Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Kentucky at Auburn, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Kentucky beat Auburn 10–3, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
An off day for Auburn: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Kentucky it would win 74% of the time; with this day’s form, 29%. The numbers
Before kickoff Auburn was a 77% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:37 left): Kentucky converted 3rd & 11, worth 9 points of win probability to Kentucky.
Final
 Kentucky Wildcats | 10 |
|---|---|
 Auburn Tigers | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Kentucky lucky · −29 Auburn
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kentucky wins 7, Auburn wins 3.
- 1 UK 24 AUB 0
- 2 UK 17 AUB 0
- 3 UK 21 AUB 7
- 4 UK 17 AUB 6
- 5 UK 7 AUB 0
- 6 UK 17 AUB 13
- 7 UK 10 AUB 7
- 8 UK 7 AUB 10
- 9 UK 7 AUB 13
- 10 UK 0 AUB 13
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Auburn
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Kentucky it would win 74% of the time; with this day’s form, 29%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
45 points apart for Auburn: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky offenseEPA per play gained | −0.03 | −0.02 | worse by 0.01 |
| Kentucky defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.15 | +0.08 | better by 0.23 |
| Auburn offenseEPA per play gained | −0.15 | +0.03 | worse by 0.18 |
| Auburn defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.03 | +0.03 | better by 0.07 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kentucky wins 71% of them, Auburn 29%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kentucky by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kentucky by 17+ | 19.9% |
| Kentucky by 9–16 | 22.4% |
| Kentucky by 1–8 | 25.2% |
| Level after regulation | 7.5% |
| Auburn by 1–8 | 16.5% |
| Auburn by 9–16 | 6.6% |
| Auburn by 17+ | 1.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Kauwe, 48 yds made · 58% expected
- A. McPherson, 27 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: Kentucky 3 for 20 yards, Auburn 4 for 26 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 6:32 | False Start on Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% AUB +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:38 | Offside on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UK +0.1 pts |
| Q2 1:22 | False Start on Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% AUB +0.4 pts |
| Q3 9:21 | Holding on Auburn, 6 yards, wiping out the play | +5% UK +1.4 pts |
| Q3 6:53 | False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% UK +0.8 pts |
| Q4 14:17 | Holding on Auburn, 10 yards | +3% UK +0.8 pts |
| Q4 3:52 | Holding on Kentucky, 10 yards | +1% AUB +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Auburn’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:58 | Kentucky converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +5% UK | UK: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 1:42 | Auburn was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +5% UK | AUB: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 12:08 | Kentucky converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +9% UK | UK: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 10:37 | Kentucky converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +9% UK | UK: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 9:21 | Holding on Auburn, 6 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% UK | UK: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 3:58 | Auburn was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +4% UK | AUB: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 0:39 | Kentucky converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +8% UK | UK: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 7:15 | Kentucky converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +6% UK | UK: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kentucky 46% · Auburn 54%
- Final margin
- Kentucky by 7
- Luck in points
- 7.6 for Kentucky
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Auburn by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Kentucky 71% · Auburn 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Kentucky · 
Auburn
More from Week 10 2025
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Georgia vs Florida UGA 24–20 · replay 66% for the winner
- Vanderbilt at Texas TEX 34–31 · replay 74% for the winner
- South Carolina at Ole Miss MISS 30–14 · replay 86% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner
- Michigan State at Minnesota MINN 23–20 · replay 41% for the winner
- West Virginia at Houston WVU 45–35 · replay 42% for the winner