Big Ten · 2026 season, in progress

Oregon Ducks: luck and expected wins

Oregon is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.5 wins. Luck added 0.5: the 26th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–1.

2026, game by game

How often Oregon wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Boise State	W 34–27	91%	+9
Week 2	@ Oklahoma State	L 31–39	4%	−4
Week 3	vs Portland State	W 84–0	100%	0
Week 4	@ USC	W 41–27	53%	+47

Wk 1 +9 vs BOIS

Wk 2 −4 @ OKST

Wk 3 0 vs PRST

Wk 4 +47 @ USC

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Oregon win chance
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs UCLA	Oregon by 8.7	71%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Nebraska	Oregon by 6.4	65%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at Illinois	Oregon by 6.0	64%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs Northwestern	Oregon by 10.2	73%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at Ohio State	Ohio State by 11.7	24%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Michigan	Oregon by 11.4	75%
Week 12 · Nov 20	at Michigan State	Oregon by 11.3	75%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Washington	Oregon by 14.9	81%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Oregon’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.08	+13.1
Fumble bounces	−0.04	−1.7
Pre-snap flags	−0.13	−4.9

Luckiest wins

Wins Oregon takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 14	@ Washington	W 26–14	34%	+67
2025 Week 5	@ Penn State	W 30–24	39%	+61
2026 Week 4	@ USC	W 41–27	53%	+47
2026 CFP quarterfinal, Orange Bowl	vs Texas Tech	W 23–0	56%	+44
2025 Week 11	@ Iowa	W 18–16	81%	+19

Unluckiest losses

Losses Oregon would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 7	vs Indiana	L 20–30	45%	−45
2026 CFP semifinal, Peach Bowl	vs Indiana	L 22–56	39%	−39
2026 Week 2	@ Oklahoma State	L 31–39	4%	−4

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	11–1	9.8	+1.2	2–0	2–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Montana State	W 59–13	100%	0
Week 2	vs Oklahoma State	W 69–3	100%	0
Week 3	@ Northwestern	W 34–14	98%	+2
Week 4	vs Oregon State	W 41–7	100%	0
Week 5	@ Penn State	W 30–24	39%	+61
Week 7	vs Indiana	L 20–30	45%	−45
Week 8	@ Rutgers	W 56–10	100%	0
Week 9	vs Wisconsin	W 21–7	87%	+13
Week 11	@ Iowa	W 18–16	81%	+19
Week 12	vs Minnesota	W 42–13	100%	0
Week 13	vs USC	W 42–27	94%	+6
Week 14	@ Washington	W 26–14	34%	+67
CFP first round	vs James Madison	W 51–34	99%	+1
CFP quarterfinal, Orange Bowl	vs Texas Tech	W 23–0	56%	+44
CFP semifinal, Peach Bowl	vs Indiana	L 22–56	39%	−39