Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Boise State at Western Michigan, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Boise State beat Western Michigan 32–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Boise State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Boise State was a 71% favorite.
Final
 Boise State Broncos | 32 |
|---|---|
 Western Michigan Broncos | 7 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Boise State about even · −3 Western Michigan
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Boise State wins 10, Western Michigan wins 0.
- 1 BOIS 48 WMU 7
- 2 BOIS 48 WMU 14
- 3 BOIS 35 WMU 7
- 4 BOIS 35 WMU 10
- 5 BOIS 31 WMU 7
- 6 BOIS 28 WMU 7
- 7 BOIS 27 WMU 10
- 8 BOIS 21 WMU 7
- 9 BOIS 24 WMU 14
- 10 BOIS 28 WMU 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Boise State wins 97% of them, Western Michigan 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Boise State by 25.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Boise State by 17+ | 73.9% |
| Boise State by 9–16 | 14.9% |
| Boise State by 1–8 | 8.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.0% |
| Western Michigan by 1–8 | 1.6% |
| Western Michigan by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Western Michigan by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Moore, 29 yds missed · 88% expected
- D. Kelly, 40 yds missed · 74% expected
- C. Moore, 25 yds made · 90% expected
Penalties: Boise State 4 for 49 yards, Western Michigan 3 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 12:25 | Pass Interference on Boise State, 15 yards | +2% WMU +2.3 pts |
| Q3 7:22 | Pass Interference on Boise State, 15 yards | 0% WMU +1.4 pts |
| Q4 12:40 | Roughing the Passer on Western Michigan, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +1% BOIS +3.8 pts |
| Q4 11:46 | Personal Foul on Boise State, 15 yards | 0% WMU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 8:46 | Delay of Game on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BOIS +0.4 pts |
| Q4 7:21 | Personal Foul on Western Michigan, 15 yards | 0% BOIS +0.9 pts |
| Q4 3:14 | Illegal Formation on Boise State, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% WMU +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Western Michigan’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:33 | Boise State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedBoise State’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +8% BOIS | BOIS: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 10:09 | Western Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +1% BOIS | WMU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 5:01 | C. Moore missed a 29-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him | +3% WMU | BOIS: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 0:43 | Western Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +2% BOIS | WMU: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q1 0:24 | D. Kelly missed a 40-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him | +4% BOIS | WMU: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 12:25 | Pass Interference on Boise State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% WMU | WMU: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q3 10:51 | Western Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +1% BOIS | WMU: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 10:47 | Western Michigan was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +2% BOIS | WMU: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Boise State 100% · Western Michigan 0%
- Final margin
- Boise State by 25
- Luck in points
- 11.3 for Boise State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Boise State by 13.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Boise State 97% · Western Michigan 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Boise State · 
Western Michigan
More from Week 4 2026
- Rice at Fresno State FRES 38–24 · replay 59% for the winner
- Robert Morris at Buffalo BUF 31–28 · replay 63% for the winner
- South Florida at Bowling Green USF 14–6 · replay 68% for the winner
- UNLV at Akron UNLV 38–10 · replay 71% for the winner
- Arizona at Washington State ARIZ 34–24 · replay 73% for the winner
- Troy at Utah State USU 21–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- UConn at Miami (OH) M-OH 24–21 · replay 83% for the winner
- Ball State at Kent State KENT 26–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Sacramento State MASS 35–6 · replay 94% for the winner
- Colorado State at UTSA UTSA 59–45 · replay 96% for the winner
- Lindenwood at Eastern Michigan EMU 29–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- San Diego State at Toledo TOL 41–16 · replay 99% for the winner