Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Oregon at Rutgers, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Oregon beat Rutgers 56–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oregon wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Oregon was an 87% favorite.
Final
 Oregon Ducks | 56 |
|---|---|
 Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Oregon about even · 0 Rutgers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oregon wins 10, Rutgers wins 0.
- 1 ORE 72 RUTG 0
- 2 ORE 69 RUTG 3
- 3 ORE 61 RUTG 0
- 4 ORE 63 RUTG 7
- 5 ORE 54 RUTG 0
- 6 ORE 52 RUTG 0
- 7 ORE 51 RUTG 3
- 8 ORE 52 RUTG 7
- 9 ORE 47 RUTG 7
- 10 ORE 42 RUTG 12
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Oregon wins 100% of them, Rutgers 0%. The line is what actually happened: Oregon by 46.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oregon by 17+ | 98.0% |
| Oregon by 9–16 | 1.6% |
| Oregon by 1–8 | 0.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Rutgers by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Rutgers by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Rutgers by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Patel, 51 yds made · 52% expected
- G. Hurych, 44 yds missed · 65% expected
Penalties: Oregon 4 for 38 yards, Rutgers 5 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:36 | Penalty on Oregon, 10 yards | +1% RUTG +1.3 pts |
| Q1 0:41 | Penalty on Oregon, 3 yards | 0% RUTG 0.0 pts |
| Q1 0:41 | Penalty on Oregon, 15 yards | +3% ORE +5.0 pts |
| Q2 1:14 | Offside on Rutgers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:55 | Offside on Rutgers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +1.1 pts |
| Q3 7:05 | Face Mask on Rutgers, 10 yards | 0% ORE +1.3 pts |
| Q3 6:48 | Holding on Oregon, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% RUTG +2.6 pts |
| Q3 3:42 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Rutgers, 15 yards | 0% ORE +0.8 pts |
| Q3 1:10 | Offside on Rutgers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Rutgers’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:35 | Oregon fumbled and Rutgers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% RUTG | ORE: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 13:22 | Rutgers was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +1% ORE | RUTG: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 13:18 | J. Patel made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 52% expected for him, 6 of 11 from 45+ before | +2% RUTG | RUTG: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 11:52 | Oregon converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +1% ORE | ORE: End of half |
| 5 | Q1 9:10 | Oregon converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +1% ORE | ORE: End of half |
| 6 | Q1 7:24 | Oregon converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +2% ORE | ORE: End of half |
| 7 | Q1 3:03 | Rutgers fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% RUTG | RUTG: End of half |
| 8 | Q1 0:41 | Penalty on Oregon, 3 yardsJudgment callsPenalty on Oregon, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% ORE | RUTG: End of half |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oregon 100% · Rutgers 0%
- Final margin
- Oregon by 46
- Luck in points
- 1.4 for Rutgers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oregon by 47.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Oregon 100% · Rutgers 0% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Oregon · 
Rutgers
More from Week 8 2025
- USC at Notre Dame ND 34–24 · replay 73% for the winner
- Purdue at Northwestern NU 19–0 · replay 77% for the winner
- Maryland at UCLA UCLA 20–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Washington at Michigan MICH 24–7 · replay 90% for the winner
- Nebraska at Minnesota MINN 24–6 · replay 91% for the winner
- Penn State at Iowa IOWA 25–24 · replay 95% for the winner
- Ohio State at Wisconsin OSU 34–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Michigan State at Indiana IU 38–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner