Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Miami at SMU, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
SMU beat Miami 26–20, but the replays lean toward Miami: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: pre-snap flags alone were worth 10 points of win probability to SMU.
Before kickoff Miami was a 71% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:24 left): S. Keltner missed a 42-yard field goal, worth 13 points of win probability to Miami.
Final (OT)
 Miami Hurricanes | 20 |
|---|---|
 SMU Mustangs | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +68 SMU very lucky · −68 Miami
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Miami wins 7, SMU wins 3.
- 1 MIA 35 SMU 3
- 2 MIA 27 SMU 2
- 3 MIA 31 SMU 14
- 4 MIA 23 SMU 10
- 5 MIA 23 SMU 14
- 6 MIA 13 SMU 7
- 7 MIA 38 SMU 35
- 8 MIA 21 SMU 24
- 9 MIA 28 SMU 35
- 10 MIA 24 SMU 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Miami wins 68% of them, SMU 32%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: SMU by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Miami by 17+ | 28.1% |
| Miami by 9–16 | 18.3% |
| Miami by 1–8 | 19.4% |
| Level after regulation | 5.6% |
| SMU by 1–8 | 14.4% |
| SMU by 9–16 | 8.6% |
| SMU by 17+ | 5.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Davis, 22 yds made · 94% expected
- S. Keltner, 43 yds made · 67% expected
- C. Davis, 45 yds made · 64% expected
- S. Keltner, 42 yds missed · 69% expected
- S. Keltner, 38 yds made · 75% expected
Penalties: Miami 12 for 96 yards, SMU 3 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:16 | Offside on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SMU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 6:39 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SMU +1.1 pts |
| Q1 2:50 | Illegal Snap on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SMU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 13:52 | Pass Interference on Miami, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +1% SMU +3.1 pts |
| Q2 13:21 | Holding on Miami, 10 yards | 0% MIA +0.4 pts |
| Q2 7:46 | Holding on Miami, 10 yards | +2% SMU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 6:57 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SMU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 4:26 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SMU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 10:07 | Roughing the Passer on SMU, 15 yards | +5% MIA +1.6 pts |
| Q3 1:37 | Pass Interference on Miami, 11 yards | +5% SMU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 7:00 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% MIA +1.5 pts |
| Q4 3:43 | Ineligible Downfield on Miami, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +12% SMU +2.4 pts |
| Q4 3:22 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SMU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 1:08 | Unnecessary Roughness on Miami, 15 yards | 0% SMU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 0:47 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards | +11% MIA +0.9 pts |
When it happened
SMU’s chance of winning
As low as 9% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 4:03 | Miami was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +11% SMU | MIA: Field goal |
| 2 | Q4 10:17 | Miami was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +9% SMU | MIA: Field goal |
| 3 | Q4 8:05 | SMU converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +7% SMU | SMU: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q4 7:00 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% MIA | MIA: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 6:24 | S. Keltner missed a 42-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him | +13% MIA | SMU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 3:43 | Ineligible Downfield on Miami, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +12% SMU | SMU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 3:05 | Miami converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +11% MIA | MIA: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:47 | Holding on SMU, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +11% MIA | MIA: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Miami 15% · SMU 85%
- Final margin
- SMU by 6
- Luck in points
- 1.0 for Miami
- Luck-adjusted margin
- SMU by 7.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Miami 68% · SMU 32% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Miami · 
SMU
More from Week 10 2025
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner
- Virginia at California UVA 31–21 · replay 54% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at Stanford PITT 35–20 · replay 83% for the winner
- North Carolina at Syracuse UNC 27–10 · replay 94% for the winner
- Louisville at Virginia Tech LOU 28–16 · replay 95% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Boston College ND 25–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Florida State FSU 42–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner