SEC · 2026 season, in progress

Texas A&M Aggies: luck and expected wins

Texas A&M is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 39th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.

2026, game by game

How often Texas A&M wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Missouri State	W 50–0	100%	0
Week 2	vs Arizona State	W 48–20	45%	+55
Week 3	vs Kentucky	L 21–31	21%	−21
Week 4	@ LSU	L 6–35	0%	0

Wk 1 0 vs MOST

Wk 2 +55 vs ASU

Wk 3 −21 vs UK

Wk 4 0 @ LSU

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Texas A&M win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Arkansas	Texas A&M by 16.7	85%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at Missouri	Texas A&M by 1.7	54%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs The Citadel	Texas A&M by 51.6	100%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at Alabama	Alabama by 13.7	20%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at South Carolina	Texas A&M by 4.0	59%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Tennessee	Texas A&M by 0.3	51%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Oklahoma	Oklahoma by 1.3	47%
Week 13 · Nov 27	vs Texas	Texas by 6.2	36%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Texas A&M’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Pre-snap flags	+0.07	+4.5
Kicks	+0.03	+8.5
Fumble bounces	−0.02	+1.5
3rd & 4th downs	−0.08	+11.5

Luckiest wins

Wins Texas A&M takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 3	@ Notre Dame	W 41–40	37%	+63
2026 Week 2	vs Arizona State	W 48–20	45%	+55
2025 Week 11	@ Missouri	W 38–17	66%	+34
2025 Week 8	@ Arkansas	W 45–42	78%	+22
2025 Week 12	vs South Carolina	W 31–30	85%	+15

Unluckiest losses

Losses Texas A&M would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 14	@ Texas	L 17–27	69%	−69
2025 CFP first round	vs Miami	L 3–10	58%	−58
2026 Week 3	vs Kentucky	L 21–31	21%	−21
2026 Week 4	@ LSU	L 6–35	0%	0

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	11–1	10.1	+0.9	4–0	0–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs UTSA	W 42–24	91%	+9
Week 2	vs Utah State	W 44–22	100%	0
Week 3	@ Notre Dame	W 41–40	37%	+63
Week 5	vs Auburn	W 16–10	95%	+5
Week 6	vs Mississippi State	W 31–9	100%	0
Week 7	vs Florida	W 34–17	98%	+2
Week 8	@ Arkansas	W 45–42	78%	+22
Week 9	@ LSU	W 49–25	97%	+3
Week 11	@ Missouri	W 38–17	66%	+34
Week 12	vs South Carolina	W 31–30	85%	+15
Week 13	vs Samford	W 48–0	100%	0
Week 14	@ Texas	L 17–27	69%	−69
CFP first round	vs Miami	L 3–10	58%	−58