luckadjusted
CFB Week 10 · 2026

2026 college football season · October 27, 2026–October 31, 2026

Week 9 2026: upsets, and who deserved to win

11 upsets in Week 9 2026. The biggest: Troy beat James Madison 24–21 as 13% underdogs, a coin flip on the day. 8 of 56 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: Sacramento State beat Kent State 31–10 in a game it wins 34% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Week 9 2026 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 5 of 11 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Troy 24–21 @ James Madison 13% 41% Coin flip
Iowa State 51–49 vs Oklahoma State 26% 25% Lucky
Syracuse 30–27 vs SMU 29% 50% Coin flip
Sacramento State 31–10 vs Kent State 31% 34% Lucky
Washington 17–10 @ Nebraska 31% 23% Lucky
USC 30–18 vs Ohio State 34% 67% Deserved
Fresno State 38–22 vs Oregon State 35% 95% Deserved
Clemson 36–24 @ Florida State 39% 6% Lucky
Coastal Carolina 31–20 @ Georgia State 41% 78% Deserved
South Carolina 42–25 @ Oklahoma 41% 98% Deserved
Delaware 35–21 @ Western Kentucky 44% 64% Deserved

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 9 luck ranking

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Clemson W 36–24 @ Florida State 6% +94
2 Marshall W 36–23 @ Old Dominion 12% +88
3 Washington W 17–10 @ Nebraska 23% +77
4 Iowa State W 51–49 vs Oklahoma State 25% +75
5 Sacramento State W 31–10 vs Kent State 34% +66
6 Southern Miss W 35–21 @ UL Monroe 34% +66
7 Illinois W 20–17 @ Maryland 39% +61
8 TCU W 22–16 vs Kansas 40% +60
9 Troy W 24–21 @ James Madison 41% +59
10 Miami W 38–35 @ North Carolina 44% +56
11 Syracuse W 30–27 vs SMU 50% +50
12 Oregon W 34–26 vs Northwestern 54% +46
13 Louisiana Tech W 35–20 @ South Alabama 56% +44
14 Missouri State W 24–3 vs Sam Houston 60% +40
15 San Diego State W 26–20 vs Washington State 61% +39
16 East Carolina W 17–9 vs Temple 62% +38
17 Delaware W 35–21 @ Western Kentucky 64% +36
18 USC W 30–18 vs Ohio State 67% +33
19 Boise State W 46–45 vs Texas State 68% +32
20 BYU W 27–20 vs Arizona State 69% +31
21 Western Michigan W 23–10 vs Bowling Green 73% +27
22 Air Force W 35–26 vs UConn 75% +25
23 North Texas W 48–41 vs Florida Atlantic 75% +25
24 Michigan W 28–21 @ Rutgers 75% +25
25 Colorado W 27–24 vs Kansas State 75% +25
26 New Mexico W 21–16 @ San José State 77% +23
27 Coastal Carolina W 31–20 @ Georgia State 78% +22
28 UNLV W 31–24 vs Northern Illinois 79% +21
29 Georgia W 27–8 vs Florida 83% +17
30 Texas Tech W 34–26 vs Arizona 83% +17
31 Missouri W 34–10 @ Arkansas 84% +16
32 Pittsburgh W 34–11 vs Georgia Tech 85% +15
33 Georgia Southern W 19–3 vs App State 88% +12
34 Wake Forest W 51–7 vs Virginia 88% +12
35 South Florida W 30–10 vs UAB 89% +11
36 Tulane W 38–31 @ Charlotte 89% +11
37 NC State W 31–10 vs California 93% +7
38 Texas W 31–3 vs Mississippi State 93% +7
39 North Dakota State W 31–7 vs UTEP 93% +7
40 Notre Dame W 35–13 vs Navy 94% +6
41 Fresno State W 38–22 vs Oregon State 95% +5
