Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Wyoming at Air Force, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Air Force beat Wyoming 24–21, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Wyoming wins 9 of 10.
Air Force won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Wyoming it would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff Air Force was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:17 left): Air Force was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 15 points of win probability to Wyoming.
Final
 Wyoming Cowboys | 21 |
|---|---|
 Air Force Falcons | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +87 Air Force very lucky · −87 Wyoming
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wyoming wins 9, Air Force wins 1.
- 1 WYO 44 AF 7
- 2 WYO 39 AF 10
- 3 WYO 31 AF 7
- 4 WYO 42 AF 21
- 5 WYO 24 AF 7
- 6 WYO 35 AF 21
- 7 WYO 24 AF 14
- 8 WYO 27 AF 20
- 9 WYO 27 AF 24
- 10 WYO 14 AF 20
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Air Force won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Wyoming it would win 62% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
49 points apart for Air Force: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wyoming offenseEPA per play gained | +0.12 | −0.01 | better by 0.13 |
| Wyoming defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.06 | worse by 0.09 |
| Air Force offenseEPA per play gained | +0.15 | +0.12 | better by 0.03 |
| Air Force defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.12 | +0.23 | better by 0.11 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Wyoming wins 87% of them, Air Force 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Air Force by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wyoming by 17+ | 44.3% |
| Wyoming by 9–16 | 21.6% |
| Wyoming by 1–8 | 19.7% |
| Level after regulation | 2.2% |
| Air Force by 1–8 | 8.1% |
| Air Force by 9–16 | 3.1% |
| Air Force by 17+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Tubbs, 32 yds made · 84% expected
- R. Tubbs, 29 yds made · 88% expected
- R. Tubbs, 40 yds made · 73% expected
Penalties: Wyoming 1 for 5 yards, Air Force 3 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2:30 | False Start on Air Force, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WYO +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:31 | False Start on Air Force, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% AF +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:16 | Holding on Air Force, 10 yards | +1% WYO +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:10 | False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WYO +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Air Force’s chance of winning
As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 6:45 | Air Force was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +6% AF | AF: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 6:41 | R. Tubbs made a 29-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him | +7% WYO | AF: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 10:53 | Wyoming converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +7% WYO | WYO: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 3:10 | Wyoming was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +7% AF | WYO: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 1:39 | Air Force converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +9% AF | AF: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 14:17 | Air Force was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +15% WYO | AF: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 6:01 | Air Force was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +7% WYO | AF: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 5:28 | Air Force converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +7% AF | AF: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wyoming 34% · Air Force 66%
- Final margin
- Air Force by 3
- Luck in points
- 0.8 for Air Force
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Air Force by 2.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Wyoming 87% · Air Force 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Wyoming · 
Air Force
More from Week 8 2025
- Nevada at New Mexico UNM 24–22 · replay 58% for the winner
- San José State at Utah State USU 30–25 · replay 71% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Colorado State HAW 31–19 · replay 94% for the winner
- UNLV at Boise State BOIS 56–31 · replay 95% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Arizona State ASU 26–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Liberty LIB 30–27 · replay 42% for the winner