luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2026 college football season · September 24, 2026–September 26, 2026

Week 4 2026: upsets, and who deserved to win

10 upsets in Week 4 2026. The biggest: Minnesota beat Washington 27–24 as 21% underdogs, a coin flip on the day. 4 of 71 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: Army beat Temple 21–17 in a game it wins 9% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Week 4 2026 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 5 of 10 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Minnesota 27–24 @ Washington 21% 40% Coin flip
Wake Forest 30–27 @ Louisville 23% 38% Lucky
Wisconsin 24–20 @ Penn State 27% 79% Deserved
UAB 24–20 vs Navy 34% 32% Lucky
Cincinnati 31–26 vs Kansas State 35% 83% Deserved
Iowa 20–19 @ Michigan 39% 13% Lucky
UCF 21–13 vs TCU 41% 77% Deserved
Stanford 34–27 vs Georgia Tech 42% 59% Coin flip
Wyoming 27–10 vs Hawai'i 44% 83% Deserved
Oklahoma State 41–24 @ West Virginia 46% 91% Deserved

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 4 luck ranking

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Army W 21–17 @ Temple 9% +91
2 Iowa W 20–19 @ Michigan 13% +87
3 UAB W 24–20 vs Navy 32% +68
4 Wake Forest W 30–27 @ Louisville 38% +62
5 Minnesota W 27–24 @ Washington 40% +60
6 Air Force W 36–33 @ Nevada 46% +54
7 Nebraska W 31–13 @ Michigan State 48% +52
8 NC State W 41–31 vs App State 53% +47
9 Oregon W 41–27 @ USC 53% +47
10 Tulane W 24–21 vs Southern Miss 55% +45
11 Arkansas State W 17–14 vs Kennesaw State 56% +44
12 Stanford W 34–27 vs Georgia Tech 59% +41
13 Fresno State W 38–24 vs Rice 59% +41
14 Buffalo W 31–28 vs Robert Morris 63% +37
15 Auburn W 21–15 vs Vanderbilt 67% +33
16 South Florida W 14–6 @ Bowling Green 68% +32
17 Florida Atlantic W 45–17 @ UL Monroe 70% +30
18 UNLV W 38–10 @ Akron 71% +29
19 UCLA W 54–3 @ Maryland 72% +28
20 Florida International W 20–3 vs Long Island University 72% +28
21 Clemson W 24–10 @ California 73% +27
22 Arizona W 34–24 @ Washington State 73% +27
23 Utah State W 21–10 vs Troy 75% +25
24 UCF W 21–13 vs TCU 77% +23
25 Texas W 20–17 @ Tennessee 79% +21
26 Wisconsin W 24–20 @ Penn State 79% +21
27 Georgia State W 35–14 vs Northern Illinois 80% +20
28 Marshall W 36–35 vs Gardner-Webb 81% +19
29 Baylor W 23–13 vs Colorado 81% +19
30 Virginia Tech W 21–14 @ Boston College 81% +19
31 Miami (OH) W 24–21 vs UConn 83% +17
32 Cincinnati W 31–26 vs Kansas State 83% +17
33 Wyoming W 27–10 vs Hawai'i 83% +17
34 Kent State W 26–13 vs Ball State 90% +10
35 Louisiana W 34–7 @ Charlotte 90% +10
36 Indiana W 29–23 vs Northwestern 91% +9
37 Oklahoma State W 41–24 @ West Virginia 91% +9
38 Florida W 52–28 vs Ole Miss 93% +7
39 James Madison W 46–20 @ Old Dominion 93% +7
40 Massachusetts W 35–6 @ Sacramento State 94% +6
41 New Mexico W 42–18 @ New Mexico State 95% +6
42 Mississippi State W 31–24 vs Missouri 95% +5
43 Alabama W 49–18 vs South Carolina 96% +4
44 UTSA W 59–45 vs Colorado State 96% +4
45 Liberty W 34–17 @ Coastal Carolina 96% +4
46 Utah W 31–17 @ Iowa State 96% +4
47 Georgia W 41–13 vs Oklahoma 96% +4
48 Ohio State W 42–19 vs Illinois 97% +3
49 Boise State W 32–7 @ Western Michigan 97% +3
50 East Carolina W 42–9 vs North Carolina Central 98% +2
51 Jacksonville State W 23–13 vs Middle Tennessee 98% +2