42 UCLA W 27–0 vs Nevada 95% +5
43 Duke W 47–2 vs Boston College 95% +5
44 Kennesaw State W 44–28 @ Middle Tennessee 95% +5
45 Indiana W 23–16 vs Minnesota 95% +5
46 Penn State W 31–17 vs Purdue 97% +3
47 Jacksonville State W 24–0 @ New Mexico State 97% +3
48 Memphis W 49–22 vs Army 98% +2
49 Ole Miss W 45–15 vs Auburn 98% +2
50 South Carolina W 42–25 @ Oklahoma 98% +2
51 Louisville W 52–24 vs Stanford 99% +1
52 Utah State W 31–14 vs Colorado State 99% +1
53 Liberty W 49–10 vs Florida International 99% +1
54 Iowa W 30–0 vs Wisconsin 100% 0
55 Baylor W 41–9 @ UCF 100% 0
56 Utah W 49–25 @ Cincinnati 100% 0
57 UCF L 9–41 vs Baylor 0% 0
58 Cincinnati L 25–49 vs Utah 0% 0
59 Wisconsin L 0–30 @ Iowa 0% 0
60 Florida International L 10–49 @ Liberty 1% −1
61 Colorado State L 14–31 @ Utah State 1% −1
62 Stanford L 24–52 @ Louisville 1% −1
63 Auburn L 15–45 @ Ole Miss 2% −2
64 Oklahoma L 25–42 vs South Carolina 2% −2
65 Army L 22–49 @ Memphis 2% −2
66 New Mexico State L 0–24 vs Jacksonville State 3% −3
67 Purdue L 17–31 @ Penn State 3% −3
68 Minnesota L 16–23 @ Indiana 5% −5
69 Middle Tennessee L 28–44 vs Kennesaw State 5% −5
70 Boston College L 2–47 @ Duke 5% −5
71 Nevada L 0–27 @ UCLA 5% −5
72 Oregon State L 22–38 @ Fresno State 5% −5
73 Navy L 13–35 vs Notre Dame 6% −6
74 UTEP L 7–31 @ North Dakota State 7% −7
75 Mississippi State L 3–31 @ Texas 7% −7
76 California L 10–31 @ NC State 7% −7
77 Charlotte L 31–38 vs Tulane 11% −11
78 UAB L 10–30 @ South Florida 11% −11
79 Virginia L 7–51 @ Wake Forest 12% −12
80 App State L 3–19 @ Georgia Southern 12% −12
81 Georgia Tech L 11–34 @ Pittsburgh 15% −15
82 Arkansas L 10–34 vs Missouri 16% −16
83 Arizona L 26–34 @ Texas Tech 17% −17
84 Florida L 8–27 vs Georgia 17% −17
85 Northern Illinois L 24–31 @ UNLV 21% −21
86 Georgia State L 20–31 vs Coastal Carolina 22% −22
87 San José State L 16–21 vs New Mexico 23% −23
88 Kansas State L 24–27 @ Colorado 25% −25
89 Rutgers L 21–28 vs Michigan 25% −25
90 Florida Atlantic L 41–48 @ North Texas 25% −25
91 UConn L 26–35 @ Air Force 25% −25
92 Bowling Green L 10–23 @ Western Michigan 27% −27
93 Arizona State L 20–27 @ BYU 31% −31
94 Texas State L 45–46 @ Boise State 32% −32
95 Ohio State L 18–30 @ USC 33% −33
96 Western Kentucky L 21–35 vs Delaware 36% −36
97 Temple L 9–17 @ East Carolina 38% −38
98 Washington State L 20–26 @ San Diego State 39% −39
99 Sam Houston L 3–24 @ Missouri State 40% −40
100 South Alabama L 20–35 vs Louisiana Tech 44% −44
101 Northwestern L 26–34 @ Oregon 46% −46
102 SMU L 27–30 @ Syracuse 50% −50
103 North Carolina L 35–38 vs Miami 56% −56
104 James Madison L 21–24 vs Troy 59% −59
105 Kansas L 16–22 @ TCU 60% −60
106 Maryland L 17–20 vs Illinois 61% −61
107 UL Monroe L 21–35 vs Southern Miss 66% −66
108 Kent State L 10–31 @ Sacramento State 66% −66
109 Oklahoma State L 49–51 @ Iowa State 75% −75
110 Nebraska L 10–17 vs Washington 77% −77
111 Old Dominion L 23–36 vs Marshall 88% −88
112 Florida State L 24–36 vs Clemson 94% −94