Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
South Florida at Bowling Green, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
South Florida beat Bowling Green 14–6, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff South Florida was an 87% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:57 left): Bowling Green was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 13 points of win probability to South Florida.
Final
 South Florida Bulls | 14 |
|---|---|
 Bowling Green Falcons | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 South Florida lucky · −32 Bowling Green
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. South Florida wins 7, Bowling Green wins 3.
- 1 USF 28 BGSU 2
- 2 USF 37 BGSU 16
- 3 USF 27 BGSU 10
- 4 USF 20 BGSU 7
- 5 USF 16 BGSU 7
- 6 USF 17 BGSU 12
- 7 USF 10 BGSU 7
- 8 USF 7 BGSU 10
- 9 USF 14 BGSU 23
- 10 USF 10 BGSU 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
South Florida wins 68% of them, Bowling Green 32%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: South Florida by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| South Florida by 17+ | 23.0% |
| South Florida by 9–16 | 20.9% |
| South Florida by 1–8 | 22.7% |
| Level after regulation | 5.0% |
| Bowling Green by 1–8 | 16.6% |
| Bowling Green by 9–16 | 7.9% |
| Bowling Green by 17+ | 3.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Kenner, 43 yds made · 67% expected
- T. Kenner, 28 yds made · 89% expected
- N. Gramatica, 41 yds missed · 73% expected
Penalties: South Florida 6 for 35 yards, Bowling Green 7 for 66 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:51 | Offside on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USF +0.6 pts |
| Q1 2:48 | False Start on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BGSU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 2:26 | Illegal Motion on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BGSU +0.2 pts |
| Q2 14:51 | Illegal Touching on South Florida, 6 yards | +2% BGSU +1.0 pts |
| Q2 0:31 | Personal Foul on Bowling Green, 13 yards | +3% USF +1.5 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Bowling Green, 15 yards | +2% USF +0.9 pts |
| Q3 14:29 | Holding on South Florida, 10 yards | +4% BGSU +1.4 pts |
| Q3 9:34 | Offside on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% BGSU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 7:50 | Holding on Bowling Green, 10 yards | +4% USF +1.4 pts |
| Q3 5:20 | False Start on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% USF +0.8 pts |
| Q3 4:00 | Holding on South Florida, 4 yards | +4% BGSU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 6:58 | Pass Interference on Bowling Green, 5 yards | +1% USF +0.3 pts |
| Q4 6:42 | Roughing the Passer on Bowling Green, 13 yards | +5% USF +1.5 pts |
When it happened
Bowling Green’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:45 | South Florida fumbled and Bowling Green recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% BGSU | USF: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 13:03 | South Florida was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedSouth Florida was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +6% BGSU | USF: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q2 11:56 | Bowling Green converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +4% BGSU | BGSU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 0:10 | South Florida converted 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 15% expectedN. Gramatica missed a 41-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him | +5% USF | USF: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q3 7:50 | Holding on Bowling Green, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% USF | USF: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 6:31 | Bowling Green converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +6% BGSU | BGSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 14:57 | Bowling Green was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +13% USF | BGSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 6:42 | Roughing the Passer on Bowling Green, 13 yardsJudgment calls | +5% USF | USF: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
South Florida 100% · Bowling Green 0%
- Final margin
- South Florida by 8
- Luck in points
- 7.4 for Bowling Green
- Luck-adjusted margin
- South Florida by 15.4
- Replay with same day's form
- South Florida 68% · Bowling Green 32% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
South Florida · 
Bowling Green
More from Week 4 2026
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Navy at UAB UAB 24–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Tulane TULN 24–21 · replay 55% for the winner
- Rice at Fresno State FRES 38–24 · replay 59% for the winner
- Robert Morris at Buffalo BUF 31–28 · replay 63% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe FAU 45–17 · replay 70% for the winner
- UNLV at Akron UNLV 38–10 · replay 71% for the winner
- UConn at Miami (OH) M-OH 24–21 · replay 83% for the winner
- Ball State at Kent State KENT 26–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Louisiana at Charlotte UL 34–7 · replay 90% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Sacramento State MASS 35–6 · replay 94% for the winner
- Colorado State at UTSA UTSA 59–45 · replay 96% for the winner