Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Florida Atlantic beat UL Monroe 45–17, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Florida Atlantic was a 77% favorite.
Final
 Florida Atlantic Owls | 45 |
|---|---|
 UL Monroe Warhawks | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +30 Florida Atlantic lucky · −30 UL Monroe
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Florida Atlantic wins 7, UL Monroe wins 3.
- 1 FAU 48 ULM 13
- 2 FAU 31 ULM 7
- 3 FAU 35 ULM 17
- 4 FAU 30 ULM 16
- 5 FAU 28 ULM 17
- 6 FAU 30 ULM 24
- 7 FAU 41 ULM 38
- 8 FAU 20 ULM 23
- 9 FAU 21 ULM 29
- 10 FAU 27 ULM 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Florida Atlantic wins 70% of them, UL Monroe 30%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Florida Atlantic by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic by 17+ | 30.4% |
| Florida Atlantic by 9–16 | 16.6% |
| Florida Atlantic by 1–8 | 20.7% |
| Level after regulation | 5.3% |
| UL Monroe by 1–8 | 14.2% |
| UL Monroe by 9–16 | 7.7% |
| UL Monroe by 17+ | 5.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Murray, 39 yds made · 75% expected
- A. Murray, 48 yds missed · 58% expected
- C. Rogers, 29 yds made · 87% expected
Penalties: Florida Atlantic 7 for 52 yards, UL Monroe 5 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:12 | False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ULM +0.7 pts |
| Q1 8:22 | False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% FAU +4.3 pts |
| Q1 8:22 | Illegal Substitution on UL Monroe, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% ULM +0.4 pts |
| Q1 3:17 | Holding on Florida Atlantic, 7 yards | +1% ULM +0.4 pts |
| Q1 0:55 | False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ULM +1.0 pts |
| Q2 14:59 | Holding on Florida Atlantic, 10 yards | +2% ULM +1.3 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | False Start on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FAU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 3:09 | Face Mask on Florida Atlantic, 15 yards | 0% ULM +1.6 pts |
| Q3 1:29 | False Start on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FAU +2.0 pts |
| Q4 11:22 | False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ULM +0.8 pts |
| Q4 7:29 | Illegal Formation on UL Monroe, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% FAU +1.7 pts |
| Q4 6:20 | Personal Foul on UL Monroe, 15 yards | 0% FAU +0.9 pts |
When it happened
UL Monroe’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:04 | UL Monroe was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +2% FAU | ULM: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 8:22 | False Start on Florida Atlantic, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsIllegal Substitution on UL Monroe, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +6% FAU | ULM: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 6:56 | Florida Atlantic converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +3% FAU | FAU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 14:59 | Holding on Florida Atlantic, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +2% ULM | ULM: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 11:53 | Return touchdown by Florida AtlanticSpecial teams | +5% FAU | FAU: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 10:42 | Florida Atlantic was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +3% ULM | FAU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 7:19 | Florida Atlantic converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +2% FAU | FAU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 3:58 | UL Monroe converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +2% ULM | ULM: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Florida Atlantic 96% · UL Monroe 4%
- Final margin
- Florida Atlantic by 28
- Luck in points
- 12.8 for Florida Atlantic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Florida Atlantic by 15.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Florida Atlantic 70% · UL Monroe 30% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Florida Atlantic · 
UL Monroe
More from Week 4 2026
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Navy at UAB UAB 24–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- App State at NC State NCSU 41–31 · replay 53% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Tulane TULN 24–21 · replay 55% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Arkansas State ARST 17–14 · replay 56% for the winner
- Rice at Fresno State FRES 38–24 · replay 59% for the winner
- South Florida at Bowling Green USF 14–6 · replay 68% for the winner
- Troy at Utah State USU 21–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Georgia State GAST 35–14 · replay 80% for the winner
- Gardner-Webb at Marshall MRSH 36–35 · replay 81% for the winner
- Louisiana at Charlotte UL 34–7 · replay 90% for the winner
- James Madison at Old Dominion JMU 46–20 · replay 93% for the winner