luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025

Texas Tech at Arizona State, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

Arizona State beat Texas Tech 26–22, but the replays lean toward Texas Tech: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: pre-snap flags alone were worth 54 points of win probability to Arizona State.

Before kickoff Texas Tech was a 69% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:33 left): Offside on Arizona State, 5 yards, worth 50 points of win probability to Arizona State.

Final

Texas Tech Red Raiders 22
Arizona State Sun Devils 26

October 18, 2025 · Mountain America Stadium · Closing line: Texas Tech −7.5

Luck index +62 Arizona State very lucky · −62 Texas Tech

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texas Tech wins 6, Arizona State wins 4.

  1. 1 TTU 37 ASU 7
  2. 2 TTU 23 ASU 3
  3. 3 TTU 25 ASU 10
  4. 4 TTU 27 ASU 17
  5. 5 TTU 23 ASU 17
  6. 6 TTU 16 ASU 13
  7. 7 TTU 14 ASU 17
  8. 8 TTU 3 ASU 10
  9. 9 TTU 7 ASU 19
  10. 10 TTU 10 ASU 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texas Tech wins 62% of them, Arizona State 38%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Arizona State by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texas Tech by 17+20.3%
Texas Tech by 9–1619.9%
Texas Tech by 1–821.4%
Level after regulation5.1%
Arizona State by 1–817.2%
Arizona State by 9–1610.0%
Arizona State by 17+6.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.0 points to Arizona State: the final margin was Arizona State by 4, without the luck Texas Tech by 6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Gomez, 34 yds made · 82% expected
  • J. Gomez, 47 yds made · 59% expected
  • J. Gomez, 26 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Gomez, 28 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texas Tech 5 for 39 yards, Arizona State 6 for 37 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:01 False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ASU +1.5 pts
Q1 3:26 False Start on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TTU +0.4 pts
Q1 0:23 Pass Interference on Texas Tech, 15 yards 0% ASU +1.0 pts
Q2 2:10 Illegal Snap on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TTU +1.6 pts
Q3 9:58 Roughing the Passer on Texas Tech, 2 yards +10% ASU +3.3 pts
Q3 7:34 False Start on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TTU +0.8 pts
Q4 13:51 Face Mask on Arizona State, 15 yards +3% TTU +1.2 pts
Q4 6:06 False Start on Texas Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ASU +1.2 pts
Q4 2:00 Holding on Arizona State, 2 yards +23% ASU +5.0 pts
Q4 0:46 Pass Interference on Texas Tech, 12 yards 0% ASU +2.4 pts
Q4 0:33 Offside on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap +50% ASU +2.0 pts

When it happened

Arizona State’s chance of winning

As low as 4% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Arizona State was ahead in it, below while Texas Tech was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:15 Texas Tech was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +6% ASU TTU: Touchdown
2 Q2 8:18 Arizona State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +9% TTU ASU: Field goal
3 Q3 14:06 Arizona State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% ASU ASU: Punt
4 Q3 9:58 Roughing the Passer on Texas Tech, 2 yardsJudgment calls +10% ASU ASU: Touchdown
5 Q3 6:17 Arizona State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedArizona State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% ASU ASU: Field goal
6 Q3 1:29 Arizona State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedArizona State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% ASU ASU: Field goal
7 Q4 2:00 Texas Tech’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedHolding on Arizona State, 2 yardsJudgment calls +20% ASU TTU: End of game
8 Q4 0:33 The game turned hereOffside on Arizona State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +50% ASU TTU: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texas Tech 78% · Arizona State 22%

Final margin
Arizona State by 4
Luck in points
10.0 for Arizona State
Luck-adjusted margin
Texas Tech by 6.0
Replay with same day's form
Texas Tech 62% · Arizona State 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Texas Tech · Arizona State

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