luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025

Ohio State at Wisconsin, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

Ohio State beat Wisconsin 34–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Ohio State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Ohio State was a 94% favorite.

Final

Ohio State Buckeyes 34
Wisconsin Badgers 0

October 18, 2025 · Camp Randall Stadium · Closing line: Ohio State −24.5

Luck index +1 Ohio State about even · −1 Wisconsin

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ohio State wins 10, Wisconsin wins 0.

  1. 1 OSU 49 WIS 0
  2. 2 OSU 42 WIS 0
  3. 3 OSU 44 WIS 7
  4. 4 OSU 34 WIS 0
  5. 5 OSU 38 WIS 7
  6. 6 OSU 31 WIS 3
  7. 7 OSU 28 WIS 3
  8. 8 OSU 36 WIS 14
  9. 9 OSU 37 WIS 20
  10. 10 OSU 10 WIS 0

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ohio State wins 99% of them, Wisconsin 1%. The line is what actually happened: Ohio State by 34.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ohio State by 17+88.8%
Ohio State by 9–167.2%
Ohio State by 1–83.4%
Level after regulation0.2%
Wisconsin by 1–80.4%
Wisconsin by 9–160.1%
Wisconsin by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 points to Wisconsin: the final margin was Ohio State by 34, without the luck Ohio State by 35.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Fielding, 38 yds made · 77% expected
  • J. Fielding, 38 yds missed · 78% expected
  • J. Fielding, 37 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ohio State 4 for 25 yards, Wisconsin 2 for 10 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:15 False Start on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WIS +0.5 pts
Q2 14:22 Pass Interference on Ohio State, 10 yards 0% WIS +1.9 pts
Q2 8:35 False Start on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% OSU +0.5 pts
Q2 3:41 False Start on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WIS +0.5 pts
Q3 9:54 False Start on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WIS +0.4 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% OSU +0.9 pts

When it happened

Wisconsin’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Wisconsin was ahead in it, below while Ohio State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:15 False Start on Ohio State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% WIS WIS: Turnover
2 Q1 8:25 Ohio State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +1% OSU OSU: Field goal
3 Q1 4:40 J. Fielding made a 38-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him +0% OSU OSU: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:28 Wisconsin was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +0% OSU WIS: Punt
5 Q2 14:22 Pass Interference on Ohio State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% WIS WIS: Punt
6 Q2 9:43 Wisconsin converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +0% WIS WIS: Punt
7 Q2 1:07 J. Fielding missed a 38-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him +0% WIS OSU: End of half
8 Q3 11:29 Ohio State converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +0% OSU OSU: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ohio State 100% · Wisconsin 0%

Final margin
Ohio State by 34
Luck in points
1.6 for Wisconsin
Luck-adjusted margin
Ohio State by 35.6
Replay with same day's form
Ohio State 99% · Wisconsin 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Ohio State · Wisconsin

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