Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Kentucky at Texas A&M, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Kentucky beat Texas A&M 31–21, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
An off day for Texas A&M: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Kentucky it would win 70% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%. The numbers
Before kickoff Texas A&M was an 86% favorite.
Final
 Kentucky Wildcats | 31 |
|---|---|
 Texas A&M Aggies | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Kentucky about even · −21 Texas A&M
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kentucky wins 8, Texas A&M wins 2.
- 1 UK 52 TA&M 17
- 2 UK 41 TA&M 14
- 3 UK 42 TA&M 21
- 4 UK 31 TA&M 14
- 5 UK 20 TA&M 7
- 6 UK 28 TA&M 19
- 7 UK 20 TA&M 14
- 8 UK 41 TA&M 38
- 9 UK 27 TA&M 30
- 10 UK 17 TA&M 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Texas A&M
Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Kentucky it would win 70% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
50 points apart for Texas A&M: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky offenseEPA per play gained | +0.55 | +0.00 | better by 0.54 |
| Kentucky defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.06 | better by 0.05 |
| Texas A&M offenseEPA per play gained | +0.01 | +0.12 | worse by 0.11 |
| Texas A&M defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.55 | +0.01 | worse by 0.53 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kentucky wins 79% of them, Texas A&M 21%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kentucky by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kentucky by 17+ | 36.5% |
| Kentucky by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| Kentucky by 1–8 | 19.3% |
| Level after regulation | 5.5% |
| Texas A&M by 1–8 | 11.7% |
| Texas A&M by 9–16 | 4.8% |
| Texas A&M by 17+ | 3.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Zouagui, 39 yds missed · 75% expected
- A. Zouagui, 52 yds made · 50% expected
Penalties: Kentucky 7 for 59 yards, Texas A&M 2 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 13:59 | False Start on Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TA&M +0.9 pts |
| Q2 5:26 | Pass Interference on Kentucky, 14 yards | +3% TA&M +2.3 pts |
| Q2 3:51 | Holding on Kentucky, 10 yards | +2% TA&M +1.3 pts |
| Q3 7:16 | False Start on Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TA&M +0.5 pts |
| Q4 8:22 | False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UK +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:40 | Kick Catch Interference on Kentucky, 15 yards | 0% TA&M +0.9 pts |
| Q4 4:26 | Face Mask on Kentucky, 5 yards | 0% TA&M +1.0 pts |
| Q4 2:08 | Delay of Game on Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TA&M +0.3 pts |
| Q4 1:23 | False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UK +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Texas A&M’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 91%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:14 | Texas A&M was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +5% UK | TA&M: Turnover |
| 2 | Q2 12:20 | A. Zouagui missed a 39-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him | +4% TA&M | UK: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 11:51 | Kentucky converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +4% UK | UK: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 9:55 | Texas A&M was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +6% UK | TA&M: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 7:54 | Kentucky converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +6% UK | UK: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 3:00 | Texas A&M was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +4% UK | TA&M: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q3 2:17 | Texas A&M was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +4% UK | TA&M: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 11:37 | Texas A&M converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +3% TA&M | TA&M: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kentucky 99% · Texas A&M 1%
- Final margin
- Kentucky by 10
- Luck in points
- 5.0 for Texas A&M
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kentucky by 15.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Kentucky 79% · Texas A&M 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Kentucky · 
Texas A&M
More from Week 3 2026
- LSU at Ole Miss MISS 32–24 · replay 69% for the winner
- Mississippi State at South Carolina MSST 41–34 · replay 73% for the winner
- Florida at Auburn FLA 44–39 · replay 73% for the winner
- NC State at Vanderbilt VAN 35–31 · replay 77% for the winner
- Florida State at Alabama ALA 50–36 · replay 77% for the winner
- Troy at Missouri MIZ 27–17 · replay 90% for the winner
- New Mexico at Oklahoma OU 14–6 · replay 96% for the winner
- Georgia at Arkansas UGA 45–17 · replay 97% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Tennessee TENN 42–9 · replay 99% for the winner
- UTSA at Texas TEX 30–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Arizona State vs Kansas ASU 24–17 · replay 8% for the winner
- Marshall at Missouri State MRSH 30–24 · replay 22% for the winner