 6.8 (+0.2).