Week 2 2026 · September 12, 2026
Arizona State at Texas A&M, Week 2 2026: who deserved to win?
Texas A&M beat Arizona State 48–20, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Texas A&M wins 4 of 10.
Texas A&M won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Arizona State it would win 82% of the time; with this day’s form, 45%. The numbers
Before kickoff Texas A&M was an 84% favorite.
Final
 Arizona State Sun Devils | 20 |
|---|---|
 Texas A&M Aggies | 48 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +55 Texas A&M lucky · −55 Arizona State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arizona State wins 6, Texas A&M wins 4.
- 1 ASU 29 TA&M 0
- 2 ASU 31 TA&M 10
- 3 ASU 24 TA&M 10
- 4 ASU 24 TA&M 13
- 5 ASU 23 TA&M 16
- 6 ASU 26 TA&M 23
- 7 ASU 28 TA&M 31
- 8 ASU 20 TA&M 27
- 9 ASU 14 TA&M 27
- 10 ASU 3 TA&M 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Texas A&M won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Arizona State it would win 82% of the time; with this day’s form, 45%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
38 points apart for Texas A&M: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.04 | +0.07 | worse by 0.03 |
| Arizona State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.04 | better by 0.00 |
| Texas A&M offenseEPA per play gained | +0.04 | +0.13 | worse by 0.09 |
| Texas A&M defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.01 | worse by 0.03 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Arizona State wins 55% of them, Texas A&M 45%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas A&M by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arizona State by 17+ | 16.6% |
| Arizona State by 9–16 | 18.2% |
| Arizona State by 1–8 | 19.0% |
| Level after regulation | 2.7% |
| Texas A&M by 1–8 | 21.9% |
| Texas A&M by 9–16 | 12.3% |
| Texas A&M by 17+ | 9.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Smith, 30 yds made · 86% expected
- D. Olano, 22 yds made · 93% expected
- C. Smith, 35 yds made · 81% expected
- D. Olano, 39 yds made · 74% expected
Penalties: Arizona State 9 for 62 yards, Texas A&M 1 for 5 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:43 | Illegal Substitution on Arizona State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% TA&M +1.9 pts |
| Q1 5:18 | Offside on Arizona State, 2 yards · pre-snap | +1% TA&M +0.6 pts |
| Q1 1:04 | Illegal Formation on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TA&M +1.3 pts |
| Q2 14:59 | Offside on Arizona State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% TA&M +0.2 pts |
| Q2 8:41 | Ineligible Downfield on Arizona State, 5 yards | +1% TA&M +0.8 pts |
| Q3 9:47 | Face Mask on Arizona State, 15 yards | +1% TA&M +0.8 pts |
| Q3 8:11 | Holding on Arizona State, 10 yards | +5% TA&M +3.3 pts |
| Q3 2:02 | Illegal Block on Arizona State, 10 yards | +2% TA&M +0.6 pts |
| Q4 7:46 | False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ASU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 5:58 | Delay of Game on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TA&M +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Texas A&M’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 0:41 | Arizona State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +3% ASU | ASU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 14:32 | Texas A&M converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +3% TA&M | TA&M: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 10:44 | Texas A&M converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +3% TA&M | TA&M: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 9:15 | Texas A&M converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +3% TA&M | TA&M: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 8:11 | Holding on Arizona State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% TA&M | TA&M: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 3:39 | Arizona State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +3% ASU | ASU: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 2:46 | Texas A&M was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +3% ASU | TA&M: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 8:38 | Return touchdown by Texas A&MSpecial teams | +6% TA&M | TA&M: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arizona State 0% · Texas A&M 100%
- Final margin
- Texas A&M by 28
- Luck in points
- 6.2 for Texas A&M
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas A&M by 21.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Arizona State 55% · Texas A&M 45% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2026 games · 
Arizona State · 
Texas A&M
More from Week 2 2026
- Texas Tech at Oregon State TTU 35–24 · replay 27% for the winner
- Ohio State at Texas TEX 24–23 · replay 32% for the winner
- Tennessee at Georgia Tech TENN 45–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Michigan MICH 17–10 · replay 48% for the winner
- UCF at Pittsburgh PITT 12–7 · replay 58% for the winner
- Delaware at Vanderbilt VAN 35–26 · replay 74% for the winner
- Iowa State at Iowa IOWA 16–13 · replay 76% for the winner
- Arizona at BYU BYU 28–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Missouri at Kansas MIZ 38–21 · replay 89% for the winner
- Charlotte at Ole Miss MISS 41–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- Oregon at Oklahoma State OKST 39–31 · replay 96% for the winner
- Towson at South Carolina SC 45–9 · replay 97% for the winner