Week 4 2026 · September 25, 2026
Army at Temple, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Army beat Temple 21–17, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Temple wins 9 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 29 points of win probability to Army.
Army won on an off day: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Temple it would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%. The numbers
Before kickoff Army was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:29 left): Temple was stopped on 4th & 2, worth 22 points of win probability to Army.
Final
 Army Black Knights | 21 |
|---|---|
 Temple Owls | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +91 Army very lucky · −91 Temple
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Army wins 1, Temple wins 9.
- 1 ARMY 14 TEM 7
- 2 ARMY 20 TEM 24
- 3 ARMY 14 TEM 21
- 4 ARMY 7 TEM 17
- 5 ARMY 14 TEM 28
- 6 ARMY 14 TEM 30
- 7 ARMY 17 TEM 35
- 8 ARMY 0 TEM 23
- 9 ARMY 0 TEM 27
- 10 ARMY 7 TEM 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Army won on an off day
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Temple it would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
43 points apart for Army: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Army offenseEPA per play gained | +0.23 | +0.08 | better by 0.15 |
| Army defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.30 | +0.11 | worse by 0.18 |
| Temple offenseEPA per play gained | +0.30 | +0.13 | better by 0.16 |
| Temple defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.23 | +0.17 | worse by 0.06 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Army wins 9% of them, Temple 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Army by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Army by 17+ | 0.9% |
| Army by 9–16 | 2.5% |
| Army by 1–8 | 6.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| Temple by 1–8 | 19.3% |
| Temple by 9–16 | 19.2% |
| Temple by 17+ | 50.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Hardin, 42 yds missed · 69% expected
- C. Hardin, 29 yds made · 87% expected
Penalties: Army 4 for 40 yards, Temple 6 for 37 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:28 | False Start on Temple, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARMY +0.7 pts |
| Q1 9:33 | Delay of Game on Temple, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARMY +1.2 pts |
| Q2 10:42 | Holding on Temple, 10 yards | +4% ARMY +1.5 pts |
| Q2 10:15 | False Start on Temple, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARMY +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:00 | Personal Foul on Army, 15 yards | +3% TEM +1.3 pts |
| Q2 4:51 | Block Below the Waist on Temple, 2 yards | 0% ARMY +0.1 pts |
| Q2 2:31 | Holding on Army, 10 yards | +3% TEM +1.3 pts |
| Q3 6:43 | Encroachment on Army, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEM +1.1 pts |
| Q4 12:02 | Holding on Army, 10 yards | +13% TEM +3.0 pts |
| Q4 4:56 | Holding on Temple, 10 yards | +9% ARMY +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Temple’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 8:20 | C. Hardin missed a 42-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him | +6% ARMY | TEM: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 5:23 | Army converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +9% ARMY | ARMY: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 2:10 | Army converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +6% ARMY | ARMY: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 12:02 | Holding on Army, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +13% TEM | TEM: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 7:42 | Temple was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +6% ARMY | TEM: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 4:56 | Holding on Temple, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +9% ARMY | ARMY: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:31 | Temple was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +6% ARMY | TEM: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:29 | Temple was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +22% ARMY | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Army 5% · Temple 95%
- Final margin
- Army by 4
- Luck in points
- 13.5 for Army
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Temple by 9.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Army 9% · Temple 91% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Army · 
Temple
More from Week 4 2026
- Navy at UAB UAB 24–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Tulane TULN 24–21 · replay 55% for the winner
- Rice at Fresno State FRES 38–24 · replay 59% for the winner
- South Florida at Bowling Green USF 14–6 · replay 68% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe FAU 45–17 · replay 70% for the winner
- Louisiana at Charlotte UL 34–7 · replay 90% for the winner
- Colorado State at UTSA UTSA 59–45 · replay 96% for the winner
- North Carolina Central at East Carolina ECU 42–9 · replay 98% for the winner
- Tulsa at Arkansas ARK 34–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Houston Christian at North Texas UNT 63–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Iowa at Michigan IOWA 20–19 · replay 13% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Louisville WAKE 30–27 · replay 38% for the winner