SEC · 2026 season, in progress
Kentucky Wildcats: luck and expected wins
Kentucky is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.8 wins. Luck added 0.2: the 60th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.
2026, game by game
How often Kentucky wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Youngstown State | W 45–13 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | vs Alabama | L 17–45 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 3 | @ Texas A&M | W 31–21 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 4 | vs South Alabama | W 45–21 | 100% | 0 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Kentucky win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | at South Carolina |  South Carolina by 0.7 | 48% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | vs LSU |  LSU by 7.7 | 32% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | at Oklahoma |  Oklahoma by 6.0 | 36% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | vs Vanderbilt |  Kentucky by 4.0 | 60% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | at Tennessee |  Tennessee by 10.6 | 26% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | vs Florida |  Florida by 6.3 | 35% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | at Missouri |  Missouri by 2.9 | 43% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | vs Louisville | Kentucky by 2.7 | 56% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Kentucky’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-snap flags | −0.02 | −1.4 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.03 | −5.1 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.08 | −15.1 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Kentucky takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 10 | @ Auburn | W 10–3 | 71% | +29 |
| 2026 Week 3 | @ Texas A&M | W 31–21 | 79% | +21 |
| 2025 Week 3 | vs Eastern Michigan | W 48–23 | 90% | +10 |
| 2025 Week 1 | vs Toledo | W 24–16 | 94% | +6 |
| 2025 Week 12 | vs Tennessee Tech | W 42–10 | 97% | +3 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Kentucky would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 8 | vs Texas | L 13–16 | 93% | −93 |
| 2025 Week 2 | vs Ole Miss | L 23–30 | 22% | −22 |
| 2025 Week 9 | vs Tennessee | L 34–56 | 7% | −7 |
| 2025 Week 5 | @ South Carolina | L 13–35 | 5% | −5 |
| 2025 Week 14 | @ Louisville | L 0–41 | 2% | −2 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5–7 | 5.8 | −0.8 | 2–2 | – |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Toledo | W 24–16 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 2 | vs Ole Miss | L 23–30 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 3 | vs Eastern Michigan | W 48–23 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 5 | @ South Carolina | L 13–35 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 6 | @ Georgia | L 14–35 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 8 | vs Texas | L 13–16 | 93% | −93 |
| Week 9 | vs Tennessee | L 34–56 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 10 | @ Auburn | W 10–3 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 11 | vs Florida | W 38–7 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 12 | vs Tennessee Tech | W 42–10 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 13 | @ Vanderbilt | L 17–45 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 14 | @ Louisville | L 0–41 | 2% | −2 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- SEC teams by luck
- SEC:
Alabama, 
Arkansas, 
Auburn, Florida, 
Georgia, LSU, 
Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, 
Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, 
Texas, 
Texas A&M, 
Vanderbilt
How many wins does Kentucky have in 2026?
3–1 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 2.8 wins.
Was Kentucky lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: +0.2 wins of luck, the 60th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Kentucky’s luckiest season?
2026: 3–1 from play worth 2.8 wins, +0.2 of luck. The unluckiest: 2025, 5–7 from play worth 5.8 (−0.8).