Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Houston Christian at North Texas, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
North Texas beat Houston Christian 63–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, North Texas wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff North Texas was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Houston Christian Huskies | 14 |
|---|---|
 North Texas Mean Green | 63 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 North Texas about even · 0 Houston Christian
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Houston Christian wins 0, North Texas wins 10.
- 1 HCU 14 UNT 28
- 2 HCU 21 UNT 45
- 3 HCU 15 UNT 45
- 4 HCU 21 UNT 56
- 5 HCU 7 UNT 45
- 6 HCU 21 UNT 63
- 7 HCU 13 UNT 59
- 8 HCU 28 UNT 77
- 9 HCU 7 UNT 62
- 10 HCU 7 UNT 70
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Houston Christian wins 0% of them, North Texas 100%. The line is what actually happened: North Texas by 49.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Houston Christian by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Houston Christian by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Houston Christian by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| North Texas by 1–8 | 0.9% |
| North Texas by 9–16 | 2.4% |
| North Texas by 17+ | 96.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. De Freitas, 39 yds missed · 75% expected
- D. De Freitas, 53 yds missed · 49% expected
Penalties: Houston Christian 5 for 45 yards, North Texas 8 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:29 | Face Mask on Houston Christian, 15 yards | 0% UNT +2.5 pts |
| Q1 3:24 | Holding on North Texas, 6 yards | 0% HCU +0.4 pts |
| Q1 3:21 | Pass Interference on Houston Christian, 15 yards | 0% UNT +0.9 pts |
| Q2 14:30 | False Start on Houston Christian, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNT +0.7 pts |
| Q2 14:07 | Face Mask on North Texas, 15 yards | 0% HCU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 12:24 | Offside on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HCU +2.6 pts |
| Q2 7:30 | False Start on Houston Christian, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HCU +0.2 pts |
| Q2 3:35 | Delay of Game on Houston Christian, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNT +0.8 pts |
| Q2 2:53 | Offside on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HCU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 10:09 | Holding on North Texas, 9 yards | 0% HCU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 4:38 | False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HCU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 2:39 | False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HCU +0.1 pts |
| Q4 13:12 | False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HCU +0.5 pts |
When it happened
North Texas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:53 | North Texas converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +0% UNT | UNT: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 11:34 | Houston Christian converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +0% HCU | HCU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 10:29 | Face Mask on Houston Christian, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% UNT | UNT: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 14:07 | Face Mask on North Texas, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% HCU | HCU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 12:39 | Houston Christian was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +0% UNT | HCU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 12:24 | Offside on North Texas, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% HCU | HCU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 7:02 | North Texas fumbled and Houston Christian recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% HCU | UNT: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 2:49 | Houston Christian was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +0% UNT | HCU: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Houston Christian 0% · North Texas 100%
- Final margin
- North Texas by 49
- Luck in points
- 1.1 for North Texas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- North Texas by 47.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Houston Christian 0% · North Texas 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Houston Christian · 
North Texas
More from Week 4 2026
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Navy at UAB UAB 24–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Tulane TULN 24–21 · replay 55% for the winner
- Rice at Fresno State FRES 38–24 · replay 59% for the winner
- South Florida at Bowling Green USF 14–6 · replay 68% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe FAU 45–17 · replay 70% for the winner
- Louisiana at Charlotte UL 34–7 · replay 90% for the winner
- Colorado State at UTSA UTSA 59–45 · replay 96% for the winner
- North Carolina Central at East Carolina ECU 42–9 · replay 98% for the winner
- Tulsa at Arkansas ARK 34–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Incarnate Word at Texas State TXST 63–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Iowa at Michigan IOWA 20–19 · replay 13% for the winner