Big 12 · 2026 season, in progress
Arizona State Sun Devils: luck and expected wins
Arizona State is 2–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.6 wins. Luck added 0.4: the 35th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.
2026, game by game
How often Arizona State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Morgan State | W 70–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | @ Texas A&M | L 20–48 | 55% | −55 |
| Week 3 | vs Kansas | W 24–17 | 8% | +92 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Arizona State win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | vs Baylor |  Arizona State by 2.7 | 57% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | vs Hawai'i | Arizona State by 19.9 | 89% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | at Texas Tech |  Texas Tech by 12.4 | 22% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | vs Kansas State |  Kansas State by 1.1 | 47% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | at BYU |  BYU by 11.6 | 24% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | vs Colorado | Arizona State by 11.2 | 75% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | at UCF |  UCF by 3.7 | 41% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs Oklahoma State | Arizona State by 7.8 | 68% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | at Arizona |  Arizona by 6.1 | 36% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Arizona State’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.21 | +5.9 |
| Kicks | +0.04 | +2.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.02 | +5.9 |
| Pre-snap flags | −0.08 | −5.1 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Arizona State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Week 3 | vs Kansas | W 24–17 | 8% | +92 |
| 2025 Week 8 | vs Texas Tech | W 26–22 | 38% | +62 |
| 2025 Week 4 | @ Baylor | W 27–24 | 39% | +61 |
| 2025 Week 12 | vs West Virginia | W 25–23 | 56% | +44 |
| 2025 Week 10 | @ Iowa State | W 24–19 | 62% | +38 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Arizona State would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl | vs Duke | L 39–42 | 56% | −56 |
| 2026 Week 2 | @ Texas A&M | L 20–48 | 55% | −55 |
| 2025 Week 2 | @ Mississippi State | L 20–24 | 53% | −53 |
| 2025 Week 9 | vs Houston | L 16–24 | 46% | −46 |
| 2025 Week 14 | vs Arizona | L 7–23 | 37% | −37 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8–4 | 7.1 | +0.9 | 5–2 | 0–1 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Northern Arizona | W 38–19 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 2 | @ Mississippi State | L 20–24 | 53% | −53 |
| Week 3 | vs Texas State | W 34–15 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 4 | @ Baylor | W 27–24 | 39% | +61 |
| Week 5 | vs TCU | W 27–24 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 7 | @ Utah | L 10–42 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 8 | vs Texas Tech | W 26–22 | 38% | +62 |
| Week 9 | vs Houston | L 16–24 | 46% | −46 |
| Week 10 | @ Iowa State | W 24–19 | 62% | +38 |
| Week 12 | vs West Virginia | W 25–23 | 56% | +44 |
| Week 13 | @ Colorado | W 42–17 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 14 | vs Arizona | L 7–23 | 37% | −37 |
| Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl | vs Duke | L 39–42 | 56% | −56 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Big 12 teams by luck
- Big 12: Arizona,
Baylor, BYU, 
Cincinnati, 
Colorado, 
Houston, 
Iowa State, 
Kansas, Kansas State, 
Oklahoma State, 
TCU, Texas Tech, UCF, 
Utah, 
West Virginia
How many wins does Arizona State have in 2026?
2–1 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 1.6 wins.
Was Arizona State lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: +0.4 wins of luck, the 35th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Arizona State’s luckiest season?
2025: 8–4 from play worth 7.1 wins, +0.9 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 2–1 from play worth 1.6 (+0.4).