luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026

UConn at Miami (OH), Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

Miami (OH) beat UConn 24–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Miami (OH) wins 8 of 10. UConn had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 18 points of win probability to UConn.

Before kickoff Miami (OH) was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:39 left): Holding on UConn, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 14 points of win probability to Miami (OH).

Final

UConn Huskies 21
Miami (OH) RedHawks 24

September 26, 2026 · Yager Stadium · Closing line: Miami (OH) −2.5

Luck index +17 Miami (OH) about even · −17 UConn

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UConn wins 2, Miami (OH) wins 8.

  1. 1 CONN 27 M-OH 13
  2. 2 CONN 31 M-OH 28
  3. 3 CONN 0 M-OH 3
  4. 4 CONN 21 M-OH 28
  5. 5 CONN 14 M-OH 24
  6. 6 CONN 14 M-OH 27
  7. 7 CONN 20 M-OH 35
  8. 8 CONN 14 M-OH 34
  9. 9 CONN 10 M-OH 35
  10. 10 CONN 7 M-OH 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

UConn wins 17% of them, Miami (OH) 83%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Miami (OH) by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
UConn by 17+2.4%
UConn by 9–164.5%
UConn by 1–810.4%
Level after regulation3.8%
Miami (OH) by 1–821.5%
Miami (OH) by 9–1621.1%
Miami (OH) by 17+36.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 points to UConn: the final margin was Miami (OH) by 3, without the luck Miami (OH) by 3.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. O'Connor, 46 yds missed · 62% expected
  • K. McLaughlin, 44 yds missed · 64% expected
  • K. McLaughlin, 40 yds missed · 71% expected
  • B. Stidham, 33 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: UConn 6 for 60 yards, Miami (OH) 2 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:07 Holding on UConn, 10 yards +3% M-OH +1.7 pts
Q1 12:07 Personal Foul on Miami (OH), 15 yards +3% CONN +1.6 pts
Q1 9:15 Personal Foul on Miami (OH), 15 yards +4% CONN +1.8 pts
Q2 9:26 Horse Collar Tackle on UConn, 15 yards +3% M-OH +1.6 pts
Q2 2:10 Pass Interference on UConn, 15 yards +4% CONN +1.2 pts
Q3 0:48 Offside on UConn, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% M-OH +0.3 pts
Q4 14:39 Holding on UConn, 10 yards, wiping out the play +14% M-OH +3.3 pts
Q4 1:27 False Start on UConn, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% M-OH +0.2 pts

When it happened

Miami (OH)’s chance of winning

As low as 15% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Miami (OH) was ahead in it, below while UConn was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:08 UConn was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expected +7% M-OH CONN: Touchdown
2 Q3 13:03 Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% M-OH M-OH: Missed field goal
3 Q3 9:41 K. McLaughlin missed a 44-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him +7% CONN M-OH: Touchdown
4 Q3 5:50 Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% M-OH M-OH: Touchdown
5 Q4 14:40 K. McLaughlin missed a 40-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him +10% CONN M-OH: Punt
6 Q4 14:39 Holding on UConn, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% M-OH M-OH: Punt
7 Q4 0:47 UConn converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +9% CONN CONN: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:17 UConn was stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% M-OH –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

UConn 28% · Miami (OH) 72%

Final margin
Miami (OH) by 3
Luck in points
0.9 for UConn
Luck-adjusted margin
Miami (OH) by 3.9
Replay with same day's form
UConn 17% · Miami (OH) 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · UConn · Miami (OH)

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