luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025

Washington State at Oregon State, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

Oregon State beat Washington State 10–7, but the replays lean toward Washington State: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to Oregon State.

Before kickoff Washington State was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:09 left): Washington State was stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 13 points of win probability to Oregon State.

Final

Washington State Cougars 7
Oregon State Beavers 10

November 1, 2025 · Reser Stadium · Closing line: Washington State −3.5

Luck index +73 Oregon State very lucky · −73 Washington State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington State wins 7, Oregon State wins 3.

  1. 1 WSU 44 ORST 14
  2. 2 WSU 22 ORST 0
  3. 3 WSU 20 ORST 2
  4. 4 WSU 21 ORST 7
  5. 5 WSU 17 ORST 6
  6. 6 WSU 14 ORST 7
  7. 7 WSU 23 ORST 20
  8. 8 WSU 17 ORST 19
  9. 9 WSU 7 ORST 14
  10. 10 WSU 13 ORST 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington State wins 73% of them, Oregon State 27%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Oregon State by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington State by 17+28.2%
Washington State by 9–1622.7%
Washington State by 1–819.6%
Level after regulation4.7%
Oregon State by 1–813.9%
Oregon State by 9–167.2%
Oregon State by 17+3.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 points to Oregon State: the final margin was Oregon State by 3, without the luck Oregon State by 2.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Washington State 9 for 75 yards, Oregon State 5 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:11 False Start on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ORST +1.1 pts
Q1 2:17 Ineligible Downfield on Washington State, 5 yards +1% ORST +0.6 pts
Q2 11:24 Holding on Washington State, 10 yards +3% ORST +1.3 pts
Q2 7:21 Offside on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WSU +0.9 pts
Q2 7:11 Face Mask on Oregon State, 15 yards +4% WSU +1.6 pts
Q2 6:46 False Start on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ORST +0.4 pts
Q2 4:55 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Washington State, 15 yards 0% ORST +1.6 pts
Q2 0:52 Pass Interference on Oregon State, 15 yards +6% WSU +2.3 pts
Q3 13:03 Holding on Washington State, 10 yards +2% ORST +0.6 pts
Q4 14:27 Offside on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% ORST +1.2 pts
Q4 11:59 Holding on Washington State, 10 yards +2% ORST +0.6 pts
Q4 9:04 Holding on Washington State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% ORST +2.3 pts
Q4 1:05 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Oregon State, 10 yards +2% WSU +0.4 pts
Q4 0:00 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Oregon State, 10 yards 0% WSU 0.0 pts

When it happened

Oregon State’s chance of winning

As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Oregon State was ahead in it, below while Washington State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:01 Washington State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +4% WSU WSU: Punt
2 Q2 0:52 Pass Interference on Oregon State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% WSU WSU: Touchdown
3 Q3 4:34 Washington State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +4% ORST WSU: Punt
4 Q4 14:27 Offside on Washington State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% ORST ORST: Punt
5 Q4 9:04 Holding on Washington State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% ORST ORST: Punt
6 Q4 6:55 Washington State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% ORST WSU: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 6:15 Washington State was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% ORST WSU: End of game
8 Q4 1:09 Washington State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +13% ORST –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington State 30% · Oregon State 70%

Final margin
Oregon State by 3
Luck in points
0.1 for Oregon State
Luck-adjusted margin
Oregon State by 2.9
Replay with same day's form
Washington State 73% · Oregon State 27% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Washington State · Oregon State

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