52 Houston W 42–28 @ Georgia Southern 98% +2
53 Eastern Michigan W 29–3 vs Lindenwood 98% +2
54 Toledo W 41–16 vs San Diego State 99% +1
55 SMU W 34–24 vs Missouri State 99% +1
56 Arkansas W 34–6 vs Tulsa 99% +1
57 Texas State W 63–10 vs Incarnate Word 99% +1
58 Western Kentucky W 52–7 vs Mercyhurst 100% 0
59 Oregon State W 33–7 @ UTEP 100% 0
60 Texas Tech W 49–14 vs Sam Houston 100% 0
61 North Texas W 63–14 vs Houston Christian 100% 0
62 Notre Dame W 49–10 @ Purdue 100% 0
63 Kentucky W 45–21 vs South Alabama 100% 0
64 Rutgers W 58–7 vs Howard 100% 0
65 Pittsburgh W 59–0 vs Bucknell 100% 0
66 Florida State W 34–7 vs Central Arkansas 100% 0
67 Duke W 62–7 vs William & Mary 100% 0
68 Ohio W 35–7 vs Stonehill 100% 0
69 Virginia W 42–3 vs Delaware 100% 0
70 Miami W 52–3 vs Central Michigan 100% 0
71 LSU W 35–6 vs Texas A&M 100% 0
72 Delaware L 3–42 @ Virginia 0% 0
73 Central Michigan L 3–52 @ Miami 0% 0
74 Texas A&M L 6–35 @ LSU 0% 0
75 South Alabama L 21–45 @ Kentucky 0% 0
76 Purdue L 10–49 vs Notre Dame 0% 0
77 Sam Houston L 14–49 @ Texas Tech 0% 0
78 UTEP L 7–33 vs Oregon State 0% 0
79 Tulsa L 6–34 @ Arkansas 1% −1
80 Missouri State L 24–34 @ SMU 1% −1
81 San Diego State L 16–41 @ Toledo 1% −1
82 Georgia Southern L 28–42 vs Houston 2% −2
83 Middle Tennessee L 13–23 @ Jacksonville State 2% −2
84 Western Michigan L 7–32 vs Boise State 3% −3
85 Illinois L 19–42 @ Ohio State 3% −3
86 Oklahoma L 13–41 @ Georgia 4% −4
87 Iowa State L 17–31 vs Utah 4% −4
88 Coastal Carolina L 17–34 vs Liberty 4% −4
89 Colorado State L 45–59 @ UTSA 4% −4
90 South Carolina L 18–49 @ Alabama 4% −4
91 Missouri L 24–31 @ Mississippi State 5% −5
92 New Mexico State L 18–42 vs New Mexico 6% −6
93 Sacramento State L 6–35 vs Massachusetts 6% −6
94 Old Dominion L 20–46 vs James Madison 7% −7
95 Ole Miss L 28–52 @ Florida 7% −7
96 West Virginia L 24–41 vs Oklahoma State 9% −9
97 Northwestern L 23–29 @ Indiana 9% −9
98 Charlotte L 7–34 vs Louisiana 10% −10
99 Ball State L 13–26 @ Kent State 10% −10
100 Hawai'i L 10–27 @ Wyoming 17% −17
101 Kansas State L 26–31 @ Cincinnati 17% −17
102 UConn L 21–24 @ Miami (OH) 17% −17
103 Boston College L 14–21 vs Virginia Tech 19% −19
104 Colorado L 13–23 @ Baylor 19% −19
105 Northern Illinois L 14–35 @ Georgia State 20% −20
106 Penn State L 20–24 vs Wisconsin 21% −21
107 Tennessee L 17–20 vs Texas 21% −21
108 TCU L 13–21 @ UCF 23% −23
109 Troy L 10–21 @ Utah State 25% −25
110 Washington State L 24–34 vs Arizona 27% −27
111 California L 10–24 vs Clemson 27% −27
112 Maryland L 3–54 vs UCLA 28% −28
113 Akron L 10–38 vs UNLV 29% −29
114 UL Monroe L 17–45 vs Florida Atlantic 30% −30
115 Bowling Green L 6–14 vs South Florida 32% −32
116 Vanderbilt L 15–21 @ Auburn 33% −33
117 Rice L 24–38 @ Fresno State 41% −41
118 Georgia Tech L 27–34 @ Stanford 41% −41
119 Kennesaw State L 14–17 @ Arkansas State 44% −44
120 Southern Miss L 21–24 @ Tulane 45% −45
121 USC L 27–41 vs Oregon 47% −47
122 App State L 31–41 @ NC State 47% −47
123 Michigan State L 13–31 vs Nebraska 52% −52
124 Nevada L 33–36 vs Air Force 54% −54
125 Washington L 24–27 vs Minnesota 60% −60
126 Louisville L 27–30 vs Wake Forest 62% −62
127 Navy L 20–24 @ UAB 68% −68
128 Michigan L 19–20 vs Iowa 87% −87
129 Temple L 17–21 vs Army 91% −91